can magnus carlson cross the 3000 elo barrier

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abdulmajidsayem1
varelse1 wrote:

i don't think so.

As flawless as Carlsen is, he draws way too much to cross 3000. IMO

When you're 2950, a draw against a "mere" 2820 will cost you major rating points.

That is not to say we've seen the last of broken records from Magnus. He has topped Kasparovs highest rating, at the tender age of 22. He is going to be on top for a long time.


hmmmm dats fr sure

varelse1
Nickalispicalis71 wrote:

The way he is being coddled and micro-managed, anything is possible.  He will slaughter the opposition in his next tournament.  Another invitational with "selected" opponents.

Coddled? Like the players he faces in London?

Nakamura (A human micro-chip), Aronian(world no.2), Anand (reigning world champion), and Kramnik (probably the least coddling player alive, he doesn't know what a bad tournament looks like.)
Quite frankly, I don't see how the competition could have been any more fierce.

Scottrf

I think that was the criticism varelse, that these super GM's don't play in open tournaments, but controlled pools. Could be wrong though.

cyberdynsystemsmodel

@scottrf dont u think wen a person kan beat 2700+ rated palyers will b able to beat lower than that ?

Scottrf

I do, but I'm not the one criticising him.

TheGreatOogieBoogie

Talent on a par with Morphy, Capablanca, Fischer, and Kasparov with rating inflation says that prospects look good. 

cyberdynsystemsmodel

@scotrof buddy i agree with u......

jesterville

At some point 2851 was also questioned as being "reachable" again. Now it is bested by 10. So 3000 is not impossible. He is about 40 points away from that now, and not too long ago he was also 40 points back of Garry's 2851. But the rating itself is not really the issue IMHO...but rather, can Magnus maintain this pace? Or is he distained to burn-out and settle with the pack? He has so many distractions around him, and to his own admission he is lazy. Fischer was also in the same position as Magnus...the cusp of "going where none other has gone before"...and we all know how he turned out...mad as a hat, some would say.

Scottrf

He's not 40 points off but 140, 3000 is scoring 75% against 2800s.

pfren
jesterville wrote:

At some point 2851 was also questioned as being "reachable" again. Now it is bested by 10. So 3000 is not impossible. He is about 40 points away from that now, and not too long ago he was also 40 points back of Garry's 2851.

You should really improve your math a wee bit. He still needs 139 points to reach 3000, which is next to impossible to achieve, unless a doubling cube is introduced to chess (like in backgammon).

jesterville

I stand corrected...just got up from sleeping.

WonderWats4DinR

As much as I would like to see super GMs playing in more open tournaments I have the feeling that they could be bored by the low competition. Since it is a swiss system they get to play players who are hundreds of points lower rated than them for the first several rounds and only later do they play GMs or strong IMs. They also probably make more money playing in those FIDE grand prixs or super tournaments than they could with opens.

Players like Magnus need really good competition in order to make them stronger, so having him play players like those in the top 10 is a healthy thing.

jesterville

What I should have said earlier, is that Magnus could be the first to reach the 2900 watershed....being 39 points away. How realistic is this? and how much higher can he go from there? Maybe 3000 is not possible, but surely he has shown that a human could reach the 2900 point.

Rnewms

A human can reach 3000 for sure. Magnus has many flaws, obviously not as many as I.

He is very young considering what he has accomplished so far. I plan to go through his games as they are played to see just how good his good areas are and how many areas are incomparable to other players.

Tjornan

Haha this reminds me of running, although you may think of them as two different things. At one point scientists declared it was impossible to run a 4 minute mile; they said your heart would explode. Obviously its been done. Or when the Greeks said everything in physics and nature had been discovered and the best thing to do was to explain what was already there. 

Human innovation isn't really bound by simple expectations. It is free and depends on the will of the player. If not carlsen, someone will come along and beat it eventually without a doubt in my mind. 

rrrttt
pfren wrote:
jesterville wrote:

At some point 2851 was also questioned as being "reachable" again. Now it is bested by 10. So 3000 is not impossible. He is about 40 points away from that now, and not too long ago he was also 40 points back of Garry's 2851.

You should really improve your math a wee bit. He still needs 139 points to reach 3000, which is next to impossible to achieve, unless a doubling cube is introduced to chess (like in backgammon).

he needs 149 points thus you need to improve on your math too...

fissionfowl

Oh dear.

BruceJuice

I think he needs a pool of players close to his rating for that to be possible.

Nickalispicalis71
Scottrf wrote:

I think that was the criticism varelse, that these super GM's don't play in open tournaments, but controlled pools. Could be wrong though.

Exactly right.  It is a club that enables its members to occupy a privledged position.  Playing amongst themselves and making sure outsiders stay out.  Its politics of course.  Players such as Peter Leko, who haven't won anything in years, continue to get endless invites, whilst other players such as Topalov and Shirov (who play far better dynamic chess) are now on the outside looking in.

Its a dirty game.  Two players from the 90's Valeri Salov and Andrei Sokolov, both better ( in my opinion) then Kasparov and Karpov, basically forced out of the game by the two k's who leaned on organizers not to invite them to the presitigious events.  No invites, no money, no livelihood.

jesterville

ok, enough of the math jester...it was all my fault.Embarassed

But seriously, 3000 is about what the weak computers play? Is there some guy out there who can really reach this high...even with inflation? And I don't even have an engine myself, but what strength are they playing at?