I would say Carlsen is slightly in the lead. Anand is right behind. Mostly because of his consistency, and by crushing Shirov in that match. Aronian next because of his consistency.
Maybe Nakamura, Gelfand and Kamsky are tied. {Boy I've watched a lot of chess this year!
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Svidler recently won both Russian Superfinal and World Cup, but he will have to compete successfully against the 2800 players to be a serious Chess Oscar candidate. The Grand Slam final starting next week has all the 2800+ players and if Carlsen wins that one he will probably have secured his third Chess Oscar in a row. Then he would have won three tournaments in 2011, one of them the maybe strongest classical tournament ever rating wise (average Elo 2780+). If Anand wins he may be the favourite instead after also winning the Botvinnik Memorial rapid. If Nakamura wins he too would become a serious candidate after winning also Wijk, but I think it will be between Anand and Carlsen.
Susan Polgar's blog has a poll on who has had the best year in 2011 and at the time of writing Svidler is in a clear lead ahead of Anand. They are the only players to have reached 50 votes, Svidler has 126 and Anand 65:
http://susanpolgar.blogspot.com/2011/09/who-has-best-year-so-far-in-2011.html
So far the main candidates are Gelfand (who won the Candidates) & Svidler - World Cup and Russian Superfinal. Grischuk, who finished 2nd in both the Candidates & World Cup, also deserves attention.
But my vote counts 400! Anand is the clear winner with 467 points. Congratulations!!
Latest result from Polgar's best player of 2011 poll, current top five:
Svidler 180
Anand 93
Carlsen 62
Gelfand 38
Morozevich 20
Svidler and Gelfand will face the top players in Tal Memorial and get the chance to show if they can compete with 2800s in the same way Ivanchuk has been doing lately. Anand and Carlsen have Tal Memorial and London to make their year more impressive. It does look unusually unpredictable in 2011 though, almost anyone could be the best player of the year with a strong finish. Ivanchuk will become a candidate if he can finish the Grand Slam final the same way he started it.
That's a third tournament win in a row for Carlsen, and in all his classical tournaments this year he has performed quite a bit over 2800, in both the latest even higher than Kasparov's 2851 so he's increasing his lead on the rating list. Even if he wouldn't keep winning also Tal Memorial and London he may already have done enough to be considered as the best chess player of 2011.
After Tal Memorial I guess this one is decided. Carlsen has won the two strongest tournaments of the year, ahead of the other 2800 players, after winning his two previous tournaments as well. He's still #1 and may win also London before the year is over. Kasparov, Karpov and Anand will be the only players with more Chess Oscars if Carlsen gets the one for 2011, and there's still a few days left until he turns 21.
Yeah, it would have to be Carlsen. He's number one.
Yeah, it would have to be Carlsen. He's number one.
Yes, this time I think there will be less discussion than the previous years Carlsen got it. The poll on Polgar's site was started with just over three months left of the year and few votes were added from October to December. In any case, Svidler won that poll with a landslide, with Anand in just as clear second place, followed by Carlsen and Gelfand.
Carlsen's Elo performance in his events was 2815-2853-2833-2842-2849-2875. He won the two strongest tournaments of the year and two other tournaments apart from that, and now has more than 25 points down to #2 on the rating list.
Svidler won the World Cup knockout but didn't face any players stronger than Grischuk and Pono there, and the Russian Superfinal 0.5 ahead of Moro. Against the 2800 players he did worse, 6-7th in the Tal Memorial won by Carlsen. In the European Championship he finished behind medal winners Potkin-Wojtaszek-Polgar. In team events he did so-so, with quick losses against Ganguly and Guseinov in the World Team Championship, and in the European Team Championship he had a minus score after losses against Topalov and Radjabov. In all he had a good year even if I don't think it is comparable to Carlsen's.
Anand has gone four years without winning a tournament, and he didn't score impressive results for a World Champion in 2011. He finished 3-5th of 6 in the Grand Slam final won by Carlsen and shared 6-7th with Svidler in the Tal Memorial with the same winner. In London Anand was 5-6th but in Wijk he was 2nd after playing well. On the whole hardly enough to be a serious Candidates for a Chess Oscar.
Gelfand won the Kazan knockout after beating Mamedyarov, Kamsky and Grischuk, but did worse against stronger opponents in the Tal Memorial, where he shared 8-9th with Kramnik after losing to Karjakin and Carlsen. Apart from that he only played a couple of team events with even score. As Svidler he is around #15 on the rating list, and I don't think Kazan will be enough to get him the Chess Oscar.
Carlsen won the Chess Oscar 2009 and 2010, but who will win it 2011? Kramnik had a great Dortmund but didn't impress in Wijk, Kazan, Amber and the Russian Superfinal. Carlsen won Bazna and Biel but had a worse Wijk, even if that too was a 2800+ performance. Anand did well in Wijk and Amber but without first places he won't win the Chess Oscar.
Nakamura won Wijk but has done badly since then. Gelfand won Kazan but without facing the top players, and the whole event was quite underwhelming. He had a bottom half Amber and all draws in the Russian team championship, and will probably need to win another event this year to be a serious contender.
The Oscar winner has usually been #1 on the rating list and if Carlsen stays first he might well win a third Chess Oscar in a row, especially if all his competitors have at most one good result during the year. At the moment only Kasparov, Karpov and Anand have more than three Oscars, while Fischer has exactly three. With a third of the year left my vote would go to Carlsen but much can still happen the last months of 2011.