Chess will never be solved, here's why

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Avatar of Optimissed
Elroch wrote:
Optimissed wrote:

You are right to be confident. You are wrong to be certain.
1 e4 e5 2 Ba6 loses for white

A more extreme example of the same.


Elroch, this is where you fall flat. Sticking to this principle of "we cannot know anything" is as wrong in principle as it's wrong in practice.

There is no excuse for believing I believe that. I have often directly contradicted it.

Ah so you just pick and choose. Seeing as you'd make a lousy philosopher, I suppose your philosophy is that you get to chop and change your ideas whenever you fancy and whenever you imagine it gives an (illusory) advantage in a discussion. You need to aim for some kind of consistency.

White giving away a bishop on the second move of a game loses by force and we can know that.

On the contrary, we know all facts that have been proved. One of those is that checkers is a draw with best play.

One could equally criticise you for your own certainty, after all. You condemn yourself, except in the eyes of a nihilist. Your own insistence that tygxc is wrong fails to your own principles. It's too much a mixed message.

It is true I have absolute faith in the rules of logic.

I also have great respect for the entirely different inductive reasoning of science, which leads to confidence but never absolute certainty.

But unlike some people such as tygxc , I never confuse the two.

Your problem is that you have no awareness of when you're being inductive and yet you think you're being deductive. You're quite clever but not clever enough for this type of discussion. Your refuge in supercilious comment don't work. You're out of your depth.

 

Avatar of Elroch
Optimissed wrote:
Elroch wrote:

@Ralphmcm, there are a few distinct types of solution. Here it has been generally acknowledged while we would be interested find an "ultra-weak solution" (proving what the result of chess with perfect play is, but failing to exhibit strategies to achieve it) but that it is extremely unlikely that a useful one exists, and have focussed almost entirely on the notion of a "weak solution". This consists of a complete, practical strategy for each player that guarantees getting the theoretical result. 

Part of this (and in practice achieved simultaneously, as for checkers) is to prove what the result of chess is with best play by both sides.

ok?


You really ought to study my posts more. Thee only viable strategy lies in "playing the best moves". These definitions have been written by idiots. They have no significance for the solution of chess.

While I have read your posts, this article and its ilk is what merits study. Your point does not have substance.

Do you really have the narcissistic arrogance to say the authors are "idiots"? They understand that what the work discussed has achieved is a weak solution. I am also 100% sure they understand ultraweak solutions of other games and why the distinction matters. They also very clearly understand why a weak solution is very different to a complete tablebase for checkers (which would provide a strong solution).

Avatar of Optimissed
Elroch wrote:
Optimissed wrote:
Elroch wrote:

@Ralphmcm, there are a few distinct types of solution. Here it has been generally acknowledged while we would be interested find an "ultra-weak solution" (proving what the result of chess with perfect play is, but failing to exhibit strategies to achieve it) but that it is extremely unlikely that a useful one exists, and have focussed almost entirely on the notion of a "weak solution". This consists of a complete, practical strategy for each player that guarantees getting the theoretical result. 

Part of this (and in practice achieved simultaneously, as for checkers) is to prove what the result of chess is with best play by both sides.

ok?


You really ought to study my posts more. Thee only viable strategy lies in "playing the best moves". These definitions have been written by idiots. They have no significance for the solution of chess.

While I have read your posts, this article and its ilk is what merits study. Your point does not have substance.

Do you really have the narcissistic arrogance to say the authors are "idiots"? They understand that what the work discussed has achieved is a weak solution. I am also 100% sure they understand ultraweak solutions of other games and why the distinction matters. They also very clearly understand why a weak solution is very different to a complete tablebase for checkers (which would provide a strong solution).


There's only one narcissist here Elroch. It's you. I've known it for approximately 12 years.

You should curb your pomposity if you want to argue with me. You're outclassed and also you make it pretty obvious. You talk down to tygxc. Now, I know we both disagree with him and we agree it;s wrong of him to make what we consider to be unsupported claims. Yet you're just as bad as he is in your way. You're trying to argue with me in my subject area. You really think you're the great shakes, don't you. But you're a university teacher with a masters in statistics, who pompously talks down to people and imagines he's an expert in anything and everything.

You've been doing it here for years. You're a good statistician, I'm sure, but regarding other areas of knowledge, I really wonder why you think you can talk down to people the way you do when you aren't actually amazingly bright.

OK goodnight.

Avatar of Optimissed

Oh and another thing. I know you have no compunction regarding being unpleasant to others, when they fail to meet your standards of understanding. I've seen you being pretty nasty to people quite a bit. So now you launch a personal attack on me, for disagreeing with you. Is there some reason I shouldn't report you for personal abuse?

