Chess will never be solved, here's why

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MARattigan

^^ Very grown up.

tygxc

@6599

"Post your 10/10 wins against SF15. You should have no difficulty if there's no uncertainty."
++ This shows a complete lack of understanding. A position being analytically drawn, won, or lost has nothing to do with that position being empirically drawn, won, or lost in a contest between two human or engine players.

1 e4 e5 2 Ba6? is analytically lost for white. It is a checkmate in 53. That does not mean a human cannot draw or even lose it as black against an engine, just like a human may even lose a game with queen odds against a grandmaster.

1 e4 e5 2 Ba6? loses. That is 100% certain and not 99.99% certain. Probalility is inappropriate for deterministic events. You can ask about the probability that player A wins position X against player B. That is empirical, not analytical. Probability is always linked to an experiment, i.e. empirical. The experiment can be coin tosses, or detecting radioactive decays, or playing chess games.

A player may know that KBN vs. K is a forced checkmate in less than 50 moves. That is 100% certain. He may however fail to do so in a game against an engine or human. His inability to checkmate does not make it less than 100% certain that the position is a forced checkmate in less than 50 moves.

12345678bear8
Chess
snoozyman
will never be solved
tygxc

@6630
is five years away from being weakly solved.

MARattigan
tygxc wrote:
  1. @6599

    "Post your 10/10 wins against SF15. You should have no difficulty if there's no uncertainty."
    ++ This shows a complete lack of understanding. A position being analytically drawn, won, or lost has nothing to do with that position being empirically drawn, won, or lost in a contest between two human or engine players.

    Totally agree with the second sentence. That's why neither you nor @Optimissed will venture to demonstrate against SF - you don't have an analysis.

    1 e4 e5 2 Ba6? is analytically lost for white. It is a checkmate in 53.

    Yes - a joke.

    That does not mean a human cannot draw or even lose it as black against an engine, just like a human may even lose a game with queen odds against a grandmaster.

    Another one you haven't analysed.

    1 e4 e5 2 Ba6? loses. That is 100% certain and not 99.99% certain.

    Or 100% certain that it doesn't lose. You don't know which. Like @Optimissed you guess. So do I, but I don't claim to know on that basis. Neither have I attempted to assign a probability to any outcome.

    Probalility is inappropriate for deterministic events.

    Not if the calculation of the outcome is impracticable owing to lack of sufficiently accurate measurement of the factors that determine the event or insufficient resources or lack of a suitable method to calculate the outcome. It's widely used and useful .

    But what is the relevance? Both you and @Optimissed are claiming certainty (without anything to back up the claim). Which point of view are you trying to argue?

    You can ask about the probability that player A wins position X against player B. That is empirical, not analytical. Probability is always linked to an experiment, i.e. empirical. The experiment can be coin tosses, or detecting radioactive decays, or playing chess games.

    A player may know that KBN vs. K is a forced checkmate in less than 50 moves. That is 100% certain. He may however fail to do so in a game against an engine or human. His inability to checkmate does not make it less than 100% certain that the position is a forced checkmate in less than 50 moves.

    More of what passes for analysis in your eyes.

    Players don't know that KBN vs. K is a forced checkmate in less than 50 moves. They may believe it because they've been told in the same way that they "know" there was a battle in the vicinity of Hastings, England in 1066 A.D. That's not analytical knowledge and useless as a guide to playing the endgame.

    A correct analysis shows it isn't necessarily so. Mostly false if the 50 move and triple repetition rules are in force. E.g.

     

    White to play, any ply count > 39
     
     
     
     
    Black ro play
Black to play
 
Black to play
 
Black to play
 
Either side to play

 

Either side to play


Nobody has ever published a complete analysis of this endgame for positions in which there have been prior repeated positions considered the same for the purposes of FIDE art.9.2 with the same material and I don't expect any soon. (KRvK might be feasible.) 


As for 1.e4 e5 2.Ba6 you have got just as far with solving that as you have with solving the starting position, Nowhere.

 

MARattigan
Optimissed wrote:

It should be obvious that tygxc is his own worst enemy, posting things like "mate in 52", which is very difficult to support. However, that doesn't alter the real thrust of the comment, which is that a competent person would know when analysis is necessary and when it isn't.

There is currently no way of judging the absolute competence of players, only competence relative to other players. Except (partially) when players play positions with material covered by tablebases or admit a practicable analysis. The exceptional case would suggest there are no competent players and never have been

Actually he said 53, but I think he's also said 82.

MARattigan

I agree that computers are pretty irrelevant apart from speeding things up a bit (a bit in this context). If chess ever gets a practical solution (it's been solved according to @tygxc's definition probably since it was first thought of) I think human intelligence will play a far larger rôle than Superficial Intelligence.

The difference between you and @Elroch and I is not about computers. It's about what would constitute a solution and the nature of any human thought that would arrive at one (though computers could be necessary to effect the arrival). In simple terms we don't count guessing as a solution.

Aragorn

I'm honestly impressed that this forum is still basically on topic.

Sinaan18

👋

lfPatriotGames
MARattigan wrote:

I agree that computers are pretty irrelevant apart from speeding things up a bit (a bit in this context). If chess ever gets a practical solution (it's been solved according to @tygxc's definition probably since it was first thought of) I think human intelligence will play a far larger rôle than Superficial Intelligence.

The difference between you and @Elroch and I is not about computers. It's about what would constitute a solution and the nature of any human thought that would arrive at one (though computers could be necessary to effect the arrival). In simple terms we don't count guessing as a solution.

That's no fun. If guessing isn't a solution then the title of this topic is right. Chess will never be solved. Why? Because guessing isn't a solution. 

