He wouldn't go past 1800 chess.com turnbased.
Aronian blitz
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Interesting question, though hypothetical, and with several variables to deal with.
For any player to beat him 1 in every 2 games, he/she would have to be pretty highly rated, even taking the time differential into account. He may even still be above the 3 minute mark after 10 moves, with his opponent perhaps using more time as the game wears on (30 second increment is big though).
You would have to ask a mathematician for a good answer, but my 2 cents worth would be 'Expert' ± 2200 level.
Aronian is the world champion in blitz today. What ELO would his level of blitz play achieve in standard chess? I mean suppose he had 3' with 2" increment and his opponent 2hours with 30" increment. Suppose he wasn't allowed to think during the opponent's thinking time (I know, ridiculous circumstances, anyway). What ELO should this opponent have to have a 50% chance vs Aronian?