Chess will never be solved, here's why

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Elroch
tygxc wrote:

@10857

"10 ^17, which seems too low" ++ It may seem so, but after some well-placed thought you might understand. The 10^37 comes from An upper bound for the number of chess diagrams without promotion.
No promotions to pieces not previously taken is a bit too restrictive, that is where the *10 comes from to include positions with 3 or 4 queens.
The / 10,000 is pruning: it stems from inspecting a random sample of 10,000 positions without promotions to pieces not previously captured and finding none can result from optimal play by both sides.
The Sqrt is for weakly solving: only 1 black reply for N white moves, i.e. 1 * N = N positions instead of N black replies to N white moves, i.e. N * N = N² positions.

"the arguments of Svesnikov" ++ I admit that at first I was surprised by GM Sveshnikov's claim to weakly solve chess in 5 years if given good assistants and modern computers.
After considering it and after well-placed thought I found he was right.
Now the ICCF World Championship Finals confirm this: 106 draws out of 106 games.

1. Is underpromotion ever the sole best move in a competitive chess game?

Yes

2. Is there some N such that the existence of N previous underpromotions in a line safely implies that underpromotion is not the sole best move?

No

Consequence: no underpromotion can be neglected on the basis of a zero ply analysis, as you suggest.

tygxc

@10858

"any thought processes nor any arguments" ++ Capablanca mentions that 1 e4 and 1 d4 open diagonals for the bishop and queen. 1 e4 and 1 d4 also control the center. 1 a4 does neither.
AlphaZero ranks 1 d4, 1 e4, 1 Nf3 as top 3 and 1 a4 as #13 of the 20 legal first white moves.
The ICCF World Championship Finalists play 1 d4 most, then 1 e4, then Nf3, nothing else.
"completely unknown waters"
++ That might be an argument for a blitz game, but not for the ICCF World Championship Finals. After 1 e4 or 1 d4 black must work to draw, after 1 a4 white must work to draw.

Elroch
tygxc wrote:

@10858

"any thought processes nor any arguments" ++ Capablanca mentions that 1 e4 and 1 d4 open diagonals for the bishop and queen.

The sole role of heuristics is in the selection of strategy moves (i.e, the moves selected to obtain the optimum result). There is no problem with reducing the choices for white to one in all positions in one strategy, and the same for black in the other strategy.

IN EACH CASE ALL LEGAL MOVES FOR THE OPPONENT NEED TO BE EXPLICITLY ANALYSED BECAUSE A ZERO PLY EVALUATION CAN NEVER BE RELIED UPON (UNLESS THE GAME ENDS AT THAT POINT).

For an example of both of these facts see the solution of checkers, which took over 1000 years of CPU time. If you are unable to understand the paper, I can point out the specific parts that are relevant.

Checkers is solved

tygxc

@10862

"1. Is underpromotion ever the sole best move in a competitive chess game? Yes" ++ Correct.

"1. Is there some N such that the existence of N previous underpromotions in a line safely implies that underpromotion is not the sole best move? No" ++ That is besides the point.

"no underpromotion can be neglected on the basis of a zero ply analysis" ++ Yes.
Look at the 3 random samples.
First position: 7 white rooks, 3 black bishops. Underpromotion to a rook or bishop instead of a queen can only be optimal play to avoid a draw by stalemate. It makes no sense for both sides to avoid a draw. Hence the position cannot result from optimal play by both sides.
Second position: 4 white rooks, 2 black dark square bishops.
Same argument: cannot result from optimal play by both sides.
Third position: 4 white rooks, 3 black rooks.
Same argument: cannot result from optimal play by both sides.

tygxc

@10864

"ALL LEGAL MOVES FOR THE OPPONENT NEED TO BE EXPLICITLY ANALYSED BECAUSE A ZERO PLY EVALUATION CANNOT BE RELIED UPON"
++ NO. IT IS BENEFICIAL TO INCORPORATE GAME KNOWLEDGE IN SOLVING A GAME.
IT IS ALLOWED TO APPLY LOGIC IN SOLVING A GAME.
SOLVING A GAME DOES NOT REQUIRE TO SHUT OFF THE BRAIN.

