Chess will never be solved, here's why

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Yoyostrng

That's a lot of words. 

tygxc

@5027
... and none about solving chess...

MARattigan
tygxc wrote:

@5027
... and none about solving chess...

Speak for yourself.

Elroch
Optimissed wrote:
tygxc wrote:

@5027
... and none about solving chess...

Incorrect, sir. Elroch was misleading us regarding solving chess.

Actually, all your recently arrogant blowhardery and self-praise (as usual, the only one doing that) is a response to a gentle little joke I made to @MARattigan, about the remarkable co-incidence that of all the locations in the set of locations from which a person may come, we both come from the complement of the set of locations known as "Wigan").

tygxc

@5031

Back on topic: Will chess be solved? What does solved mean? [1]

The game-theoretic value is the outcome when all participants play optimally.

Ultra-weakly solved means that the game-theoretic value of the initial position has been determined. There is massive evidence that for Chess it is a draw.

Weakly solved means that for the initial position a strategy has been determined
to achieve the game-theoretic value against any opposition.

Strongly solved is being used for a game for which such a strategy has been determined
for all legal positions. For Chess: a 32-men table base with 10^44 legal positions [2], too much.

Will Chess be weakly solved? This means that for the initial position a strategy has been determined to achieve the draw for black against all opposition by white.
A strategy can be a set of moves, a set of rules, or a combination. [1]

All participants play optimally, this means that white must oppose to the draw.
1 Nh3 opposes less than 1 Nf3. 1 a4 opposes less than 1 e4 or 1 d4. [3], [4]
1 e4 e5 2 Nf3 Nc6 3 Ng1 does not oppose: 3...Nb8 draws by repetition.
1 e4 e5 2 Ba6?, 1 e4 e5 2 Nf3 Nc6 3 Nd4?, 3 Nxe5?, 3 Ng5?, 3 Nh4? are no optimal play.
Good assistants, i.e. (ICCF) (grand)masters contribute such knowledge and more.

The use of such knowledge is beneficial and allowed in weakly solving a game. [1]
That leaves 10^17 (100 million billion) relevant positions.

The latest cloud engines calculate a billion positions per second. [5]
A year contains 365.25 * 24 * 3600 = 31557600 seconds.
Thus 3 cloud engines (or 3000 desktops) can weakly solve Chess in 5 years.

GM Sveshnikov was right:
"Give me five years, good assistants and the latest computers
- I will bring all openings to technical endgames and "close" chess."

Give me means money: 3 million $ for 3 (ICCF) (grand)masters and 3 cloud engines for 5 years.

[1] https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0004370201001527
[2] https://github.com/tromp/ChessPositionRanking 
[3] https://arxiv.org/pdf/2111.09259.pdf 
[4] https://www.sources.com/SSR/Docs/Capablanca-ChessFundamentals.pdf 
[5] https://chessify.me/blog/nps-what-are-the-nodes-per-second-in-chess-engine-analysis 

Elroch
Optimissed wrote:
Elroch wrote:
Optimissed wrote:
tygxc wrote:

@5027
... and none about solving chess...

Incorrect, sir. Elroch was misleading us regarding solving chess.

Actually, all your recently arrogant blowhardery and self-praise (as usual, the only one doing that) is a response to a gentle little joke I made to @MARattigan, about the remarkable co-incidence that of all the locations in the set of locations from which a person may come, we both come from the complement of the set of locations known as "Wigan").

But you continued your "gentle joke", which was fine

That's where you should have stopped

 

 

__________________________________________________________________________________________

, to "correct" me once again

You mean as well as your ego-motivated diversion into irrelevant military terminology nothing to do with my joke to MARattigan?

Observe your own (unprovoked) example of what you claim to be condemning!

, using it as yet another instance of why you're so superior.

Your conclusion. Not something you will find in my words.

Note carefully that, as so often exactly one of us has trumpeted claims of his own superiority. That's you.

Your longstanding practice is to generate bad feeling by personal attacks rather than detached attempts to deal with facts. Even when you disagree with someone's statements rather than abusing them, you usually do so in an unconstructive way.

wyatteldred

i eat chess pieces

Elroch

@MARattigan, I have to correct one claim I made about the relevance of repeated positions. I haven't found the post I made, but I believe I misstated the relevant point.

If we imagine the forward part of a candidate drawing strategy (a la solution of checkers) iterating through passes that are the number of half moves since the starting position, generating all the positions it needs to deal with (until branches reach the tablebase), then if the opponent of the strategy has the opportunity to play a move, that move can be ignored only if the position it reaches lies in the set of earlier positions that have led to that position, rather than in the entire set of positions that has been reached at an earlier half move.

