Sometimes the best move may not be the one that yields the best probability of a win. An example of this is Tal, who often played unsound moves that raised more problems than his opponent could solve.
Thus presumably yielding the best probability of a win... :)
It depends from what point of view. A poor move may only be poor if the opponent can find the refutation. So a move that yields the highest probability of a win against a human may not yield the highest probability of a win against an 8-core computer calculating 25 moves deep.
To be concrete,consider a move that is slightly inferior but for which there is only one hard-to-find move that does not lose, vs a pedestrian "best" move for which there are 4 or more moves that maintain the equiliblium. In my view, the "inferior" move is better, especially in Blitz.For example, in the game above, 9. Ra1 may not be the best move, but after 10. Ne2 to counter the check, the only Black move (winning) is 10...Kd8, far from obvious and losing the ability to castle, which of course is refuted by the Rook sacrifice.
In sum, what I mean is that one could play every move in such a way that the opponent had only ONE good reply, he would almost always win (provided that that this one good reply did not win the game instantly...), because there are few players if any that can find the best move every time. Post-analyzing some of my games with a computer has shown cases where there were series of 10-moves where each side had 4 or more moves each time that did not change the balance of the game; clearly one is not going to get a won game in situations like this.
Sometimes the best move may not be the one that yields the best probability of a win. An example of this is Tal, who often played unsound moves that raised more problems than his opponent could solve. I am not Tal, but here is a Blitz game I played on the Chessbase site yesterday. The interesting move is the sacrifice of the b2 pawn. Although the sacrifice was unsound, the opponent couls not solve the threats.