can magnus carlson cross the 3000 elo barrier

-9.2

It is inconceivable that Carlsen can reach 3000. He hadn't had a single tournament performance that would indicate that it's achievable.

He has had 3000 performance ratings in tournaments. But those were somewhat special, even for him. He'd have to be that brilliant every tournament he plays for years to come, and any time he messes up he will lose a lot of hard-earned progress.

You can see the difficulty outlined here: http://www.2700chess.com/glass.php?statistic=2

Carlsen had 8 good games, where he scored 6.5/8. If he'd only played these 2 games his rating would now be 2895. Alas, he lost 2, and therefore his rating actually went down overall!

 It's a credit to Carlsen that he nearly always goes for the win, despite the effect a loss will have on his rating.

no, but he will break the 2900.

I think that there will always come strong players from below, and that he can loose for some underrated 2400 players on their way up. losses that costs a lot of ratingpoints.

I know a 17 year old talent that went from below 2000 to 2350 in a year, players in this category can gain strenght faster than they gain ratingpoints, and du serious ratingdamage to higher rated players, that not necessarily are stronger. I think Magnus is the strongest, but he too are taking a loss now and then.

Elubas wrote:

He has had 3000 performance ratings in tournaments. But those were somewhat special, even for him. He'd have to be that brilliant every tournament he plays for years to come, and any time he messes up he will lose a lot of hard-earned progress.

He wouldn't break 3000 with 3000 performances for the rest of his career.

He's had one 3000 performance rating.  One.  He would need sustained 3000 perfomance ratings for a long time to even come close.  2900?  Most likely.  2925?  Perhaps.  3000?  You're living in a fantasy world where you don't understand basic math.

less likely now

I think it's safe to say that Carlsen, being so young, has not shown his full potential - he always says that he is still learning, etcetera.

Problem is, that not being in "full potential" mode, he is already the best there is by a large margin.

Sometimes I wonder what's going on in the mind of Carlsen's haters, I mean - it's so hard to find something bad about him, it must cost you half your day, everyday, to bash him.

I'm sorry, Carlson*, not Carslen ;-)

buddy i like magnus carlsen a lot...hes a great player but in olympiad i think he lost bunch of elo points.....it was sad but sometimes playing with players much less ur strenght makes u feel nervous...may b thats y he lost lets hope he wins sinqfield cup

Certainly, he would.

Definetely Magnus can. He deserve it.

HMMM AGREEDSO

not by losing to the Saric's of the world.

Saric looks like he is heading for 2700, and maybe 2800 later. He is good. There are a bunch of players out there thats dangerous to the top ten. Some of them comes from China. I hope there will be more open tournaments, gathering both the top-players , and a lot more. If it happens I guess the top ten must give up some points, and its a big chance that goes for Magnus too.

I think the Olympiad was fantastic. A lot of good players got games against eachothers and the superstars.

But, the 2700+ Super-GMs usually lose rating points, which seems unjustified.

If 2700+ loose points, it is because strong players are coming up. That is how the system ideally shal work. If there are barriers, like invitational top-ten tournaments , these barriers will obstruct the natural flow of rating, and the population on each side of the barrier will get ratings less comparable to eachother.

The super-GM´s might be slightly overrated now, because they don`t play enough outside their superenvironment.

Magnus lost a few points in the Olympiad, and maybe his rating is more precise now.