Another way to think of it is that any opposing move that creates a loop in the forward analysis graph can be ignored (there is not necessarily a loop if the position has merely been reached at a smaller number of half moves by a different route).

I hope by some miracle that is clear (or becomes so after some pondering) to someone else (despite its less than crystal clear expression)!

MARattigan
MARattigan  wrote:
tygxc wrote:

...

++ You cannot transpose the 2 mirror images @4953 into each other by moving the pieces. Only 1 of the 4 mirror images can be relevant.

...

You're speaking for yourself. I find it quite easy.

______________________________________________________________________________________

tygxc wrote:

++ I am speaking of middlegame positions of around 26 men, where most positions are.

I find those quite easy too.

You haven't quite got the hang of this chess stuff have you? How long have you been playing?

 

 

mpaetz
Optimissed wrote:


All of this rot originates from and is made by you, especially to promote you at the expense of others. You do it all the time, to anyone who threatens your self-image. You are fundamentally devious and self-aggrandising. The personal attacks always originate from you and over the years, I have seen you do it to many others. When you had your own threads you then blocked them, when they resisted. You should know very well that what I write is accurate, because most others do.

     How many posts lambasting others for superior attitudes and boasting of intellectual prowess do you suppose it will take to eliminate such behavior here? Endless recriminations and responses to slights, real or imagined, don't seem to have had much effect so far. The "he started it" mentality of children's squabbles is particularly inelegant.

Elroch

Got to say @wyatteldred's post was an improvement on some recently.

DiogenesDue
Optimissed wrote:

I don't know. You could try reporting Elroch for making personal attacks, I suppose. Not that it would do much good. He's protected.

So in your world, making an aspersion about Wigan is somehow dire and much worse than just calling people idiots outright as you do on a regular basis?

Elroch is protected by secret forces.  I am protected by those same forces according to your previous diatribes.  You, meanwhile, are a crusader for justice, and never attack anyone, being in fact a paragon of virtue and enlightenment for everyone around you to admire.  It's all very complicated and dramatic, but Occam's Razor makes short work of the whole narrative.

DiogenesDue
Optimissed wrote:

So in your world, making an aspersion about Wigan is somehow dire and much worse than just calling people idiots outright as you do on a regular basis?>>

Ther point is that Elroch made a snidey but harmless comment about the town I live in, and I pointed out that he had made a mistake in his word useage. He then tried to make out, by means of some sort of vitriolic argument, that my remark was a personal attack whereas his was harmless. That type of dishonesty is the behaviour of trolls, just as yours and mpaetz's is. Three trolls on this thread together and you always protect your own. Make no mistake. You're trolls and you're protecting your own.

Ahhh, so then by extension Mpaetz is also protected by the powers that be?

Mike_Kalish

In the last 8 posts....not a word about chess.  This makes 9, I guess. 

Mike_Kalish

11......and counting.

Mike_Kalish

But let's get back to chess......I'm just wondering if it's a sport.....and if there's luck involved. 

Elroch
Optimissed wrote:

So in your world, making an aspersion about Wigan is somehow dire and much worse than just calling people idiots outright as you do on a regular basis?>>

Ther point is that Elroch made a snidey

no, not at all. I can be 100% sure about that

but harmless comment about the town I live in, and I incorrectly pointed out that he had made a mistake in his word useage.

DiogenesDue
Optimissed wrote:

The mods have concentrated on the repeat accounts and the ones who are just playing but they leave the nasty types alone. 

You should be particularly happy about this...it's the only reason you are still around.

tygxc

@5041
"I find those quite easy too."
++ Very cunning.
However, for every such position with left / right symmetry, where the Tromp count is only a factor 2 off and the Gourion count is spot on,
there is a pawnless position with 8-fold symmetry, where the Tromp count is a factor 8 off and the Gourion count is a factor 4 off.
So generally the Tromp count is a factor 4 too high and the Gourion count is a factor 2 too high for the purpose as a starting point for estimating the number of positions involved in weakly solving chess.

The mantisse does not really matter, try to get the exponent right first.
None of the 56011 sampled positions Tromp found legal can result from optimal play.
Look at the 3 random samples https://github.com/tromp/ChessPositionRanking

In all 3 there are underpromotions to rook or bishop from both sides. Underpromotion to rook or bishop only make sense to avoid stalemate, i.e. to avoid a draw. It makes no sense for both sides to avoid a draw. So at least one side must have erred by underpromoting instead of queening.

Even none of a sample of 1000 positions in the Gourion count 10^37 can result from optimal play.

Elroch

Factors of 8 are petty in any case. @tygxc is wedded to a massive error in the exponent.