But I still say for all practical purposes it's already been solved. 

tygxc

@6581

"computers are pretty irrelevant" ++ Without computers it is not possible.
Only with 3 powerful computers during 5 years non stop is it feasible to weakly solve chess.
10^17 relevant positions is too huge a number for unaided humans.

"human intelligence will play a far larger rôle"
++ Yes, incorporation of chess knowledge is beneficial.
That is also why Sveshnikov asked first for good assistants and second for modern computers.

"what would constitute a solution and the nature of any human thought"
++ We have examples: Checkers, Losing Chess, Connect Four, Nine Men's Morris...

"we don't count guessing as a solution" ++ No, nobody does.

tygxc

@6584

"for all practical purposes it's already been solved"
++ For all practical purpose chess is ultra-weakly solved: the game-theoretic value of the initial position is a draw.
We also have > 1000 perfect games with optimal play from both sides: ICCF WC Finals draws.
However chess is not yet weakly solved.
We know chess is a draw, but we do not yet know exactly how.
How to draw against 1 e4, 1 d4, 1 c4, 1 Nf3?

tygxc

Here is again the proof that 1 e4 e5 2 Ba6? loses by force for white.

If white plays differently, then white loses quicker.
A win is easier to prove than a draw.
Even without such constructive proof it is and was known that 1 e4 e5 2 Ba6? loses: a full piece down with no compensation of any kind.
I gave above proof that 1 g4? loses by force for white, which is more surprising a result.

MARattigan
tygxc wrote:

@6581

"computers are pretty irrelevant" ++ Without computers it is not possible.
Only with 3 powerful computers during 5 years non stop is it feasible to weakly solve chess.
10^17 relevant positions is too huge a number for unaided humans.

Gauss managed quadratic reciprocity for ℵ₀ pairs of primes. That's more even than than the number you should have quoted. And they hadn't even invented computers.

In any case with your definition of "solved" it doesn't even need an abacus.

"human intelligence will play a far larger rôle"
++ Yes, incorporation of chess knowledge is beneficial.
That is also why Sveshnikov asked first for good assistants and second for modern computers.

I said "intelligence". Not the same as "stupidity" - look it up in Webster's.

"what would constitute a solution and the nature of any human thought"
++ We have examples: Checkers, Losing Chess, Connect Four, Nine Men's Morris...

"we don't count guessing as a solution" ++ No, nobody does.

What, guess or count their guesses as solutions? Some people give a very good imitation of both.

 

lfPatriotGames
tygxc wrote:

@6584

"for all practical purposes it's already been solved"
++ For all practical purpose chess is ultra-weakly solved: the game-theoretic value of the initial position is a draw.
We also have > 1000 perfect games with optimal play from both sides: ICCF WC Finals draws.
However chess is not yet weakly solved.
We know chess is a draw, but we do not yet know exactly how.
How to draw against 1 e4, 1 d4, 1 c4, 1 Nf3?

We don't know chess is a draw. For example, I know it's a forced win for white. So what "we know" is really just a guess. And as Mar said, guessing isn't a solution. 

When chess was invented it was intended to be a contest between two people. The better player wins, regardless of color choice. So what I mean when I say for all practical purposes it's been solved is that chess is no longer just a contest between two people. Now, computers will beat humans every time. So, the game of chess as it was intended has been solved. Computers always win. 

But as far as which color wins, or doesn't win, with computers, we don't actually know. We guess. So as long as we are guessing, white wins by force. 

DiogenesDue
tygxc wrote:

Here is again the proof that 1 e4 e5 2 Ba6? loses by force for white.

If white plays differently, then white loses quicker.
A win is easier to prove than a draw.
Even without such constructive proof it is and was known that 1 e4 e5 2 Ba6? loses: a full piece down with no compensation of any kind.
I gave above proof that 1 g4? loses by force for white, which is more surprising a result.

There's no proof using engine analysis.  Engines are imperfect, as proven by the fact that they still get measurably better with every release.  This has only been pointed out to you about a hundred times in this and other threads.  That isn't even hyperbole.

Your whole premise to solving chess is to redefine the solution into your dead hero's statement.  Backwards, as ever.

MARattigan
Optimissed wrote:
MARattigan wrote:

I agree that computers are pretty irrelevant apart from speeding things up a bit (a bit in this context). If chess ever gets a practical solution (it's been solved according to @tygxc's definition probably since it was first thought of) I think human intelligence will play a far larger rôle than Superficial Intelligence.

The difference between you and @Elroch and I is not about computers. It's about what would constitute a solution and the nature of any human thought that would arrive at one (though computers could be necessary to effect the arrival). In simple terms we don't count guessing as a solution.

The difference is between you and me and not between you and I. Anyway, it's your assertion that I'm guessing.

Imagine this. You are asked to add together 27 and 65. You can't do it because it involves a "carry over". Teacher gives you the right answer though, but you accuse her of guessing because she can't possibly work out such a difficult sum.

It's just the same, even though you may think it isn't. To people who understand chess, the answer is just as clear as 27 + 65.

The difference is between you and @Elroch and me, but point acknowledged.

The cases aren't the same. The teacher would be able to work out the sum, but you can't work out the position - otherwise youl'd have no problem with my challenge to demonstrate it against SF.

MARattigan
tygxc wrote:

Here is again the proof that 1 e4 e5 2 Ba6? loses by force for white.

If white plays differently, then white loses quicker.
A win is easier to prove than a draw.
Even without such constructive proof it is and was known that 1 e4 e5 2 Ba6? loses: a full piece down with no compensation of any kind.
I gave above proof that 1 g4? loses by force for white, which is more surprising a result.

Is that pathetic or is that pathetic?

HurtU

It's possible - in fact likely - that the advantage of the first move might be enough to win by force. A hypothetical super power chess computer running at insane speeds might claim, prior to making its first move: "Mate in 2,212,598,303,505,004,977"