Does The Caro Exchange Slightly Favor Black

I don't see why anyone would want to play the Caro exchange. First you have a 2 to 1 center pawn majority. 2, your biggest target, your d pawn is easily defended by the bishop, and easily the knight after a natural developing knight move. I get people use panov attack, but doesn't it favor black after an exchange there, as white has no center pawns? Even if you don't exchange, I would imagine a line would go like this

I think this is better for black, even though white is up a tempo after the exchange, this isn't enough in my opinion for losing a center pawn for a wing pawn. Any thoughts or reasons why somebody would play this?

Here's my take.  The open e-file is helpful after castling, and eventually one or two pawn exchanges in the big center will either liquidate the small center, or leave both sides with isolated d-pawns.  Then each side will probably have no advantage in the center. 

 

I like Nd7 instead of Bf5 to attack c4, and a3 to support b4 instead of an early Nf3.  The MCO shows 4..Nf6 5.Nc3, followed by ..Nc6, ..e6, or ..g6.  Hope this helps.

@krecs

The Panov and Exchange are distinct lines. In your diagram, Bf5 is a known mistake.

@dave863

Nd7 is unnecessarily passive, of course Nc6 is better. And a3+b4 is not correct unless White goes for the c5 lines.

The problem with the 5...Bf5 line is that the white squares on the queen side become incredibly weak, easily exploitable. As someone who plays Caro-Cann as the main response to 1. e4, I absolutely dread the 7. Qb3 move. It's hard to find a good continuation for black; aside from 7...Qd7, every move either leads to a loss of the pawn, or significant weakening of black's pawn structure and white squares, or puts the queen on a vulnerable spot easily exploitable with minor pieces. But 7...Qd7 takes away an important square for the knight, so the knight has to develop to c6, where he does a poor job covering up the weaknesses on the queen side.

I definitely prefer white here; in fact, I would even prefer the bishop to be on g4 at the moment, so it can later be exchanged for the f3 knight looking at the vulnerable e5 square; bishop on f5 really doesn't do much and can be safely ignored for the time being.