Does Karjakin have a good chance to beat Carlsen this fall?
Karjakin is the underdog, but not an easy opponent. It will be interesting to see how Carlsen does against a fit, young player.
If he won, would he really be considered a "real" world champion?
After he wins, over the next year, I think he would have to increase his world ranking and also win some tournaments. Otherwise it will probably be seen as something of a fluke.
One interesting outcome: if Carlsen demolishes his next few challengers, that might make Anand look pretty good.
Well, Anand was world champion for a long time. That makes him look pretty good already!
Karjakin is younger than Anand, but older than Carlsen. His rating has come up because of the Candidates, but it could easily sink again. We could end up having a match between a 2850 player and a 2750 player.
Anand was #2 for what seemed like decades. Then was WC only after Kasparov retired and until the next generation came along. He's not a fake world champ, but not one of the greatest either. At least IMO.
Age difference between Anand and Carlsen: ~252 months.
Age difference between Karjakin and Carlsen: ~11 months.
Recently, since Karjakin won the Candidates in Moscow, I've heard about how he's such a strong player, etc., and how he will be so hard for Carlsen to defeat in November. Of course, you should never take anyone with a high rating lightly. But I pulled the rating numbers off FIDE's website, and since January 2012 (4 years ago), Karjakin's average rating is 2770.
I did the same thing with Caruana, and his average rating is 2789 over the same time period. That's a difference of 19 elo points. Of course, if you throw Carlsen's numbers in, he'd be even higher.
I know that the Elo number isn't everything, and every player has good and bad moments. Also, everyone has their own style which can be harder for some players to beat than others. For example, Carlsen has never won a classical game against Giri.
With all that in mind, does Karjakin actually have a good chance to beat Carlsen this fall? And if he won, would he really be considered a "real" world champion? After all, there are other players who consistently rank higher than him. And Karjakin has never managed to crack the 2800 barrier.