First move-advantage more of a believe than real?

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Xilmi

Tal-Memorial 2013:

White wins: 6
Black wins: 11

If it's possible to have results like that at top-level, it doesn't really look like the first-move-advantage of white can be that big and could actually be more of a psychological one.

Oecleus
Moses2792796 wrote:

What do you know about statistics?  That sample size is way too small.  Look in any database with thousands of master games and you will see that white always does slightly better.

By your logic if I were to take a coin and flip 5 heads in a row (not that hard to do), then I should assume that the coin is more likely to come up heads than tails.

Yea, thats like saying if you flip a coin 5 times and get heads 4 times and tails once then somehow we should challenge the idea that coins are 50-50.

vinsvis

Still, you might have some point Xilmi. See for example Adorjan's book Black is ok, and the awesome Jonathan Rowson's Chess for Zebra's. They say that maybe black's option to react to white's moves is worth more or as much as white's initiative. In theory it's even possible that when/if computers have 'solved' chess, the conclusion is that white is in zugzwang on the first move. Now that would be something.

asadinator
vinfish wrote:

Still, you might have some point Kimri. See for example Adorjan's book Black is ok, and the awesome Jonathan Rowson's Chess for Zebra's. They say that maybe black's option to react to white's moves is worth more or as much as white's initiative. In theory it's even possible that when/if computers have 'solved' chess, the conclusion is that white is in zugzwang on the first move. Now that would be something.

Haha

xxvalakixx

White has the initiative, so moving first is definitely an advantage. It might be not so high, but advantage. Black most often fights for equal positions, while white fights for having a little advantage from the opening. 17 games mean nothing.

Xilmi

I'm not saying there is no advantage for white, but when in a top-level-tournament it can be the other way around, I feel that a lot of people make it look like it is much bigger than it actually is.

I'm mostly talking about how people in my club seem to see it. They do as if playing black is a huge burden and if white wins, he was supposed to anyways and if black wins, it's a huge accomplishment.

Like the actual difference is extremely small but what people make out of it is like its massive.

Shuhister

White have no advantage actually. Actually it is black, who decice what game will be played, so it is equal.

finns
Oecleus wrote:
Moses2792796 wrote:

What do you know about statistics?  That sample size is way too small.  Look in any database with thousands of master games and you will see that white always does slightly better.

By your logic if I were to take a coin and flip 5 heads in a row (not that hard to do), then I should assume that the coin is more likely to come up heads than tails.

Yea, thats like saying if you flip a coin 5 times and get heads 4 times and tails once then somehow we should challenge the idea that coins are 50-50.

51% of the time coins have what was originally face up face up when it lands.

finns
Xilmi wrote:

Tal-Memorial 2013:

White wins: 6
Black wins: 11

If it's possible to have results like that at top-level, it doesn't really look like the first-move-advantage of white can be that big and could actually be more of a psychological one.

Statistics. White scores 53%.

Xilmi
finns wrote:

51% of the time coins have what was originally face up face up when it lands.

I heared that people who practice long enough can flip coins in a way that in roundabout 80% they get what they tried to get. ^^

waffllemaster

First move-advantage more of a believe than real?

Not exactly a novel thought, that the first move advantage may not be much...  after all best play is assumed a draw.

 

Xilmi wrote:

Tal-Memorial 2013:

White wins: 6
Black wins: 11

If it's possible to have results like that at top-level, it doesn't really look like the first-move-advantage of white can be that big and could actually be more of a psychological one.

Look at overall stats.  White wins more often.

beardogjones
Xilmi wrote:

Tal-Memorial 2013:

White wins: 6
Black wins: 11

If it's possible to have results like that at top-level, it doesn't really look like the first-move-advantage of white can be that big and could actually be more of a psychological one.

If it merely psycho-logikill how come computer versus computer

games also come out favoring white?

zborg

The two most common elements in the universe are hydrogen and stupidity.

This thread should quit while it's NOT ahead.  Sorry.

If you want to be convinced that the first move is "NOT" an advantage, try playing the c3-sicilian (from the white side).

Very easy if you're Shevesnikov, very hard if you are not.  Laughing

beardogjones

Please be relevant, helpful and nice!

Elubas

Even in the statistics for my online games, my wins as white (with any time control, even bullet!) have a few percentage points over my wins with black. White is generally under a little less pressure and so he can get away with a few more things than black could. It's not a total game changer but it serves as a modestly helpful cushion, and generally its effect can be seen over the course of dozens of games.

Elubas

Strangely, I didn't notice there were so many black wins at the tal memorial even though I followed it pretty closely. Didn't pop out to me for some reason.

AdorableMogwai

Computer analysis shows white always starts with an advantage and usually maintains it for at least the first 10 moves or so.

Also consider scenarios like an endgame where each side has a pawn racing down the board, or situations where each side is about to be checkmated. It seems to me like going first in the game allows white to more easily be on the favorable side of those situations.

Kingpatzer

While there seems to be some real advantage to having the first move in general (as any purusal of the distribution of game results in a large database will clearly show); there are interestingly some players who have better results with black than their ratings would indicate.

It may well be that at least part of any disparity between the two colors is a stylistic issue.  Some people may simply play better when starting out 'answering' the other player's move. Others may play better when they get to dictate the initial moves. 

 

Elubas

Those could be people who play reversed black systems as white. It's also indeed plausible that it's just about style. Still, if your statistics are equal or higher with black than white, I would at least look into it. It might just be style, but I would make sure it wasn't something else like a confusion about certain openings. Because if that is the case those problems could perhaps be ironed out, resulting in a small but easy improvement in results.

waffllemaster

I'll flip a quarter while waiting in line at a drive through.  Most I've gotten is 8 in a row of one side.  You should get 5 within a few minutes.