Martin vs The world Analysis thread

Yolo, good observation on the ease with which our LSDB can be traded.  The good news is that a particularly powerful square for it to be on is b7, which could probably be made available just in the nick of time.  The board is very tight, and with no margin of error on timing… just hope we can parry each and every threat, as well as impose our own threats to eventually free up our right flank.

The easy, no brainer moves for Martin are now over.  Upcoming, he'll have to commit on specific lines of attack, and he may overlook peculiar binds that may take place for his pieces (as well as ours) when he decides on how he wants to proceed.

How about Nc6 now?

Do you see a good line?

    …          Nc6
Nxc6+    Qxc6
Red1+      Kc7
  e5

So, it isn't entirely without merit.  And this is just a cursory inspection.

If the White Knight avoids the trade, we might end up with a pawn at d4 and could we marshal 3 defenders in the time black could assemble 3 attackers?

Ok, I'm going to start putting in a few hours in my usual style, with Editing to keep things compact.

We probably will migrate to a new page, and I'll post a new diagram then, and copy my analyses below it, as needed.

…    O-O-O

• Red1   e5
  • Nc2   Qa4
    Nb4   Qxb3
    axb3   Bd7
    Bf3     Re7
    Nd5    Knight on d5 spells trouble  
  • Nc2   Qc7
    Nb4   Bd7
    • Nd5    Qc6 (or Qc8)
      Qb4+  Kg8
      Ne7+   Rxe7
      Qxe7   Deadly  
  • Nc2    Qc8
    Nb4    Bd7
    Nd5    Kg8
    • Qa3   Nc6
      •  Bf3    Nd4
        Ne7+  Rxe7
        Qxe7   Be6
        Bxe6     
    • Qa3   Nc6
      • Bf3     Kh8
        Nc7    Qxc7
        Rxd7  Qb8
        Rxf7   Shock & Awe   
    • Qa3    Kh8
      Nb7   Disaster

Have seen enough.  Cannot play e5 after we castle long.

Have a feeling we have to get the heavy artillery off the board.

We have to get our pieces out ASAP.

  …    Nc6 as our first move

• Nxc6+   Qxc6         forced Queen move
  Red1+     Kc7          cannot castle; King on offense
  •   e5    Qc5
      f4      g6
     Rd3  Rhd8
    Rcd1  Rxd3
    Rxd3  Rc8
       ?      Kb8

With careful play we might be lucky.

Pros:  White is constrained
           Black is stronger on White's weak side
           Split pawn liability haunts White
           White's weak pawn can be fully attacked

Cons:  Have only worked one example
            Have to decide in 3 days
            

It has only been glimpsed.  If forced trade downs happen, then yes, it could be good for us.

It would be great if more players on the thread would try their luck with it; weigh in.

I know we like the idea of castling long, but there is something to not castling, something good if we can just stabilize the situation, get it so that it is Draw-ish, and then see if both sides want to put the time in for an unlikely Win.  I could see Martin offering a Draw if he saw too much work in front of him, with slim odds for a Win.  We're Black… a Draw is perfectly acceptable, imho.

I'll focus even more on Nc6, tomorrow.

I'm starting to like it.  I can smell blood.

There's only so many lines to it!

Not only that but we can castle long in some instances.

Release the hounds!

Here's the other, cool Nc6...

Check it out!

Takes some genius move-playing, but with enough time to think it over, it's possible to formulate a Win.

The classic Rook-Rook-Bishop on Queen and Bishop.

Once Red1 is played, it's game on!

White has surprisingly little leverage after the first Check by the Queen.  In fact, Black will be attacking almost immediately.

Would expect an e5, and we then play g6.

Those White split pawns may be ripe for the picking.

Ok… we'll see what happens… it's only a game, after all.

Ry, if Rd1 for Martin, which may force our hand, I think we can get Martin to Draw, if we play our "cards" right

If he pushes his luck, he could suffer a Loss.  (But we can lose, too.)

It's that close.

Let's see what he's made of, now that you've played Nc6.

Here's a forced pawn loss for us.

At least that pesky Knight is gone.

There's may be a way out of it, but there are a lot of possibilities to investigate.

Better to see what Martin does first.  With our Queen in reprise, he has two choices to place his Queen on the DS center diagonal.

Yeah definitely seems a little risky Nc6, but its too late now. I think our position is worse but still playable. Practically it's going to be hard with the pressure on our king.

Hopefully he goes for 2 Rooks against a Q

This sort of thing is what I meant by I had only "glimpsed" the Nc6 move and would "focus even more on Nc6, tomorrow."  It needed more analysis.  We're almost certain to lose, now.

Ry, you made the move without taking a vote.  PlayYoloChess, gyrados06 — even you and myself — were mostly in agreement that O-O-O would be the move.  The only thing we would not do is follow up with an immediate e5 since that would be really bad.

I was actually shocked when I saw Nc6 played with so little "thorough" analysis.

The reason Martin is probably taking so long right now is he is trying to figure out why we didn't castle long, and he has probably found major short comings in our playing Nc6.

Oh well…

If Martin plays his Queen to b2, like I had diagramed, then we can play Qb6 after his e5, which would only lead to a doubling of our b-file pawns, worst case.  But if he plays his Queen to c3 instead of b2, then he solves that tempo loss for him.  Still looking for a way out of this… 

There's a little hope in the left corner.

Here are the moves — they're real — but far flung for us.

I'll place a diagram up to the castle long then list the moves until after the DB move, and then diagram to the finish.

Coming up…

It may be the best we can do.

   …   O-O-O
  e5     Qc7
Bxh7              This is where we lose the pawn.

… and we're still alive.

So, it doesn't look like all is lost, after all.  Whew!

Martin won't play the line, at all.  He'll try something else.

I'm not done yet… have to see what else he might try for his first couple of moves.

Apologies to Ry… I did oversell it yesterday.

Back to work on this… still liking Nc6.

Yeah, but stick to the tallying way you always did the vote, where you obviate the vote count in a final post with enough time for anyone who wants to weigh in, to weigh in.