Chess will never be solved, here's why

Sort:
playerafar
MARattigan wrote:

Main point is SF's numbers prove nothing.

I used chess.com SF just for example.
The project engines would be better ...
If you're saying 'weakly solving' requires 'proof' ...  well that's relevant.
But 'weakly solving' could have multiple definitions ...

MARattigan

If you look back at the posts it does, but a proof is always required.

But you just pointed out a flaw in the definition I posted earlier. It should read:

A (timely) weak solution means that for the initial position either a proven (timely) strategy has been determined for one player that achieves a win for that player against any opposition, or a proven (timely) strategy has been determined for each player that avoids a loss for that player against any opposition. 

Edit: Modified the wording to make it explicit that the result of a strategy refers to the result for the player to whom the strategy applies.

playerafar
MARattigan wrote:

If you look back at the posts it does, but a proof is always required.

But you just pointed out a flaw in the definition I posted earlier. It should read:

A (timely) weak solution means that for the initial position either a proven (timely) strategy has been determined for one player that achieves a win against any opposition, or a proven (timely) strategy has been determined for both players that avoids a loss against any opposition. 

That's a nice definition.  I appreciate that.
Care to qualify how it would differ from 'strongly solving'?
Yes I realize that's probably been done multiple times in the forum -
but this would be a good place.
And our posts crossed - so I'll bump my other post to a bit later.

playerafar

The overall discussion doesn't have to be 'airtight solving' -
it seems to be well established that's gazillions of millenia away ...
unless there's big improvements to the software and hardware.

But then there's other related things.
'Weak solving' has been looked at for 2000 posts or so.
What about -
Will all possible legal chess positions ever be Categorized ?
Some could reply:
"Already done" - every position is either 'solved' or it isn't.
But that's always been true.
Maybe the percentage of 'truly solved' positions so far - is known.
So maybe there'll be estimates of how long to improve that percentage by how much.
In other words - a graph.  

MARattigan
playerafar wrote:

The overall discussion doesn't have to be 'airtight solving' -
it seems to be well established that's gazillions of millenia away ...
unless there's big improvements to the software and hardware.
...

Well established, yes, but not to all.

The overall discussion is clouded by people contributing without realising what solving means.  If it's not airtight it's not a solution.

@tygxc is planning to spend the next quintillion years getting several supercomputers to not solve chess.

playerafar
MARattigan wrote:
playerafar wrote:

The overall discussion doesn't have to be 'airtight solving' -
it seems to be well established that's gazillions of millenia away ...
unless there's big improvements to the software and hardware.
...

Well established, yes, but not to all.

The overall discussion is clouded by people contributing without realising what solving means.  If it's not airtight it's not a solution.

@tygxc is planning to spend the next quintillion years getting several supercomputers to not solve chess.

Lol !   Hahahahhahahaha
Regarding your great position with white drawing by running his lone King to a1 ... even though SF keeps stubbornly assigning it as lost for white even after advancing the moves ...
Well if you don't mind the pun ...
that position you've posted ... is a1 !!! happy.png

playerafar

There's people in various clubs who might like seeing that one.
And - I wonder if the staff know about it.

MARattigan
playerafar wrote:
MARattigan wrote:

If you look back at the posts it does, but a proof is always required.

But you just pointed out a flaw in the definition I posted earlier. It should read:

A (timely) weak solution means that for the initial position either a proven (timely) strategy has been determined for one player that achieves a win against any opposition, or a proven (timely) strategy has been determined for both players that avoids a loss against any opposition. 

That's a nice definition.  I appreciate that.
Care to qualify how it would differ from 'strongly solving'?
Yes I realize that's probably been done multiple times in the forum -
but this would be a good place.
And our posts crossed - so I'll bump my other post to a bit later.

A (timely) strong solution means that for all legal positions either a proven (timely) strategy has been determined for one player that achieves a win for that player against any opposition, or a proven (timely) strategy has been determined for each player that avoids a loss for that player against any opposition. 

Edit: Modified the wording to make it explicit that the result of a strategy refers to the result for the player to whom the strategy applies.

playerafar

So you're contrasting weak and strong by whether its for the opening position or all positions?   That's the difference I saw.

MARattigan

Yes that's the difference.

DreamscapeHorizons

Chess will never be solved because all u have to do is tinker with the rules ever now and then.

playerafar
MARattigan wrote:

Yes that's the difference.

There could be other ways to assign the difference.
If I've got it right - you're suggesting the definitions you've now posted might arguably be the most practical?

