How much of chess is luck?

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Nicator65
Richard_Hunter wrote:

"In chess context, heuristics is about probabilities. "

But probability is about luck, yes?

In real life, a casual detail (that ruins our plans) may be considered as luck as the one making a decision hardly has all the information. But in chess there are no hidden pieces nor squares, then a mistake can't be attributed to "luck".

In a way, is like saying that we can't solve a mathematics problem because we have bad luck. Truth is that, in most cases, is because we don't know how to, or we are not paying enough attention, or time is to short, and so on.

Furthermore, blaming "luck" is a sure recipe to not to improve in chess (and other areas too). But if you want to keep using the term, then consider that –in chess– we make our own "luck".

Richard_Hunter
Nicator65 wrote:
Richard_Hunter wrote:

"In chess context, heuristics is about probabilities. "

But probability is about luck, yes?

In real life, a casual detail (that ruins our plans) may be considered as luck as the one making a decision hardly has all the information. But in chess there are no hidden pieces nor squares, then a mistake can't be attributed to "luck".

In a way, is like saying that we can't solve a mathematics problem because we have bad luck. Truth is that, in most cases, is because we don't know how to, or we are not paying enough attention, or time is to short, and so on.

Furthermore, blaming "luck" is a sure recipe to not to improve in chess (and other areas too). But if you want to keep using the term, then consider that –in chess– we make our own "luck".

You need to get away from this idea of 'blaming luck'. Luck is also involved in winning. If that wasn't the case, Magnus Carlsen would win every game he played, but he doesn't: This is because he doesn't have absolute foresight of every move he plays and so he depends on a certain amount of luck that he wont get into a position that becomes unplayable for him.

lubricant

once again your ignoring the point and conjuring up some bullshit conclusion that just because you can't read the information in front of you it means luck is affecting your play.  each player is always responsible for the moves they make.  luck isn't doing shit for you.  Carlsen needs to depend on a certain amount of skill not to get outplayed.

Richard_Hunter

Congratulations, you got a swear word in. meh.png

Nicator65
Richard_Hunter wrote:
Nicator65 wrote:
Richard_Hunter wrote:

"In chess context, heuristics is about probabilities. "

But probability is about luck, yes?

In real life, a casual detail (that ruins our plans) may be considered as luck as the one making a decision hardly has all the information. But in chess there are no hidden pieces nor squares, then a mistake can't be attributed to "luck".

In a way, is like saying that we can't solve a mathematics problem because we have bad luck. Truth is that, in most cases, is because we don't know how to, or we are not paying enough attention, or time is to short, and so on.

Furthermore, blaming "luck" is a sure recipe to not to improve in chess (and other areas too). But if you want to keep using the term, then consider that –in chess– we make our own "luck".

You need to get away from this idea of 'blaming luck'. Luck is also involved in winning. If that wasn't the case, Magnus Carlsen would win every game he played, but he doesn't: This is because he doesn't have absolute foresight of every move he plays and so he depends on a certain amount of luck that he wont get into a position that becomes unplayable for him.

It seems you have your own definition of luck.

luck
lək/
noun
 
  1. 1.
    success or failure apparently brought by chance rather than through one's own actions.
    "it was just luck that the first kick went in"
    synonyms: successprosperity, good fortune, good luck
    "I wish you luck"

 

The "apparently" has its reason to be in the definition.

Richard_Hunter

In my view, luck and chance are synonymous with one another and if you're willing to admit chance into chess then you must be willing to admit luck.

glamdring27

So when, in a given chess position, my opponent has a forced mate and he misses it which part of him missing it is success 'through my own actions'?

ElvisMyBoy

i feel lucky sometimes that a move i played helps defending against my opponents threats several moves later which i didnt intent for when i played it.

Nicator65
Richard_Hunter wrote:

In my view, luck and chance are synonymous with one another and if you're willing to admit chance into chess then you must be willing to admit luck.

Curiously, I never wrote "chance". Also, it may be difficult for others to follow your ideas if you use "in my view" above the dictionary.

Anyways, you asked and you got some answers and explanations. Then, in everyday people use "luck" because they can't obtain all the info before making a sound decision. But (in that regard) chess is more like mathematics: No such thing as luck.

Finally, sometimes players go beyond what they can (in good probability) calculate and evaluate, because the problems they're presenting to the rival may be more difficult to solve within the constraints of a live game. Then it's speculation.

