Are Online ratings getting tougher?

Does anyone else feel like Online chess has been getting tougher?  Ratings deflation, perhaps?  I've been feeling that way for a little while -- my peak rating was around 2250, and I don't feel like I've been getting worse, but I've been struggling to hold it over 2100 lately.

I just assumed it was my own perception, and that I really have been not playing as well.  However, today I noticed that my 2104 rating is #3135 of 288657, 98.9% percentile.  I swear that 6-12 months ago, a 2100 rating was no more than 97th percentile.  So perhaps I'm not crazy after all?

Am I misremembering history?  What's your experience/impression?  If this is really happening, any ideas on why would that be?  I've never seen a chess rating system do that.

I think this is part of normal fluctuation of your rating, and I think this happens very commonly.

* If one assumes that ratings will vary a little with time, then they will fluctuate around a value that is somewhat lower than your peak value, of course.

* Sometimes, while first reaching your peak rating, you may have been especially motivated and been playing especially well. Or you may have had a lucky streak with some successful games in a row because your opponents' playing style happened to suit yours well.

* In some cases, after your rating goes down for some games in such a way, it can rise up even higher than your first peak, for example if one has learned some more about which openings you can successfully use against which kind of strong opposition, or which amount of time and dedication can be necessary to successfully play at some certain rating level.

Spiffe, I've been wondering the same thing. I was consistently around 1800 a year ago and can't get unstuck from 1700 now. My USCF rating is 1787. Many of the lower rated players seem to play extremely well. I may not be getting better, but am I getting worse?

ilmago, I'm not assuming the system got tougher because my rating went down.  I would -- and did -- assume the same thing you said.

What made me pause, though, was the percentile relative to the pool at large -- unless I'm misremembering (possible), I think my percentile has actually gone up, even as my rating has stayed the same/gone down.

2010 02 08

Players:  88182

Average Rating: 1384

Average Glicko RD: 119

*************************************

2010 06 26

Players: 289029

Average Rating: 1343

Average Glicko RD: 137

http://www.chess.com/echess/players.html

If we have hit a plateau and the young guns are improving over last 2 years then it is possible that maintaining old rating would become difficult. However my problem is that my percentile has jumped from 90% to 95% in one day - with no change in rating !

It is a little tricky now with both an overall deflation in ratings and a rise in ranking.

For the ranking issue, there was a major influx of players. Seems a large number were rated very low.

http://www.chess.com/forum/view/community/in-case-youre-wondering-why-the-number-of-members-jumped

At least one other noticed a jump in ranking with no increase in rating.

http://www.chess.com/forum/view/off-topic/why-did-my--go-from-90-to-95

Must've been "close-the-cheaters'-account day" ... toss a few 2900 players and the average rating goes down a bit ;)