You think you're in the big league don't you. But you're not in any big league, unless you want to talk to me and you're willing to stay polite, if you do so. I can make a strong case that chess analysis has nothing to do with game theory and that therefore game theory definitions have nothing to do with chess. You ought to have paid more attention to that post I wrote the other day. Why don't you try to refute it? Might be a good test of your ability.

That's why I made the comments I did. You're just as incapable as others you're criticising of getting you're head round ideas that are out of your very substantial comfort zone.

Avatar of DiogenesDue

It's always the other guy in Oblivimissed-world wink.png.

Avatar of Optimissed
btickler wrote:

It's always the other guy in Oblivimissed-world .

 

Not your argument, btickler and also, when either you or Elroch are concerned, that's very true. Statistically, that is.

Thought you said you didn't want me to troll you and yet here you are, trolling. No doubt you'll say I started it. Obviously, what Elroch said to me wasn't starting it, was it.

Avatar of idilis

everybody sing along.

also

Avatar of Optimissed

Haha!

Avatar of Optimissed
Ralphmcm wrote:

To return to original post, what does "Chess being solved" even mean?

Is it finding the best move for every possible position?


Finding the best moves in reasonable positions, since there's no real point in looking at random positions or those where one player has played so badly that they're obviously losing. For instance, perhaps by having played 1. e4 e5 2. Ba6, which Elroch seems to think may not be losing for white. Seems that tygxc and he make a wonderful pair. So similar in so many ways.

Avatar of DiogenesDue
Optimissed wrote:

Not your argument, btickler and also, when either you or Elroch are concerned, that's very true. Statistically, that is.

Thought you said you didn't want me to troll you and yet here you are, trolling. No doubt you'll say I started it. Obviously, what Elroch said to me wasn't starting it, was it.

I'm not arguing any points in discussion.   Just making a rather apparent observation.  Toughen up, it hardly rises to the low water mark of your usual fare.

Avatar of tygxc

@4107

"The large majority of the positions in those games have more than 8 pieces on the board."
++ The whole point is to calculate until the 7-men endgame table base,
or a forced 3-fold repetition, or a sure draw like some opposite colored bishop ending.

"the claim that every single opening played is known to be perfect"
++ Each opening is known to be perfect after chess is weakly solved:
after the calculation shows that black can draw against all reasonable white moves.

"Doing this task for chess cannot be done at present."
++ 10^17 positions is 1000 x more than 10^14, so chess is 1000 x more complicated, but now can be done in 5 years. It is not because chess is more complicated that it cannot be done.
Chess is even 100 million times more complicated than Losing Chess, despite the same 64 squares and the same 32 men.

"These are decisive games played against the engines you are relying on"
++ No, I do not rely on any decisive games, I rely on drawn games only.

'for 100% reliable evaluations" ++ The evaluation comes from the table base or from a prior 3-fold repetition or a prior human adjudication of e.g. an opposite colored bishop ending.

"the jump from good bet to certainty."
++ That is no bet, it is certainty. Once 1 e4 and 1 d4 are proven draws,
then it is absolutely 100% certain, no doubt at all, that 1 a4 cannot win for white either.
Likewise we do not know, if 1 Nf3 is any better or worse than 1 e4 or 1 d4, but we know for sure that once 1 Nf3 is proven to draw, that then 1 Nh3 cannot win for white either.

"1 e4 e5 2 Ba6 loses for white A more extreme example of the same."
++ It is absolutely 100% certain, no doubt at all that 1 e4 e5 2 Ba6 loses for white.
I even proved it is a forced checkmate in 82 @3936.

"You estimated it from a sample."
++ Yes, I estimated the 1 error in 10^20 positions from a sample.
There is some margin for error. Maybe it is not 1 in 10^20 but 1 in 10^19 or 1 in 10^22,
but that does not change anything fundamental. It is still less than 1 error in 10^17 positions.

"If you let the 10^9 nodes/s cloud engine run for 17 s, or a desktop for 4.7 hours, then the absolutely correct move will be among the top 4 engine moves in all but 1 case in 10^20.
I am not 100% sure if this is a wrong estimate or an uncertain estimate"
++ Yes, this is an estimate: it may well be 1 case in 10^19 or 10^22.
You can see for yourself. Set up any KRPP vs. KRP, let your desktop run for 4.7 hours, verify that the table base exact move is among the top 4 engine moves as predicted.

Avatar of Optimissed
btickler wrote:
Optimissed wrote:

Not your argument, btickler and also, when either you or Elroch are concerned, that's very true. Statistically, that is.

Thought you said you didn't want me to troll you and yet here you are, trolling. No doubt you'll say I started it. Obviously, what Elroch said to me wasn't starting it, was it.

I'm not arguing any points in discussion.   Just making a rather apparent observation.  Toughen up, it hardly rises to the low water mark of your usual fare.


