Guy starts chess at age of 20, is there the possibility he will ever achieve GM?

Recap: Guy learns chess at 17, becomes top 25 player in the world.

There are plenty of late bloomer professional athletes. Bernard Hopkins learned boxing at age 17. Randy Couture didn't take up MMA until age 33. Ken Norton didn't take up boxing until age 20. Hakeem Olajuwon didn't take up basketball until age 15. There are plenty of lesser known players like Yvon Joseph who did not take up basketball until age 22 and later made it to the NBA (there are only about 3100 NBA players in history).

And there is this guy who took up golf at age 31 and is trying to become a pro golfer:

http://thedanplan.com

Even starting at 20 it certainly seems possible to eventually play IM or GM level chess. Given one has the inherent ability and puts in the necessary effort.

But to think about becoming an actual IM or GM, one might not want to underestimate the amount of time and money that has to be invested. Not just in study but tourney play. Ye Jiangchuan, the 17 year old starter to GM, might be a good example.

From chessgames.com, it looks like it took him 13 or so years to become a GM. Apparently with some sort of govt or non-govt sponsorship.

In 1980, three years after he learned the game, it looks like he participated in the World Under 26 Championships in Mexico City. I'm not sure what kind of results he got in the three years to get him into that tourney. Over the next few years, it looked like he also played in a couple of Olympiads and a World Team Championship.

Assuming he had well above average ability and also some support to develop and get into world class events within the first 3-8 years of learning the game, it still took him 13 years of top level international and regional play to get the GM title.

So I'd guess that, if someone started from 20, while playing IM/GM level chess is certainly possible, though maybe not likely, traveling the entire road for the IM/GM norms successfully, even with slightly favorable circumstances, might be an extreme longshot.

Then you have the question: is the investment, say over the next 10 years, worth it given the amounts needed and probability of success?    

I told myself I wasn't going to weigh in on this silly discussion that's plagued the forums God-knows-how-many-times. But in all this 5 page thread, there is one topic that has not been addressed. And that is ACCESS.

GMs do not come out of some isolated bubble where they have been training and studying for years and years, as some posters in this thread seem to have implied. Of course they have studied intensely, no question. But they emerge from years and years of grinding competition in world-class venues. To become a GM, you have to beat GMs, and they typically don't show up at the weekend Swiss at your local recreation hall. You have to go where they are competing, and that means air fares, hotel rooms, entry fees, meals, etc. FOR YEARS.

So unless you've already demonstrated a startling talent by the age of 20, this kind of pursuit starting at that age would seem to be the pinnacle of stupidity. Yes, a talented adult might even make master starting at 20, but then that title is possible by traveling to weekend tournaments within driving distance. Unless you're independently wealthy and independent in virtually all other ways, the real-world practical sacrifices that have to be made in order to follow the GM circuit are nearly impossible to overcome.

I can never understand why people of an average or decent rating (e.g. somewhere around where I am) often seem to ask these questions.

If you aim for incremental steps it doesn't matter what the theoretical possibility is for the maximum you can achieve, but until you achieve the next rung on the ladder it is irrelevant.  Most good chess players will never even become NM (if they live in a country in which it is a title).  Only IMs should be bothering with the question of whether GM is achievable or not.

I have heard that anything is possible over there in america. You have guys that become quarterbacks at the age of 40, called the famous armchair quarterbacks.

I think that title armchair GM should be open for everyone regardless of age.

yes

I live in San Francisco. About fifteen miles south on the coastal highway is Half Moon Bay, where the now famous big wave surf spot known as Mavericks is located.

The very strange thing about Mavericks is that although it was first ridden in 1975 by Jeff Clark, a high school student, no one would believe him, because everyone knew there were no big waves in California.

Fifteen years later a couple of Santa Cruz surfers rode Mavericks and finally people realized that there was indeed a California big wave that matched those in Hawaii.

A few years later some of the best Hawaiian big wave riders came to ride Mavericks. One of them, Mark Foo, showed up to surf jetlagged and drowned in the waves no one had believed in.

The moral of the story is a proper skepticism for certainty that's not well-grounded in facts.

And what I'm hearing from the naysayers is just "It can't be done because it hasn't been done. You don't know how hard it is. It's just not possible."

Pish.

bb_gum: Like I said earlier, records get broken and experts are proven wrong. Not all the time, but frequently enough.

I brought up Chigorin. The hand-waving is mostly on your side. "It's too hard!"

Here's an interesting case of a real life GM, Jonathan Hawkins, born in 1983 who learned chess as a child, but his ratings only took off later in his twenties when he marched steadily up to 2557 last month. He is now 32.

I'd like to know more about how strong he was in his teens. His FIDE record starts him at 2207 in Oct. 2006 when he was 23.

For fans of the endgame, Hawkins attributes his rise to IM and GM to intense endgame study.

So to the naysayers who say it's impossible for a 20 year-old novice to reach GM, could our novice reach IM?

How do you know?

Your first goal is Candidate Master 2200 FIDE, not Grandmaster. If you can achieve CM then go after FIDE Master, after this you will know if have the ability to go for IM or GM title. A 1800 FIDE is to be respected not 1800 online. What is your otb rating?

I do believe that a player who starts chess at age 20 can become a grandmaster.

Guess, my viewpoint on this is a minority viewpoint.

I would say a player who starts chess at age 20 and really likes the game and is learning it fast, and has the money for learning tools, and can devote 40 hours a week to learning chess,  may become a grandmaster in his life time.

My guess, about 1 chance in a 10,000.

Is it possible?  Sure....Is it likely?  probably not.

Hawkins is an interesting case. It appears he made both his IM and GM norms all without leaving GB. Three of the six from the British Championship which was interesting.

It could be that Britain sports a possible easier route to these titles if one has the ability. It looks as if there's a number of British IM's and GM's who meet each other a lot in these regional tourneys. 

I would think that if one can be competitve in that group, not drop games to the lower rateds that you'll need to play and have some good tournaments over time, it would likely produce at least one IM norm and probably more. 

So, I guess if you're starting out at 20 and want to be an IM or GM, maybe England is a place that'll give you better odds.  

I would probably say no, just do to brains' levels of thinking after you turn 25 years up.

Just play does it freaking matter

Probably not, and it has nothing to do with brain development.

Im 23 years old.. and i started a year and a half ago and im mid 1800s.

However... i also have grad school to get into, a career to make, clubbing with friends, picking up girls, etc...

Also considering that there is zero money in chess, i dont think ill even bother going for a NM title.

Dan Heisman does not count as a experienced coach.