Regarding 'solution' - several times possible connections of the forum topic to non-computer chess and chessplaying seem to have been posted - whether intentionally or not.  
Mathematically - something is either solved or its not. 
Prevalent I'd say.
But does the approach always have to be entirely mathematical ?

@tygxc 's 'solution' appears to be some kind of 'computer heuristics'. 
But I'm thinking that approach doesn't have to be that 'heuristical'.
A better 'pruning' method would instead of just numbly and arbitrarily choosing four candidate moves each ply ...   
instead go by evaluation numbers.  
In both cases - the method depends on the computers' evaluations ...
but why cripple it further with '4'  so crassly arbitrary ?
Much better:  (for whatever purpose - the project or the discussions) - devise an approach using the evaluation numbers instead.  

If in any position a 'timely strategy' is available that leaves the player not on move with a best move with disadvantage of 6 points or a 'timely strategy' is available to the player on move that avoids a loss against any opposition - then that position is arguably 'Categorized' as winning or drawing. 

Does '6 points' imply an advantage equivalent to more than a rook of material advantage ?  I think so.  Am I sure?
Its not always like that.
If somebody's one pawn up that's going to promote -
then the computer might even be able to see ahead to mate.
Mate in 50 ?  I haven't seen it or even mate in 20 in the tactics puzzles -
But I've seen advantages of plus 50 many times ...
Plus 50 versus plus 30 ....    ??    happy.png


tygxc

#2730

"1) as for chess, an optimal strategy and a game-theoretic value for checkers was not known"
++ The game-theoretic value of Checkers was known to be a draw long before that was proven and likewise the game-theoretic value of Chess is known to be a draw before it will be proven. The Riemann hypothesis is known to be true but not yet proven: several people try to prove it, none try to disprove it.

"2) more important to me is that "the vast majority [of openings] can be eliminated due to transpositions and alpha-beta cutoffs." ++ That is what I say about chess all the time.

"they just did not check because the evaluation function at some depth said those positions are almost certanly a loss or a win (like e.g. a -6 or +6 in chess, using the pawn value as a measure of the advantage)"
++ In chess a stable -1 or +1 is enough to win.
"The winning of a pawn among good players of even strength often means the winning of the game." - Capablanca,
"An endgame with an extra pawn is won, the plan is to queen the pawn.
An endgame with an extra knight is won, the plan is to trade the knight for a pawn" - Capablanca
"A pawn is a pawn" - Fischer
1 e4 e5 2 Ba6 is a sure loss for white, without having worked out all possibilities to checkmate.

"That is chess  while other openings almost certainly would lead to a draw, then indeed some approximations would have been made."
++ If 1 e4 and 1 d4 are draws, then 1 a4 is surely no better than a draw either.

"the alpha-beta search (nominal depths 17-23 plies) used in Chinook was not designed to solve checkers, and it occasionally determined a proven win or loss"
++ Stockfish is not designed to solve Chess, but it can be used to weakly solve chess.

"We only needed the bound to prove the root value. At the time of this writing, ongoing computations are working on turning these bounds into proven results (Loss or Draw)"
++ To weakly solve chess we do not need to look at all openings, only those judged relevant.

"machines will be used to solve additional openings"
++ So after chess is weakly solved people can solve 1 a4 as well if they like.

DiogenesDue
tygxc wrote:

#2730

"1) as for chess, an optimal strategy and a game-theoretic value for checkers was not known" ++ The game-theoretic value of Checkers was known to be a draw long before that was proven and likewise the game-theoretic value of Chess is known to be a draw before it will be proven. Likewise the Riemann hypothesis is known to be true although not yet proven: several people work on proving it, none on disproving it.

"2) more important to me is that "the vast majority [of openings] can be eliminated due to transpositions and alpha-beta cutoffs." ++ That is what I say about chess all the time.

"they just did not check because the evaluation function at some depth said those positions are almost certanly a loss or a win (like e.g. a -6 or +6 in chess, using the pawn value as a measure of the advantage)"
++ In chess a stable -1 or +1 is enough to win.
"The winning of a pawn among good players of even strength often means the winning of the game." - Capablanca,
"An endgame with an extra pawn is won, the plan is to queen the pawn.
An endgame with an extra knight is won, the plan is to trade the knight for a pawn" - Capablanca
"A pawn is a pawn" - Fischer
1 e4 e5 2 Ba6 is a sure loss for white, without having worked out all possibilities to checkmate.

"That is chess  while other openings almost certainly would lead to a draw, then indeed some approximations would have been made."
++ If 1 e4 and 1 d4 are draws, then 1 a4 is surely no better than a draw either.

