It's probably a draw, but black has to be very careful.
Kd6 is a blunder, the king must stay with the pawns
Three Pawns Versus Two
3P+K v 2P+K is usually a win for the 3P side. Exceptions occur with stupid setups (3 pawns on the 2nd v 2 pawns about to promote) that you aren't asking about, and:
- The pawn situation is blocked, and the superior king cannot enter.
But it's usually a win for the 3Ps. Diagrams for exceptions:
Naturally, there may be problems with my analyses here (entirely off-the-cuff positions and lines) but I think this illustrates the problems for the superior side.
That's quite a good way of looking at it. Although usually the culprit behind the draw is a rook-pawn remaining after all the simplifications thanks to the side of the board. (See my previous post)
For amusement, a situation where the edge of the board makes a difference rather than the rook-pawn: Drawn here, drawn a file to the right, but white wins a file to the left.
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With the pawns on the same side, when is it won for the person with three? Computer game from a 3P v 2P position: