@10858
"any thought processes nor any arguments" ++ Capablanca mentions that 1 e4 and 1 d4 open diagonals for the bishop and queen. 1 e4 and 1 d4 also control the center. 1 a4 does neither.
AlphaZero ranks 1 d4, 1 e4, 1 Nf3 as top 3 and 1 a4 as #13 of the 20 legal first white moves.
The ICCF World Championship Finalists play 1 d4 most, then 1 e4, then Nf3, nothing else.
"completely unknown waters"
++ That might be an argument for a blitz game, but not for the ICCF World Championship Finals. After 1 e4 or 1 d4 black must work to draw, after 1 a4 white must work to draw.
@10857
"10 ^17, which seems too low" ++ It may seem so, but after some well-placed thought you might understand. The 10^37 comes from An upper bound for the number of chess diagrams without promotion.
No promotions to pieces not previously taken is a bit too restrictive, that is where the *10 comes from to include positions with 3 or 4 queens.
The / 10,000 is pruning: it stems from inspecting a random sample of 10,000 positions without promotions to pieces not previously captured and finding none can result from optimal play by both sides.
The Sqrt is for weakly solving: only 1 black reply for N white moves, i.e. 1 * N = N positions instead of N black replies to N white moves, i.e. N * N = N² positions.
"the arguments of Svesnikov" ++ I admit that at first I was surprised by GM Sveshnikov's claim to weakly solve chess in 5 years if given good assistants and modern computers.
After considering it and after well-placed thought I found he was right.
Now the ICCF World Championship Finals confirm this: 106 draws out of 106 games.
1. Is underpromotion ever the sole best move in a competitive chess game?
Yes
2. Is there some N such that the existence of N previous underpromotions in a line safely implies that underpromotion is not the sole best move?
No
Consequence: no underpromotion can be neglected on the basis of a zero ply analysis, as you suggest.