"solution of checkers, which took over 1000 years of CPU time"
++ Mostly for generating the endgame table base.
We already have a 7-men endgame table base for Chess.
Besides 17 finalists * 16 engines/finalist * 2 years = 544 years of CPU time,
anno 2024, more powerful CPU than Schaeffer 2007.

Elroch
tygxc wrote:

@10862

"1. Is underpromotion ever the sole best move in a competitive chess game? Yes" ++ Correct.

"1. Is there some N such that the existence of N previous underpromotions in a line safely implies that underpromotion is not the sole best move? No" ++ That is besides the point.

"no underpromotion can be neglected on the basis of a zero ply analysis" ++

Yes.
Look at the 3 random samples.
First position: 7 white rooks, 3 black bishops. Underpromotion to a rook or bishop instead of a queen can only be optimal play to avoid a draw by stalemate. It makes no sense for both sides to avoid a draw. Hence the position cannot result from optimal play by both sides.

You would require a rigorous proof for each class of positions where you need a shortcut. This is enormously demanding, and likely intractable.

It is not as simple as you suggest, even in your insignificant number of examples. In principle it can be that later it would be impossible to mate because a stalemate position blocked a route to mate. This may seem unlikely, but you would need a proof for every underpromotion you wish to ignore.

Note that to avoid all positions with a certain material balance, you need not just to exclude one underpromotion, you need to exclude ALL underpromotions that could lead to such positions. Just one exception demolishes your attempted shortcut.

tygxc

@10867

"why 106 out of 106 does anything at all regarding Svesnikov's pronouncements"
++ They now do what he said:
'I will bring all openings to technical endgames and weakly solve chess'
They are the good assistants, and their computers are the modern computers he asked for.

tygxc

@10869

"in your insignificant number of examples"
++ The 3 random samples are representative for the 10^44 legal positions.
They all look like that.
There are only 10^37 legal positions without promotions to pieces not previously captured.
That is 1 in 10^7.

"In principle it can be that later it would be impossible to mate"
++ It cannot be optimal for both sides to avoid a draw by stalemate.

"you need to exclude ALL underpromotions"
++ Gourion excludes all promotions to pieces not previously captured.
That is too restrictive, hence *10 to include 3 or 4 queens.
Inspection of a random sample of 10,000 positions without promotions to pieces not previously captured reveals none can result from optimal play by both sides, hence / 10,000.
10^37 * 10 / 10,000 = 10^34
Sqrt (10^34) = 10^17 for weakly solving

tygxc

@10866

"I don't think that 1. a4 damages white's position." ++ White can still draw.

"1. a3 is stronger" ++ Yes. AlphaZero ranks 1 a3 #10 and 1 a4 #13.
1 a4 weakens square b4, while 1 a3 strengthens it.
E.g. 1 a4 e5 2 e4 Nf6 3 Nc3 Bb4, while 1 a3 e5 2 e4 Nf6 3 Nc3 interdicts 3...Bb4.

Elroch

You are like someone who turns up at a chess tournament and tries to argue that his table tennis serves will ensure he wins.

DiogenesDue
tygxc wrote:

@10867

"why 106 out of 106 does anything at all regarding Svesnikov's pronouncements"
++ They now do what he said:
'I will bring all openings to technical endgames and weakly solve chess'
They are the good assistants, and their computers are the modern computers he asked for.

Translation: I have given up on my premise, and this is all I have left.

After years of everyone telling you your premise falls apart, you have decided to lower the bar to what actually exists now, and calling Sveshnikov's work ergo done. It's a weak capitulation, and obviously not "solving chess" at all.

