@8826
"It could be even too"
++ No, as chess is a draw every decisive game must contain an odd number of errors.
"It assumes rare events that aren’t interconnected. Errors are rare and connected"
++ If they are rare they are not connected. At 1 min/move all 21 decisive games contain 1 error. So there is no 2nd or 3rd error that can be connected.
@8828
"A Poisson distribution explicitly assumes for it to be very likely to be zero errors"
++ That is the case here.
'Across all variations the percentage of drawn games increases with longer thinking times.
This seems to suggest that the starting position might be theoretically drawn in these chess variants, like in Classical chess'
A Poisson distribution explicitly assumes for it to be very likely to be zero errors, which is simply false