I think opening the door of an aeroplane at 20,000 feet and jumping out would be a good test. After all, there's no proof that you'll die. Go for it .... you could learn from it.
D.B. Cooper jumped from 10,000 feet. He's sort of a local legend. So from 20,000 feet you'd have the advantage of about twice as long to decide your next move.
The position is either a win, draw or a loss. In this case, it's a win for black. Probability isn't involved. How can it be, except for someone who believes that the win is down to chance?
Yes, the position is either a win, a draw, or a loss. But until every line has been calculated, there is no way to prove that it is a win for black. I believe it's a win for black, I'm almost certain of it. But there are many positions where a player is down a bishop but the position is a win or a draw. It's possible, no matter how unlikely, that white has a line that gets to one of those win/draw positions by force, even after 2. Ba6. And it will remain possible until someone, or something goes through every possible variation of 2. Ba6.
That seems pretty obvious. There are sacrifices in chess that often lead to winning. So it's also possible there is a very deep sacrifice (that no computer has even come close to discovering) somewhere in the opening or middle game. Which leads to a forced win, from the opening position. For either black or white.
For someone who pretends she believes that chess is a forced win for white, everything is obvious if it's contrary.