DiogenesDue
Optimissed wrote:

I'm not quite clear why 106 out of 106 does anything at all regarding Svesnikov's pronouncements. My instinct would be that it has zero bearing on them.

Your instinct based on a week or two of *other* people saying that 106 draws does not prove anything...you're welcome.

tygxc

@10876

"you and Elroch are using contrasting, working definitions"
++ I think we agree on the Van den Herik definition, but Elroch has a puristic interpretation of it.

DiogenesDue
TumoKonnin wrote:
Optimissed wrote:

It cannot logically be wrong, since we know that games can last for 80 half plies and we know that there are potentially 4 candidate moves per ply. Therefore 4^80 is reasonable and actually very low for an estimate of the number of different moves that become possible if the game potentially branches four ways every half move for 40 moves.

This is wrong because it's too low but I just wanted to see where you were with it. What are your qualifications in maths, tygxc? I don't really have any maths qualifications, except for an English "A level" in maths and I did pass the first year of a mechanical Engineering degree, which involves a great deal of maths, with very good marks at Liverpool University in 1970 but I dropped out and went abroad. I also passed the first year of a computing degree in 1992 but switched to philosophy. In each case, there were 80 plus people on the course and in each case my overall marks were well within the top 10%. That doesn't mean I'm good at maths although I was an arithmetic prodigy when I was about 9. It just means I know my way around the subject. So what are your qualifications?

We dont know if ur lying or not

He's not lying. Tygxc and Optimissed are daft and doddering, respectively. Optmissed is here arguing about Tygxc's process of fudging his way down to 10^17. This process has been refuted dozens of times in this thread. Optimissed does not remember things for very long (except his stories), and is re-inventing the wheel (something he often does, while claiming he just came up with something). Tygxc's reduction from 10^44 to 10^17 does not work. That's the whole reason Tygxc is pushing the ICCF and the 106 draws now...because his numbers don't work, so he is moving the goalposts. Optimissed is just floundering along as he usually does in these type of threads...tossing in nonsense or restating the obvious and then claiming he rules the discussion...it's nothing new, he's been doing it for 10 years...but his memory is getting worse over time. Thus the claims about "you've never said this", "I figured this out myself", etc.

There used to be a third crackpot, Ponz, who faded into the sunset years ago. The difference was, Ponz was a former US correspondence chess champion, and had some credentials for posting the premise that chess is a forced draw, but he had dementia (self-admitted) and his reasoning became much like you see here with Tygxc and Optimissed...incessantly repeating a bunch of stuff that proves nothing in the end.

DiogenesDue
tygxc wrote:

@10876

"you and Elroch are using contrasting, working definitions"
++ I think we agree on the Van den Herik definition, but Elroch has a puristic interpretation of it.

I think you mean a correct interpretation of it.

mrhjornevik
playerafar wrote

Hi ! @mrhjornevik 
Are you suggesting that all infinities are equal?

No the opposite happy.png

There are a infinite number of infinities, and each is infinitly bigger then the last.

Elroch
tygxc wrote:

@10869

"in your insignificant number of examples"
++ The 3 random samples are representative for the 10^44 legal positions.
They all look like that.
There are only 10^37 legal positions without promotions to pieces not previously captured.
That is 1 in 10^7.

"In principle it can be that later it would be impossible to mate"
++ It cannot be optimal for both sides to avoid a draw by stalemate.

Exactly. Here you seem to have got lost in the simple logic. The scenario is that player A underpromotes because it is the only way to win. If he promoted to a queen, the route to the win that would work after the underpromotion happens to be blocked by a statemate.

connorcomitscarizard

what the f**K does that even mean

DiogenesDue
connorcomitscarizard wrote:

what the [snip] does that even mean

You seem to have wandered out of your corral.

mrhjornevik

What i dont understand is someone can make predictions about what increased computer power might discover in a 100 years?

It might be that being white being the first to move actualy is a zugzwang where black can win by just following a matrix regardless of what white does.