No, I'm going the other way and becoming less tolerant of bad manners by others. If you want me to behave nicely after a narcissist calls me a narcissist because he can't actually think of a refutation of my post (because there isn't one) well I jolly well shan't, so there!I think that a lot of people here think that game theory consists of the strategy of games. It doesn't.

Avatar of Optimissed

Wow, interesting, I wonder if this will work again. I posted that comment by hitting control-enter.

Avatar of Optimissed

It works. Never knew that was a shortcut.

Avatar of Elroch
tygxc wrote:

@4107

"The large majority of the positions in those games have more than 8 pieces on the board."
++ The whole point is to calculate until the 7-men endgame table base,
or a forced 3-fold repetition, or a sure draw like some opposite colored bishop ending.

It is ridiculous to suggest that the opening position can be exhaustively analysed to a puny 7 piece tablebase. Chess has over 10^29 times as many positions as are in this tablebase. That's over 100,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 times as many.

The solution of checkers used a tablebase that was relatively a lot larger (in terms of log complexity)

"These are decisive games played against the engines you are relying on"
++ No, I do not rely on any decisive games, I rely on drawn games only.

Perhaps you are unaware, chess engines play chess against each other, and occasionally they lose. Glibly saying a little more time will make them unbeatable is not good enough for several reasons obvious to several of us.

Avatar of Elroch
Optimissed wrote:
Ralphmcm wrote:

To return to original post, what does "Chess being solved" even mean?

Is it finding the best move for every possible position?


Finding the best moves in reasonable positions, since there's no real point in looking at random positions or those where one player has played so badly that they're obviously losing. For instance, perhaps by having played 1. e4 e5 2. Ba6, which Elroch seems to think may not be losing for white. Seems that tygxc and he make a wonderful pair. So similar in so many ways.

I am probably more confident that white is lost after 1. e4 e5 2. Ba6 than that white cannot force a win from the standard starting position. I also recognise that this is an unproven result, according to the standards of mathematics, game theory and computer science, which correctly don't view results as definitely true based on inductive reasoning.

Avatar of DiogenesDue
Optimissed wrote:

No, I'm going the other way and becoming less tolerant of bad manners by others. If you want me to behave nicely after a narcissist calls me a narcissist because he can't actually think of a refutation of my post (because there isn't one) well I jolly well shan't, so there!I think that a lot of people here think that game theory consists of the strategy of games. It doesn't.

As if you were ever remotely tolerant wink.png.

I don't see anyone conflating game theory with solving chess here, except you.  Do you also conflate game theory and gamification?

Avatar of tygxc

@4130

"the opening position can be exhaustively analysed to a puny 7 piece tablebase"
++ That is also the expert opinion of the late GM Sveshnikov.
"Soon all openings will be given exact scores, and if the variant is correct, it will lead to a technical endgame in which a draw will be achieved with accurate defense."

"The solution of checkers used a tablebase that was relatively a lot larger"
++ The size of the tablebase does not matter much. log complexity is highest at 26 men and then decreases. See table 3. https://arxiv.org/pdf/2112.09386.pdf 

"chess engines play chess against each other, and occasionally they lose"
++ They lose very rarely if given enough time and if no unbalanced openings are imposed like now necessary in TCEC to prevent all draws.
They lose when they make a mistake, that is their top 1 move is not the right move. If they can always take back up to 3 times per position they never lose.

Avatar of tygxc

@4131
 "don't view results as definitely true based on inductive reasoning"

++ Apart from expert opinions and inductive reasoning based on AlphaZero, TCEC, ICCF, there is also deductive reasoning.
1 pawn is enough to win: by queening it.
1 tempo is not enough to win: you cannot queen a tempo.
1 bishop is enough to win: trade it for a pawn.

I even provided proof that 1 e4 e5 2 Ba6 is a forced checkmate in 82. @3936 

Avatar of Optimissed
Elroch wrote:
Optimissed wrote:
Ralphmcm wrote:

To return to original post, what does "Chess being solved" even mean?

Is it finding the best move for every possible position?


Finding the best moves in reasonable positions, since there's no real point in looking at random positions or those where one player has played so badly that they're obviously losing. For instance, perhaps by having played 1. e4 e5 2. Ba6, which Elroch seems to think may not be losing for white. Seems that tygxc and he make a wonderful pair. So similar in so many ways.

I am probably more confident that white is lost after 1. e4 e5 2. Ba6 than that white cannot force a win from the standard starting position. I also recognise that this is an unproven result, according to the standards of mathematics, game theory and computer science, which correctly don't view results as definitely true based on inductive reasoning.


What you call correctly, I would call incorrectly. You seem to wish to rely upon deductive reasoning. Where is your proof that anything you view as true after deduction is the result of a proof that's error-free? And so on until infinity.

Personally I am 100% sure that 1. e4 e5 2. Ba6 loses.