What's a realistic rating to shoot for in a year's time for a beginner?

I agree with what you are saying. There is a difference in online ratings and an OTB rating, but unfortunately it is the age of covid. Online is all we got. At least in my city chess clubs are still closed.

At least on line you do not need to worry about someone trying to win with strong body odor, drooling and bad breath.

If you spend an hour a day doing tactics puzzles, thinking through the solution before you make a move, then you should be 1000 or so in a year.

I'm just curious, how much time do you spend on chess each day? I've played for about a year as well and my rating goes up and down between 900-1050. I'd love to reach 1500 this year and appreciate the pointers. 😊

yeah... Just when I started to love chess, all the clubs were closed because of COVID. I love chess and I want to improve my rating not for the numbers, but to have some idea if I'm improving. My ultimate goal is to play in an in-person chess tournament with a variety of people! I think that would be an awesome experience, but minimum ratings are often pretty high, so I know I need a lot more practice!

I have been playing "serious" chess for about the last 4 years now, starting when I joined chess.com. I was definitely a beginner, and my blitz rating literally went down to below 600, and it took several months to get better and actually have a reliable rating. Now I have a rapid rating of about 1100, (since I mostly play rapid chess now), and my blitz rating, at its highest point, was just over 1200. 

I also started playing tournament chess in the summer of 2019 and my rating is way low because I haven't played in enough tournaments. In total, I have played in 3 tournaments, 2 of which were at the beginning of this year, before covid. I have really struggled to play chess consistently, so I am going to TRY to play more this year, but it is just hard to find the time and stay committed.

If you are really spending 2 hours a day on chess, that's way more than I probably ever will. I'm guessing you should reach a rating of about 1300, at least. But chess is not just about numbers. Just immerse yourself in the game and I'm sure you will be amazed at the results.

try for 1200 imo

Hard to say because everyone is different - like @iAmNotThatGuy said, "try for 1200" or a reasonable goal like that and then slowly build from there with new goals in maybe 100 or 200 intervals.

Another consideration worth mentioning is HOW MUCH harder it is to gain rating at higher levels. Part of this is because of the math behind how the rating system works and part is because stronger players mess up less, so there is less margin for error to decide a chess game.

To illustrate how much tougher higher ratings are I'll give an example. Someone might go from 900 rating to 1000 in 2 or 3 weeks (I know someone who proudly did this), but a strong 2100 player may take 2 or 3 YEARS of study to reach 2200! A lot of factors go into how fast improvement comes, but a 1600 player most likely has a lot invested into their chess; more so than an average player. To reach 1600 level, they usually have really good opening principles. They almost never hang pieces outright (but might occasionally hang stuff to a fairly simple tactic). They generally have a strong sense of the basic endgames (like converting an extra pawn material advantage in a pawn endgame, or being able to checkmate with 2 Bishops + King vs King.) 

On the flip side, a 1600 probably has very little to no opening theory memorized (maybe half a dozen moves deep in common variations, but usually not more) and 1600 is probably about the time they begin exploring positional considerations greater with continuing that through at least 1800.

Everyone is different, but this is what I typically see in most "1600-play."

When I was 1600-ish I probably played chess about 3 hours a day on most days and just recently began playing longer time control games at a local chess club once a week. 

As I've been improving since then, I've come to learn even more emphasis on quality over quantity. A strict schedule may work for some, but at least for me: I never sit down with the intent of playing x-hours in this sitting. Sometimes it works out that way because I have some other event in the day etc, but I just try to learn what I can at my own pace; never let anyone rush you! With this said, I can afford to follow my own pace perhaps because I like spending a lot of time on chess - but again, everyone is different.

To be honest i only play / analyze one game per day(spending about 1.5 to 2 hours on them) but i used to spend around 4 hours a few days back but recently have been busy.

In my opinion what a lot of people don't do is "think" in chess and that's why they stop improving at a lower elo. We are truly blessed to be living in the era of stockfish which basically gives you the best move for each position so it's important to make use of it.

Pretty much all of my general chess understanding comes from chessnetwork youtube channel, hands down the BEST teacher of chess on the internet.  However i started seeing improvements only after i combined those understanding with increasing my visualization.  Basically, start stockfish, play two or three opening moves and then stop and think about your next move, take as long as you want. Think about what the opponent can or can't do, then make your move and see what the engine's reply is. If you were able to figure out the engine's reply beforehand then well done. However if you see the engine playing some other move then think about why that move is played and what if instead of that the engine played your move(the move you thought it would play before you played your move)

I strongly believe that one hour spent on analyzing and visualizing ONE sharp position and thinking about possibilities is way more beneficial than playing a full game

There may be something to this because I typically enjoy sharp chess and I've spent hours analyzing my games on several occasions. A friend of mine used to go over a few games I played (we did this about once a week for a few hours) and sometimes we would spend an hour just on one move in the game! We would go over variations, comment points and sometimes do a type of "dynamic analysis" where we disagree on the position, so I play the side I believe is better and they play the side they think is better. We would only continue for half a dozen moves this way in a fairly fast format, but just enough to clarify the position. Usually I was wrong and they were correct, but sometimes I ended up with the better position and so we would continue from the next critical point in the game. 

Learning chess doesn't need to be boring; it can be fun. Have the right mindset, have some good chess friends and be willing to put in the time/work to improve; it is certainly possible

I wouldn't worry about ratings, at this point.

Your rating increase will come, in time. It's inevitable that, if you continue on your chess journey, your rating will rise more and more, throughout the months/years.

What you should focus on, instead, is trying to learn whatever you can, in whatever way works best for you. Learning is the goal. The rating increases will happen on their own, as a natural byproduct of learning.

To put this into perspective: imagine a new martial arts student asking, "What's a realistic belt color that I should expect to have in a year's time?"

Any decent instructor would point out that this is entirely the wrong question to be asking.

Patience, young grasshopper. There is much to learn . . .

Post your first loss game then?

I think for the average chess enthusiast about 1000 year one, 1200 year two, 1350-1400 year three, 1500 year five, and maybe higher, but some get stuck at 1400-1500 for years. Of course there are differences between people, just like in life.

You are ~500 in rapid at the moment, aim for 1000-1200. You are new so I am assuming you will improve fast.

Stop hating on other people when they want to improve at the game and set goals for themselves. Not everyone wants to be a sad frustrated toxic person like you who stalls out games and flames people during them. 

great idea! im in roughly the same boat (started 11/1/20) and am interested in seeing you progress and how you accomplish it. good luck!

I've got 1400 daily and around 1200 rapid going from completely zero, not knowing the rules, and playing against the toddler AI on chessmaster lol. Could have been a fair bit more, if I knew what I was doing and didn't stop/start/stop/start.

Some tips

- practice tactics. Use the trainer here or on chesstempo. Make it the main part of your practice. Very important!

- research some openings and then stick with a narrow few openings, if you want to maximize your time and gains. Don't change constantly.

Link is playing up. Search "The United States Chess Federation - Greg on Building an Opening Repertoire (uschess.org)". Pick two and stick with them.

- learn endgames sooner rather than later. Learn them from books that treat them like puzzles so that they are fun, relaxing, and you enjoy doing them (such as Pandolfini's endgames and Chernev's endgames).

- analyze your games. Play slower games so that your moves mean something and each game means a bit more