Game solved (After 122 years)

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vickalan
I was looking through some of the tidbits of information found from the Lomonosov endgame tablebases (here if you'd like to see the website) and found this bit of information:
A game played in 1890 (9th game of the World Championship match between Steinitz and Gunsberg, New York) was thoroughly analyzed and many concluded (even in books) that Gunsberg could have won by playing 73...Kd5.  More recent commentary says the same thing:
phpwU0SeJ.jpeg
For reference the game is here:
 (comments in the game at move 73 are from the Lomonosov website)
 
But recently, after 122 years, the tablebases have surely concluded that there was no sure way for Gunsberg to have won!
This conclusion was arrived by making use of the 7-piece tablebases, which I believe was generated by several years of work with supercomputers in Moscow!  So what does this mean? Here is my take:
 
1) If it took this long to solve one end-game problem, how many more years until the game of chess in its entirety is solved?
 
2) Are there any other supercomputers being used to solve these types of problems? The team in Moscow can't finish all this work by themselves!  If you are on a committee that decides supercomputer resource-allocation, please allow the supercomputers to spend more time playing chess!
 
3) There's many people (myself included) that are playing chess-variants, where the boards may be bigger, and piece movements are changed. How are we going to be able to answer all of the new questions and problems that come from these games?
 
Other comments and answers are welcome!happy.png 
dannyhume
Supercomputers are getting exponentially more powerful as time goes on, yet do you realize how many positions there are possible in chess?!? Hundreds, literally hundreds.
GmorrECPEC04

How do you post games like that?

vickalan
dannyhume wrote:
do you realize how many positions there are possible in chess?!? Hundreds, literally hundreds.

It's such a large number that it has its own name "the Shannon number" and is estimated to be in the general order of roughly (10)^43.

blueemu
GmorrECMS04 wrote:

How do you post games like that?

There's a little grey-and-white chessboard symbol in the message reply box. Click that symbol, then follow the directions. You can input a complete game (with comments and variations), or a position or problem. You'll find those options in the "Set-up" tab.

vickalan
GmorrECMS04 wrote:

How do you post games like that?

When you write your message hit the little chess board icon.  Then select "Load pgn", paste it, and hit enter. The total pgn for the position above is:

[Event "World Championship"]
[Site "New York"]
[Date "1890.11.18"]
[Round "9th game"]
[White "Steinitz"]
[Black "Gunsberg"]
[Result "1/2-1/2"]
[BlackElo "-"]
[ECO "?"]
[TimeControl "?"]
[WhiteElo "-"]
[SetUp "1"]
[FEN "8/8/6p1/R5K1/4k2P/8/p7/r7 w - - 0 73"]
73. Ra4+ Kf3
The last line is the one move in this summary, but normally includes more moves or an entire game. I believe the headings are optional, but if not included there will be no information posted about the game. Hope this helpshappy.png
solskytz

How do they base a "number of possibilities" figure on the AVERAGE length of a game, rather than on the greatest possible length of the game?

I remember that in chess, 30 captures and 96 pawn moves are possible for both players - for a total of 126 "game changing" events. 

Before the first one and between any two of these (but not after the last one, as only two kings would remain!), 74.5 moves can be played without a draw automatically occurring, if both parties still want to win. 

126*74.5 + 1 (let's say that the very last move is either mate or isn't, in which case we will have a draw) = 9388 moves. 

We shouldn't subtract 25 from this number, saying that at least after the one-before-last game changing event, at least one of the players will want a draw - because maybe that player is confident in his ability to draw anyway and doesn't mind if the game drags on. 

So the longest game possible is 9388 moves (each move is a two-ply).

Now let's say that because many of these positions involve few pieces and few possible moves, that we multiply not by 10^3 per two-ply, but only by 3.1*10^2 per two-ply - which implies a conservative average of about 22 possible moves per position - rather than the more customary 30 or 31. 

So we get 10 ^ (2.5 * 9388) or 10 ^ 23,470 possible chess games, and that's already a correct figure, I suppose. 

Of course, once you get to the endgame, there will be just tons and tons of duplicative positions between these games, as many games will reach the exact same ending - but in different ways, thus still making different games. 

GmorrECPEC04

I have a phone and I don't see it

BronsteinPawn

this post was too long so i didnt even read it completely, but i just wanted to post some non-sense.

BronsteinPawn

i think we should start by first asking you why did you use larger font size than the default.

Sqod
dannyhume wrote:
Supercomputers are getting exponentially more powerful as time goes on

Not true. In fact, many computer scientists and engineers are concerned because processing power increase is starting to slow, which is a sign that Moore's Law is reaching its limits. Whether some new technology will replace digital computers, or complement them, is unknown. 

BronsteinPawn

Computers cant think, and mathematics cant help with philosophy buds, so computers will never solve anything, humans are superior. Lol. 

BronsteinPawn

I think it would be easier to solve chess if we trapped all living GMs in a gulag or something and forced them to analyze chess with help of Stockfish

Adios_Mark_Ay_Vivid

A good numberphile episode on the number of games of chess. 10 to the 120 is likely a massive underestimation.

It is more likely 10 to the 10 to the 50 meaning 1 followed by 10 to the 50 zeroes,.

ArgoNavis

Yes, solving chess is the most useful thing those computers can do.

vickalan
musketeerchess wrote:

The interest in Chess Variants is for 2 reasons:

...

I also like it because it is much more difficult or impossible for people to cheat when playing on-line (until someone makes an engine for the new variant)happy.png

vickalan
Adios_Mark_Ay_Vivid wrote:

A good numberphile episode on the number of games of chess. 10 to the 120 is likely a massive underestimation.

It is more likely 10 to the 10 to the 50 meaning 1 followed by 10 to the 50 zeroes,.

Not serious, right? If so will you show the math (or source)?

vickalan
kingofshedinjas wrote:

Yes, solving chess is the most useful thing those computers can do.

LOL!!

dannyhume
Sqod wrote:
dannyhume wrote:
Supercomputers are getting exponentially more powerful as time goes on

Not true. In fact, many computer scientists and engineers are concerned because processing power increase is starting to slow, which is a sign that Moore's Law is reaching its limits. Whether some new technology will replace digital computers, or complement them, is unknown. 

 

Don't fall for the "fake" news sites... Pretty soon supercomputers will not only be exponentially more powerful, but will be thousands of times bigger.

JubilationTCornpone

And once we solve chess, just for a goof, God is going to say "No, guys, you have the rules wrong.  Black goes first, and queen can only move two, but she gets to jump like a knight."