Does Karjakin even have a "puncher's chance"?

We will see if any of the prep comes to be a factor. Anand's only win against Carlsen, in match play, was solely due to the opening.

I agree with you that, if Karjakin does amazing prep, he may catch Carlsen off-guard.

I recall a certain Carlsen-Topalov game below that displayed Carlsen's potential fault.

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Is Karjakin from Liverpool?

They do like stealing cars over there... I'll get my coat.

Karjakin (assuming he gets a draw today) has not lost yet, but has not given a single indication that he is capable of beating Magnus.

That's pretty much the definition of a puncher's chance. These two are heavyweights. If Carlsen lets his guard down and blunders even once, Karjakin could land a knock-out blow.

Carlsen has shown he's in a different class than Karjakin, but Karjakin could still pull the upset.

Karjakin and his team have excellent opening preparation. If Carlsen falls to Karjakin's preparation, Karjakin will beat Carlsen without mercy.

"If Carlsen lets his guard down and blunders even once"

Which in itself is very unlikely. Remember that we're talking about elite level chess. And it wouldn't be a knockout blow. It would just be -1.

It's impressive that Karjakin is playing great defense, but that's all he has to show for at this point. Magnus is playing his bread and butter chess, even if he hasn't converted yet.

We haven't seen reason to think Karjakin can give Magnus problems in this area, either. Magnus always seems to get the type of position he wants.

Everything is going Karjakin's way right now to pull off the upset.  Carlsen has had a winning position on the board in back to back games, but wasn't able to convert.   To be fair they were very theoretical computer lines, but they were won games.

In a short match like this, you need to take advantage of every opportunity.  It will be easy to look back in hindsight and say "Carlsen could've won the match but..." based on games 3 and 4.

Well no I think it's just the opposite. Karjakin being on the defensive (one of those games with the white pieces!) shows how difficult it is for him to even think about winning a game himself. I don't get why people are always so eager to make the opposite claim of what is being clearly suggested by the evidence. Basically if Karjakin was playing much better, e.g., if he got two comfortable draws in games 3 and 4 instead of fighting draws, people would be saying Carlsen is doing better in the match, but because Karjakin came close to losing two games in the match, he's somehow doing better.

Carlsen may feel frustrated and disappointed,   because he let the win slip. Karjakin may feel relief, for he managed to survive two very difficult and unpleasant games for him (by the skin of his teeth). It is reasonable to assume that Karjakin will  be  reluctant to let Carlsen torture him again in inferior/semi-lost positions ,and therefore  I expect him to play more assertively/aggressively in the next game.

"It is reasonable to assume that Karjakin will  be  reluctant to let Carlsen torture him again in inferior/semi-lost positions"

It would have been wrong to say that after game 3, though. Really the match situation is the same. You can predict how the players will react but it's hard to do so in any non-arbitrary way. Karjakin might be tired and then play worse. Also speculative, just in the other direction. What's more objective is that Carlsen has been playing much better, and Karjakin has not shown a single weapon that will put Carlsen on the defensive. Instead it looks like Magnus will often get a free shot to win.

Not to mention that Carlsen has probably the most patience out of any player in the game. That's why he is a grinder in the first place.

I still think Carlsen is likely to win with +2, perhaps even +3. But I acknowledge that in this shortened format, Karjakin has a "puncher's chance".

Maybe he is trying to get another 8 draws in a row. But that's very wishful thinking, especially since he's already had two really close calls. I think Giri would be much better at this kind of strategy. I don't know if his defending is better, but he seems to be better at "killing the game," so to speak :)

I dont know if Karjakin was nervous, but if he was, it was perfect to start with four draws. I guess he has warmed up, adapted to New York and the matchenvironment, and is more comfortable an ready to rumble now.

Karjakin missed some chances to put pressure on Carlsen today. Maybe there is hope after all. 

I STILL like Carlsen's chances to win with +2, but Karjakin showed that he definitely has a puncher's chance today.

I'm a pretty good player, but I don't think I have a chance.

if Sir J Karryokkin does not take his chances, he can't win, and talking of punchers chances, if this was a boxing match Sir J would be advised to not even enter the ring.

Since in the case of a tie Carlsen does not retain the title, Karjakin, strictly speaking, is not necessarily required to win even a single game before the tie breakers. So long as Carlsen cannot win a game from him, Karjakin has every reason to be happy IMO.. And he has been doing very well, irrespective of the fact that there have been quite a few less- than- perfect moments for both players, probably due to nerves.