does the Glicko system make the RD go down too quickly?

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ice_cream_cake

Hi,

I made this account to play chess casually just for fun, not to study or anything. Hence, unrated rapids, but I also play rated bullet and blitz because I find that the wait times are too long otherwise.

I know that chess.com uses the Glicko RD system. I feel that I started this account rated WAY too high in blitz -- I was in the neighborhood of 1700 for all of the first like, 50 blitzes or something (got lucky with like 23/50 wins). Games around here are pretty hard for me, and feel higher than my level. I've quickly dropped since then, and I'm quite confident that ~1700 was WAY too high. But the fact that the RD stabilized pretty quickly makes me wonder, should the RD drop more slowly? After about only 40 games, the rating adjustments stabilized to a k-factor of 16. Seems like it is underestimating variance, or at least for my case.

justbefair

If you look at your archive, it shows that your blitz rating started at 1600, which is pretty close to your current rating of 1531.

If you look at your RD factor, it is currently 41 for blitz. https://api.chess.com/pub/player/ice_cream_cake/stats

ice_cream_cake

I'm sorry, I don't know how that addresses the question....

justbefair

Well, the first thing was that I checked out your assertions that you started too high. It looks like you started off at 1600, which is close to where you are.

The second thing is that chess.com doesn't use a k-factor.

The ratings formulae are given in the second of the two links I posted.

https://www.chess.com/article/view/chess-ratings---how-they-work

http://www.glicko.net/research/gdescrip.pdf

ice_cream_cake

Sorry but I don't think you are answering my question. My question is whether the RD should go down more slowly. I don't think I misunderstand how the rating system works. (Okay, maybe I got some details wrong, but that is beside the point.)

justbefair

Discussions of the RD factor have declined since chess.com stopped posting it in player statistics.

From what I have seen, 41 is not particularly low. I have seen many near 20.

ice_cream_cake

I see, thanks for clarifying. So I guess despite my perception that my rating "stabilized", the system recognizes that I still have a lot of variance.