"the alpha-beta search (nominal depths 17-23 plies) used in Chinook was not designed to solve checkers, and it occasionally determined a proven win or loss"
++ Stockfish is not designed to solve Chess, but it can be used to weakly solve chess.

"We only needed the bound to prove the root value. At the time of this writing, ongoing computations are working on turning these bounds into proven results (Loss or Draw)"
++ To weakly solve chess we do not need to look at all openings, only those judged relevant.

"machines will be used to solve additional openings"
++ So after chess is weakly solved people can solve 1 a4 as well if they like.

That's not the definition of weakly solved, nor can you assume that a +1 or -1 valuation by an engine represents an actual pawn advantage/disadvantage and then toss out quotes from human chess players that had no more hope of solving chess than you have.

Back to square one, which you have never left except in your imagination.  Did you see that Tromp confirmed 10^44 today?  That guy has some solid numbers, and he makes no illogical leaps.

llama51

More often than not, in technical endgames, a single extra pawn isn't enough to win. If you can't leverage the material advantage earlier in the game to build on it, then the game often peters out to a draw.

tygxc

#2756

"That's not the definition of weakly solved"
++ weakly solved means that for the initial position a strategy has been determined to achieve the game-theoretic value against any opposition. - van den Herik
That is the accepted definition of weakly solved, despite some people trying to enforce their personal, erroneous definition here.
'Any opposition' means that white must oppose i.e. resist against the draw.

"nor can you assume that a +1 or -1 valuation by an engine represents an actual pawn advantage/disadvantage"
++ That is what +1 or -1 means: one side is or will be a pawn ahead without compensation

"then toss out quotes from human chess players"
++ "Next to brute-force methods it is often beneficial to incorporate knowledge-based
methods in game-solving programs" - van den Herik.
Solving a game allows to incorporate knowledge of the game and doing so is beneficial.

"Did you see that Tromp confirmed 10^44 today?"
++ I do not doubt that Tromp arrived at 10^44 legal positions. I only say that none of his 538 sampled positions found legal can result from the initial position by a reasonable game with > 50% accuracy and thus that the number of sensible positions is much smaller, e.g. 10^32.

"That guy has some solid numbers, and he makes no illogical leaps."
Tromp concludes from a sample of 538 positions found legal that there are 10^44 legal positions. That is all right, but I receive criticism here for less drastic extrapolations.

tygxc

#2757
"More often than not, in technical endgames, a single extra pawn isn't enough to win.
If you can't leverage the material advantage earlier in the game to build on it,
then the game often peters out to a draw."
++ Safe heavens are known drawn endgames despite 1 or even 2 extra pawns.
Opposite-colored bishop endings are an example.
Rook endings with pawns on one wing are another example.
However, if one side loses a pawn early,
then the other side can usually win the game by steering around the safe heavens.
That is why gambits are no longer viable in GM or ICCF chess.
One side accepts the pawn, defends, and coasts towards a won endgame.
"It loses by force" - Fischer on the King's Gambit
"I would like to play King's Gambit, but I could not find a way for white to equalise" - Kramnik
If 1 e4 e5 2 f4 is a loss for white, despite the obvious but insufficient compensation,
then 1 e4 b5 or 1 e4 f5 or 1 d4 g5 are sure losses for black. 1 e4 e5 2 Ba6 is a sure loss for white.

Elroch

I have posted elsewhere a legally reachable position with a +27 advantage for white according to Stockfish that cannot even be won with co-operation. The aim of the game of chess is not to achieve a 6 point advantage according to Stockfish.

haiaku
tygxc wrote:

"1) as for chess, an optimal strategy and a game-theoretic value for checkers was not known"
++ The game-theoretic value of Checkers was known to be a draw long before that was proven and likewise the game-theoretic value of Chess is known to be a draw before it will be proven.

In papers it's hard to find statements like "we know that... (thing to prove)" before it is indeed proven; we can find "we know that likely/probably... (thing to prove)", i.e. more or less educated guesses. You use "know" instead of "suppose/hypothesize/postulate", etc. in an attempt to give artificially more strength to your assumptions and deceive people. The rest of your post (link) is a deliberate distorsion of facts.

tygxc wrote:

That is what +1 or -1 means: one side is or will be a pawn ahead without compensation.

Check better.

Elroch

Here's a legal position with 9.19 pawn advantage for black according to 99-ply Stockfish 14.1 analysis. White's drawing strategy is not difficult.