Carlsen is probably sitting back in his new $10,000 recliner right now in his new secluded house in Norway, complete with manicured gardens and 3 swimming pools, grinning like a Cheshire cat and thinking to himself "Eeeexxxxxxccccceeeeeelllllaaaaannnnnttttt, this next WC is looking easier and easier!" 
Does Anand even have a "puncher's chance"? Part 2
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SmyslovFan wrote:
No, Josef. Anand was the first among equals, much like Botvinnik in the 1950s.
Kasparov dominated tournament chess from 1985-2000. Carlsen is Kasparov without a Karpov to push him. Carlsen only has Kasparov's legacy to pursue.
The only player who, at his best, can challenge Carlsen in a match is Kramnik. Kramnik's openings and technical skill, when healthy, are the second best in the world. Kramnik clearly wasn't at his best this time, but in the last Candidates, we saw a glimpse of what a great match Kramnik-Carlsen could have been.
Strangely these skills haven't been good enough to win a c'ship match or candidates since 2006
Apr 1, 2014
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#64
I think "Punchers chance" doesn't really apply to a chess match. In boxing, one lucky shot can win the entire event. But in chess, it only wins one game.
It is very difficult to stay on top of the hill. Most will drown themselves in luxury, women, and the other finer things life has to offer. Very few has the discipline needed to keep "the eye of the tiger". We will see how long "the wonder boy" will be king...and who will be man enough to step up to the plate...and prove him only human...
The first match was a lot more one-sided than I thought it would be, and to be honest I can't see that much as changed since then.
varelse1 wrote:
I think Caruana will be Carlsens greatest challenge.
Or possibly someone we haven't heard of yet. Or even someone who isn't born yet.
If Ivanchuk could be cleaned up and given effective rehab, we'd have the match to top Fischer-Spassky.
{ 
what's your man doing standing on all those skulls ? }
madhacker wrote:
varelse1 wrote:
I think Caruana will be Carlsens greatest challenge.
Or possibly someone we haven't heard of yet. Or even someone who isn't born yet.
Spencer Bledsoe!
Come on, you know he is going to win Survivor! So beating Carlsen should be easy!
Anand matches up very well with Carlsen on pure chess skills, but endurance is another matter. Add mental strength to that and it makes Carlsen a very difficult opponent for anyone. I would love to see Anand win, and who knows, it may very well happen even though highly unlikely.
Apr 1, 2014
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#71
Carlsen admits he was rather nervous last match. Being that it was his first WCC match. As a result, he drifted through the first two games, agreeing to quick draws.
This time around, he will be attacking Anand from the moment his feet hit the ground. I am afraid Vishy doesn't really stand a chance.
Apr 1, 2014
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#72
I am afraid Vishy doesn't really stand a chance.
As true as that statement feels (with stats and experiences to back that up), you DO have to stop and chuckle at the fact that THIS is exactly what peer-GMs and people who have a more qualified "gut feeling" about things (than anybody in this forum thread) said about his chances in the Candidates.
The candidates might have been a perfect storm, a bizarre alignment of planets that forced all the other contenders to play shakily and for Vishy to suddenly wake up to play clean, calm and decisive chess.
But still:
Impossible < ----- lots of room between -----> Improbable
Anticipating a fun match is better than a cynically expecting a repeat of Chennai ... atleast for me. :)
Apr 1, 2014
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#73
I would love to see the plan VA's team is constructing....just forgets and shiggles....he's gonna get laffed right out of Norway....
....
p.s. Vishy's old and in the way....
Shivsky wrote:
I am afraid Vishy doesn't really stand a chance.
As true as that statement feels (with stats and experiences to back that up), you DO have to stop and chuckle at the fact that THIS is exactly what peer-GMs and people who have a more qualified "gut feeling" about things (than anybody in this forum thread) said about his chances in the Candidates.
The candidates might have been a perfect storm, a bizarre alignment of planets that forced all the other contenders to play shakily and for Vishy to suddenly wake up to play clean, calm and decisive chess.
But still:
Impossible < ----- lots of room between -----> Improbable
Anticipating a fun match is better than a cynically expecting a repeat of Chennai ... atleast for me. :)
To be fair Anand didn't impress at Zurich beforehand, he was behind Carlsen and several others. At the Candidates he had a great start and then the others scored poorly while taking risks enabling a steady performance in the second half of the tournament to win easily.
One thing I always remember from a "professional poker player" friend of mine...never put your house on any bet. While I agree that on paper this should be a walk in the park for the kid from Norway...the problem is that the game is not played on paper. Time after time, overwelming favourites have lost to underdogs who were given no chance to win...and yet they did.
Probably much less so than the times the underdog lost.
"They match up better vs Carlsen and that is seen in their games. This is generally accepted."
As evidenced by Hikaru's 0 wins (and numerous losses) against Carlsen in classical time controls.
Frankly I had thought the opposite -- back in 2013 Magnus still only had a few recent wins against Vishy which is what made Anand's supporters optimistic. But of course the three unanswered wins by Magnus changed that.
Apr 1, 2014
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#78
Shivsky wrote:
Well that's the whole point: Carlsen is a demolition machine, a beast and appears unstoppable. You think Team Anand doesn't know that?
So was Kaspy back in 2000. Kramnik (granted, a much younger one) out-prepared him. It is not inconcievable that Anand's team will come up with a plan. They started on a plan last year ... and ahem ... the first draft (chennai) wasn't too successful, that's still a lot of data for their team to crunch down and try to do better.
Anand's past-his-prime performance for many years has earned him a lot of criticism, but this old man loves chess (probably more than anybody else in this forum for sure) and he obviously thinks he can face Carlsen again, even if we don't. What he did these past few weeks convinces me that even if the world doesn't fancy his chances, he bloody well does.
What transpires in the months leading to November (psychological manuvering, venue controversies, tournament performances etc.) will be very, very interesting.
I agree, Anand has rediscovered his passion for chess and I expect him to give Carlsen all he wants. Root for the Old Guy!!!!
Zinsch wrote:
SlickMick wrote:
Being an Anand fan I felt much better about his chances against Carlsen during the round 12 game against Andreikin Dmitry, where he had a decisive advantage. After Anand opted for a draw (3-fold) I now have major concerns.
You should take the tournament situation into account. Anand didn't need to risk it. A draw was enough to keep a comfortable lead.
Same for Carlsen in the Sinquefeld cup. He just has more of a competitive edge.
p.s. Necro.
Yeah, Sinquefield... it's just admirable that he can start off with a worse position, then improve it, and try to win it against someone like Aronian, when you can win the tournament immediately by accepting the draw! Hell, strong GMs (such as Pavel Eljanov) are willing to agree to early draws in the last round even when all they get is a tie for first!
Not only is he a great player, just in general he has incredible willpower and energy.
I think Caruana will be Carlsens greatest challenge.