Does Karjakin even have a "puncher's chance"?

I'd say somewhat of both. Karjakin's play has not been brilliant in the sense of just totally outplaying the other guy, but it has been extremely solid, which is also a large achievement. In theory, maybe you can say, all Karjakin had to do was play for a draw, but in practice that's very hard against Magnus because Magnus is extremely patient and punishing. Basically, the fact that Karjakin didn't outright crack for 9 games is very impressive, and even managed to win a game. You would think at some point, he would have cracked under the pressure and given Magnus's play some dividends, but he did not, until finally in the 10th game.

Well like what Magnus often says: Just keep applying pressure and they crack. It's worked for Magnus at the very highest level. This time, Karjakin just didn't do that. That takes outstanding concentration and nerves.

But Magnus has not been playing at his usual level, I agree. Some of the earlier games should have been textbook Magnus wins, but he let them slip.

Perhaps that's why Magnus isn't up +2 or +3: The games where he blew his winning chances are games he would generally win.

"The games where he blew his winning chances are games he would generally win"

Yes, I have been surprised by many of his moves here, he has been playing well below his best. Also the game he won included a big blunder with lots of time on the clock, not to mention the games where he missed wins he usually finds, and the game he lost where he could have drawn at will on numerous occasions. But such things happen now and then, not even Kasparov was always playing at his best, as the match against Kramnik showed.

Chess isnt chess only. This is a psycological thriller, and Karjakin is better prepared with psycologs and a huge secundant team from the state of Russia. Magnus is on his own. The state of Norway doesnt pay a cent, and his team is only them he pays from his own pocket.  The Karjakinteam has hammered on Carlsen weakest psykopoint, and they have created cracks. Therefore he have done some moves with a boiled brain. Therefore he hasnt been up at his best in each and every move. I was shocked by his last blunder in game ten. A beginners error. He hit the bishop on e6, giving Karjakin an open f-line with rook and queendoubling. That move he spent maybe five seconds on. A good Magnus would have spent at least 30 seconds, and not gone for it. That mistake is typically what I do. Playing one move in the game too fast, and end up in deep trouble.

Magnus is only 25 years old. It is very difficult to beat Serjosha at so young age. Therefore he postponed the desicive games to wednesday, when he turns 26. Magnus 26 is terrifying strong.

An indication that Karjakin was going to be a fantastic matchplayer is the fact that he is psycologically and physically very strong. And he has a big nation, and a big team supporting him. Besides that . He is (as all 2750+ players) an extremely good chessplayer. Maybe he is 50 rating below Magnus, but everybody knows that 50 ratingpoints doesnt matter much when the game is going. Its only a slight advantage.

Over the course of a whole match, the difference is large. Drawing any individual game against the world champion is doable at Karjakin's level, but to do it consistently is very hard. Anand had a lot of trouble with this and cracked at certain moments.

For the record Karjakin's rating difference with Magnus is more than 50 points.

Elubas, official ratinggap is more than 50, and the liverating less.

It's ridiculous to think Karjakin doesn't have a chance lol

People tend to really underestimate Karjakin and assume Carlsen is almost unbeatable.

Kramnik defeated Kasparov from an initial rating point "deficit" of seventy points. Just saying. 

It's ridiculous to think Karjakin has a 0% chance; it's not ridiculous to think Karjakin has (well, had) a low chance. So it first of all depends on what exactly we mean when we say "chance."

Sure, I'm aware of that. One explicable occurrence is not going to motivate me to completely change my view.

I have seen a calculation based on rating that gives Magnus ca 70 percent chance in the playoff. The problem with that mathematic is that the rating is based on previous results, not current strenght, and Karjakin looks like he has trained very good the last year and partially closed the gap. Magnus and Sergei doesnt have the exact same progression. Karjakin had worse conditions as a teenager and improved a bit slower then, but the last year Karjakin, fully backed by Putin, had better conditions.

I predict Karjakin to win with a 38% chance of me being correct.

he is winner this time remember my words sergey

It's funny though how people with last names starting with "Ca" or "Ka" are prone to be high level chess players. Capablanca? Karpov, Kasparov, Carlsen, Karjakin... Chess strength is not related to intelligence in general. Thick eye brows was a hypothesis. But, nope, not related. In reality chess strength IS related to good memory and capability for long term planning (proven by science), and, of course, with the first two letters of one's last name. No doubt about that. Again, there is 100% probability that the next world champion's last name starts with Ca/Ka.  

To be fair, the "Ca" are mere coincidences, while the "Ka" can be credited to Russian culture.

Coincidence? Sure. But a funny one ain't it...