To come back to the double error probability
P(double error)
= P (A errs & B misses the win)
= P (A errs) * P (B misses the win | A has erred)
< P (A errs) * P (A errs)
= P² (A errs)
= P² (single error).
P (B misses the win | A has erred) < P(A errs)
for 2 reasons:
- B has more information: he sees the move played by A and thus looks 1 ply deeper
- The error by A is more likely to result from a short thinking time 2-5 days/move instead of a long thinking time 5-10 days/move. B is more likely to spend a normal or long thinking time 5-10 days/move when B suspects an error by A, e.g. when the move A played is not the move B expected. B is thus more likely to spot the error by A than A is to make the error.
my bio is legendary. lmao 🤣🤣