Carlsen and the quest for 2900

^You started good then spoiled everything in the last paragraph. It's completely meaningless to say they're overrated after one (!) bad period in their career. Especially Giri, Grischuk & Caruana. Punkt.

4/5 so far, and with 2 relatively easy opponents (relatively meaning there's no chance I'll ever beat them, but Carlsen should do well against them) to go, he should defintely surpass that 5.71 mark, and hopefully make 6 or 6.5. 

Carlsen has done much better than expected in these first rounds, 3000+ performance and +3 with only 2 white games. In the remaining games I think black vs Giri and So are games where he should be able to get a draw. White against Kramnik is probably also drawn in the end, but then the white against Mamedov in the last round is a game where Carlsen could take it to +4, especially if he would need a win to secure first place.

I actually think Topalov is the most overrated, and is not playing much to ensure his average rating remains as high as possible, as per this list:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11U_0gAderuRhKuD2hr7GO_Ks9D3tX_v87ftKk2XN4zQ/pubhtml#

I have a theory about 2800. Once a player gets there every game that is not a win loses Elo (except v Carlsen), so there is a subtle pressure to win more, which ends up cascading into a downward spiral. Thoughts? 

Yeah, Topalov looks like Radjabov, although a little bit more consistent. 

I agree with your last paragraph.

I think the three strongest players in the world are Carlsen, Caruana and Aronian. The latter reached 2835+ last year but has not being doing well at all since then, even if I still think he is stronger than most of the currently higher rated players and is on the way back to a world ranking where he "belongs".

he won the tournament

An excellent tournament by Carlsen (TPR 2981) and Anand (TPR 2892).

Both gained 13 Elo points, and are now #1 and #2 respectively.

With Carlsen set to play three more 9-round events in 2015 (Norway, St. Louis, London) as part of the Grand Chess Tour, his chances of surpassing 2900 are as follows:

Assuming an average opponent strength of 2775 (+/-10) for these three events he will need to score 20/27 (+13) to attain 2900. This is by no means an easy feat, but with his record against Nakamura (also playing all three), and without the pressure of a World Championship match to prepare for his chances look very good indeed.

+5 in a short event at this level with only four whites is an incredible result. Not only 100% with white (including a win against Kramnik) but also a win with black against Caruana. Anand's +3 is amazing enough, but Carlsen just never seems to have a bad tournament.

Carlsen might well attain 2900, but I doubt he can stay above 2900. It will most likely be a momentary thing. Because even any draw against someone far lower, say like Naiditsch, almost 200 points down, will knock his rating back quite severely. And that rules him out of any Opens or Olympiads as well (refer to last years Olympiad).

I highly doubt Carlsen will hit 2900 anytime soon. Maybe in 5 years if more players get over 2800.

Two Nauru flags and both with extreme statistical "knowledge". Awesome. 

He had a bad tournament in the Sinquefield cup last year. He finished second nonetheless...

Secnd?! That's an epicfail, for Carlsen!!!!

Can Wei Yi beat Carlsen to 2900? Based on the following analysis, it's possible, and perhaps sooner than anyone thinks.

The following is a comparison of Wei Yi and Carlsen's Elo ratings, starting at 13. Given that Wei Yi is currently 25 points ahead of Carlsen at a comparable age, one can only imagine the future in store for this very young man.

Carlsen had a big head start, and was almost 100 Elo above Wei Yi at 13. However, Wei Yi's rating exploded between 13 and 15, rising a staggering 235 points in that 2 year span. It shows no sign of slowing either, as he's picked up a further 87 points since then, and is already knocking on the door of the Elite. 

Carlsen's rating appeared to stall around the 2700 mark for a year, before jumping rapidly to around 2775, and lingering for another year. He broked through to 2800 at 19, and then of course continued his climb to 2882, and World Champion.

Based on the below table it would appear Wei Yi is on track to smash Carlsen's records. The question is, will his rating hit the skids when he starts playing in Elite field events? I assume this is possibly why Carlsen's rating stalled at various intervals, as he got used to his new opponents, before working out ways to overcome them.

Interesting stats

Very interesting, indeed!

It's early to say anything about Wei Yi before he has played any top events except that he is extremely talented. But so was for example Bu Xiangzhi, without every becoming close to a top ten player.

Yes, Bu Xiangzhi was over 2730 recently, but I recall he ran into some issues in events outside China.

It certainly brings up the possibility of closed rating pools among various groups of players, e.g. from China, and even from the Elite group. I know there are FIDE regulations about title norms (IM, GM) having to be earned against players from other associations, but does this apply once you are a Super GM?

Anyway, we shall soon see how good Wei Yi is when he starts getting invites to the Elite events. I expect he should start receiving these next year...