Carlsen and the quest for 2900

Carlsen will be offically rated 2877 after Norway, a drop of 4 points. His draw against Svidler cost him these 4 points and ultimately cost him a shot at a tie-breaker with Karjakin.

Yes, I know. But I was trying to search for a reason why the USCF would like to see this player in the championship.

I was watching live and that Rook takes pawn move Carlsen played was completely confusing. The engine evaluation went from -3.0 to even. He tried to get too fancy. It's amazing that out of all 9 games, 1 move was literally the difference between maintaining his rating and possibly winning the tournament, and losing rating points and finishing second.

Hopefully this lights a fire in his belly, realizing how strong the other top GMs are after this tournament, and hopefully that pushes him to study even harder. We're all rooting for him to do amazing things.

Rating inflation doesn't exist. Already proven by IM Ken Regan. kthxbai

If you are referring to his various PDFs, your definition of a scientific proof is lacking ;)...he has mentioned tossing out inflation as a factor because he posits that players leaving the ratings pools after a full career would actually tend to deflate the system, yet does not take into account that more low rated players (scholastic programs, etc.) leave the pool with less points than they entered with than high rated "career" players retiring their accumulated points.  

There's been no proof published, and he has only tackled the issue as a sideline in other pursuits/proofs, from everything I have read so far.

This is why I kinda hate chess.

There is another issue : the number of rated player has hugely increased other the last two decades, thus feeding points into the system.  

I think Magnus Carlsens new blitz rating will be 2877 also. So both his classical & blitz will be 2877. Amazing coincidence.

When it comes to Blitz chess, Magnus Carlsen has already attained a rating of 2900+, with a current live Blitz world record of 2914.4!

Yesterday he increased his rating 77.4, which if he repeats again today will bring him to the brink of 3000!

http://top40chess.com

http://www.2700chess.com

Looks like playing in the Olympiad, where his average opponents thus far have been 2674 is really hurting Carlsen's rating.

1

Carlsen

2869.7

−7.3

 Very odd opening choice yesterday, and sloppy work in his other loss. He's clearly not in top form, and perhaps unmotivated. That being said, he's still playing at 2800 level!

Will Caruana beat Carlsen to 2900? At the rate he is progressing it's possible. Caruana gained 43 rating points in one month! If he plays half as well it's possible he will reach that level within a year. Carlsen must be feeling the heat!

Until proven otherwise, I'm going to consider Caruana's St. Louis performance to be an outlier on par with Karpov's 1994 Linares. Not that neither one was incapable of said feat - they are/were both fabulous players - but sometimes you catch lightning in a bottle, and rarely does it occur twice. Just ask the 2007 Colorado Rockies.

Caruana will have a 2845 rating to defend in two Grand Prix events played right after each other in October, my guess is that he will lose quite a few rating points the upcoming month.

Carlsen 2900 , you must be kidding, this guy is finished.    At this moment , Carlsen is only marketing,  he still a decent player, but no so good like Caruana, Vishy Anand (remember my words for the world championship) or any chess programm. 

Of course I don't expect Caruana (or anyone else for that matter) to score like that anytime soon but there's an important difference between these two results. Karpov's performance was towards the end of his career. You could even say that it was perhaps his last truly great result. Caruana, on the other hand, has just begun. He has been getting consistently better and better and his results have been very good for a while now.

While no one expected the kind or result in St. Louis it's hardly a suprise that he won. He also continued strong play in recent European club championship. Plus he has been difficult opponent for Carlsen in the past which you can't say about many other players. Caruana has more agressive style than Carlsen, which may prove useful in personal encounters, but he is also very universal. It's early days but I don't think his current rating is a fluke.

People still don't get it.  Think of the FIDE ratings pool like the Universe, an expanding balloon.  Inside the balloon, anyone can increase rating as fast as they want to.  On the edges where the balloon is, rating can only be increased by pushing the balloon outward, and the farther it is pushed, the more it snaps back.  This effect is most pronounced on the top rated player.  

Getting from 2843 to 2900 is still an order of magnitude harder than getting from 2801 to 2843...and looking at the result needed to make the latter jump, let's just say it's unlikely in the extreme that Caruana makes 2900 by 2015.  

Caruana basically ate Nakamura's, Aronian's, and MVL's ratings almost point for point.  The further below him they go, the less he can increase further.  That only leaves Carlsen's rating to springboard off of.  How many more times will Caruana play Carlsen this year?  Maybe a handful at most?  That's maybe 20 rating points if Caruana wins or draws every game.

Once Caruana is past Carlsen, things slow down even more.  When you are playing King of the Hill, the height you can reach is dictated by the hill itself ;)...

Unless Caruana and Carlsen play a rated match in 2014-2015 and Caruana destroys Carlsen, you will not see 2900 from Caruana.

Well said. i am not saying Caruana cannot reach 2900. I would only say I haven't seen the evidence that he will.......yet.

But his career is still young, isn't it?

Somebody is butthurt.

I think Magnus Carlsen's best years are in front of him. 

However, I agree with the other posters that for both Carlsen and Caruana, how do they get the competition to play in order to reach 2900, as things stand right now?

I guess that it could alwasy be that we receive a surprise rising star, who has a surprise run of excellence and success, that surprises the world.  

It's one of those things that is fun about chess.  Ya' never know.  

'69 Mets.  

With the World Championship over, and Carlsen now the champion for the next two years, it's a chance to review where he stands in this so-called quest. His rating now stands at 2862, more than 27 points below his live high rating record, but with the chance to now relax and play without any pressure it's like we will see his rating rise again. 

His next outing appears to be Tata Steel, up against  Caruana, Aronian, Giri, So, Vachier-Lagrave, Ding Liren, Ivanchuk, Radjabov, Jobava, Saric, Hou.

This should be a good tournament for him to relax, and possibly have some good wins. His opponents will have an average rating of around 2730, so he will want to avoid too many draws. 7.5/11 will be his required performance to maintain his rating. 

It's highly likely Carlsen only plays for the tournament title. He doens't really have anything left to prove now, though a 2900 rating would almost certainly solidify his place at, or near the very top of the pantheon.