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Does Karjakin even have a "puncher's chance"?

  • #181

    Magnus looks a little bit stronger than the rest. i hold him as a 60 percent favourite to defend the title until he meets equal strenght.  There is a player out there that might be more talented, but he is only ten years old.  In 2022 he will be 16. They call him Praggo.

  • #182

    Note that I did say before the match started, even if it got into a rapid playoff, Carlsen has a large edge in that as well, perhaps even more so than in classical time controls! And sure enough, Carlsen easily won the tiebreak. So realistically Karjakin would have had to get a +1 score after the 12 games to win the championship. So it very much helps that Carlsen is also very good in short time controls.

  • #183

    And for the record, the last 4 WCC's have been won by the rating favorite. Three Magnus matches, and the Anand-Gelfand match.

  • #184
    Elubas wrote:

    He's getting crushed. Carlsen is way too good.

    Have you admitted you were wrong yet?

  • #185
    SilentKnighte5 wrote:
    Elubas wrote:

    He's getting crushed. Carlsen is way too good.

    Have you admitted you were wrong yet?

    Sure, I'll admit I was wrong. But I think you seem to care too much about that. It seems like people like to just make predictions because they feel good about themselves because they were right or something, when all it really means is, you guessed and were right. Why be ashamed or proud of guesses, for the most part?

    But I don't think I was wrong to expect him to be beaten comfortably, possibly by a lot -- it's just that, your expectations will be wrong sometimes even when they are reasonable. That's what I actually meant by "crushed." It was casual hyperbole. I know that there is always someone who will hate it when a person does that, but then, it's a pretty common thing in real life, isn't it? People tend to exaggerate a little, and be a little loose. Let's just be happy that I didn't say either player sucked or something like that. It was simply about how the two players stacked up. Really, both of these players are incredibly good, as are all the 2700 players. That's not lost on me at all. Karjakin is merely less of a chess god than Magnus, yet in some sense they both have godly ability.

    But, fine, we can decide to hate each other because of predictions. Or, we can actually get along as human beings, and enjoy each other. I actually want to have fun with you, even if we had a different prediction. Perhaps you, on the other hand, just want me to be wrong, and enjoy it when that happens. We're different in that way, then.

  • #186

    But yeah, there is a lot to be said about underdogs being underestimated. I think that happens a lot. Sometimes, I'll put more faith in the underdog than most other people are. But sometimes, I'll put faith in the person expected to win. Just because this time I didn't side with the underdog doesn't mean I don't understand the concept that there can be bias towards the favorite (or the underdog, for that matter). Sure there can. I considered that in my prediction. I asked myself, do I have real reasons to expect Carlsen to win by a lot, or am I just arbitrarily favoring him so much because I like him? So I dug for real reasons. I'm quite aware of how we want to be sceptical of our beliefs.

    Sometimes, though, even after scepticism, you still side with the favorite. That was the case here. The point of scepticism isn't to favor the underdog, the point of it is to just make sure that, whatever side you did choose to favor, you did so with a lot of consideration. And I did. I of course could have spent eight hours a day making my prediction, but all in all, I definitely thought about my prediction quite a bit, and it happened to be that Carlsen would win pretty comfortably. It, indeed, happened to be wrong.

  • #187

    I think that the match just happened to be one where the better player underperformed quite a lot, Carlsen missed wins in game 3 and 4 that he usually finds, and overpressed in a way he usually doesn't in game 8. If they play the match a few more times my guess is that Carlsen usually would win it with a bigger margin, but in one single event it is always difficult to predict with any certainty what will happen.

  • #188

    Of course. Carlsen is only slightly better. but a lot better in faster games, so that decided. Although I was rooting for Karjakin.

  • #189

    As the last years, Karjakin still has problems to get into the top ten. To me it feels as if he lacks something to ever reach a top three spot.

  • #190

    I think that Magnus is Euwe and eventhough he doesnt seem like him, he isnt really from Nord lands or real Europe and is making a show to his Mercedes face engine or Goths(germany) propaganda...

  • #191
    fabelhaft wrote:

    As the last years, Karjakin still has problems to get into the top ten. To me it feels as if he lacks something to ever reach a top three spot.

    I think all those super GMs between rating 2810 and 2770 are  equally strong. One week Aronian is on top , another week, So, another week Karjakin, another week Caruana,, another week MVL and so it goes. Karjakin showed true superstrenght when he defended  MVL in Sinquefield 2017 to a draw when MVL got his preparation in, and Karjakin had find a lot of only-moves to stay alive. MVL was fantastic  now, it was his week. He had prepared extremely well and was in top shape. All those players and most of the top 15 is roughly on the same level, one step below Magnus.

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