DiogenesDue
btickler wrote:
Richard_Hunter wrote:

Posters shouldn't say racist things about other posters.

Please clarify how anything I said was racist.  Note before you begin that saying that you or others are Scottish when you identify yourself as such is not racist, nor is calling someone "annoying" in any way racist.

Ok, go for it, explain your logic. 

That's  what I thought.

Every time you get caught in a BS statement you can't back up, you just switch to other posters/replies.  There's a word for that.

DiogenesDue
Richard_Hunter wrote:
Farm_Hand wrote:

Probability is about incomplete information.

And when you have incomplete information you need to depend on luck, yes?

No.  That's a ridiculous statement.  People makes decisions every day without 'relying' on luck or chance (since you've now admitted you equate luck with random chance).

DiogenesDue
Richard_Hunter wrote:
drmrboss wrote:
Oura-1 wrote:

I think zero percent of chess is luck.

There are still luck among players. The stronger the players, the effect of luck is less. The weaker the players, the effect of luck is more.

 

For example, in recent cccc, competition, Stockfish encountered in stage 2, 12 games vs Leela. In one game SF knew that he was losing but Leela played terrible move and the game ended as draw. Statistically 8% of SF performance depend on luck.

 

In stage 3, SF vs Houdini played 50 games. SF played terrible moves in one game but Houdini saw the killer moves and SF was dead. So luck was 2% in those games.

 

Among other opponents, SF did not lose a single game for >100 games and the weak engines cant even make a chance to punish.

 

Luck is still there in today technology as chess is not solved yet. Either one or both opponents may still make mistakes but one opponent must be considerably strong enough to see that luck(opportunity).

Engines are the ultimate proof that luck plays a role in Chess.

With all due respect to drmrboss, that is just a definition problem.  Leela making a bad move might be surprising, but it is categorically not bad luck.  That move was arrived at by exact criteria and Leelas past play learnings, nothing else.  What you could claim is that Leelas very first games where it only was given the rules and had to start learning from nothing were 'luck', but even then, it's not really luck, I'm sure Leela used a set criteria to determine which moves to try in some order...and however arbitrary, that's not luck, unless there is actually a call to a legitimately seeded random number generator, and I find that option rather unlikely for a developer to take.

Sombro56

Hmm... I would say about 13% luck and 83% skill. Chess is all about skill and how many different outcomes of moves that you can figure out. In conclusion, very little about playing chess is luck.

huss77
It’s all about intelligence
Sombro56

Exactly huss77

glamdring27

You must have a lot of 'skill' if you have any control at all over your opponent's moves in the fixed position you give them after each of your own moves.

Richard_Hunter
Nicator65 wrote:
Richard_Hunter wrote:

In my view, luck and chance are synonymous with one another and if you're willing to admit chance into chess then you must be willing to admit luck.

Curiously, I never wrote "chance". Also, it may be difficult for others to follow your ideas if you use "in my view" above the dictionary.

Anyways, you asked and you got some answers and explanations. Then, in everyday people use "luck" because they can't obtain all the info before making a sound decision. But (in that regard) chess is more like mathematics: No such thing as luck.

Finally, sometimes players go beyond what they can (in good probability) calculate and evaluate, because the problems they're presenting to the rival may be more difficult to solve within the constraints of a live game. Then it's speculation.

Chess isn't Math though: It's a sport, and so, like all sports, it has a degree of luck in it. Whether you use words like 'chance', 'heuristics', or 'speculation', it all equates to luck in the end.

Richard_Hunter
Sombro56 wrote:

Hmm... I would say about 13% luck and 83% skill. Chess is all about skill and how many different outcomes of moves that you can figure out. In conclusion, very little about playing chess is luck.

I pretty much agree.

JamesAgadir
Sombro56 a écrit :

Hmm... I would say about 13% luck and 83% skill. Chess is all about skill and how many different outcomes of moves that you can figure out. In conclusion, very little about playing chess is luck.

What about the other 4% 13+83=96

Unicyclist
Richard_Hunter wrote:
Sombro56 wrote:

Hmm... I would say about 13% luck and 83% skill. Chess is all about skill and how many different outcomes of moves that you can figure out. In conclusion, very little about playing chess is luck.

I pretty much agree.

This guy literally says "chess is all about skill" and you have built all of your arguments so far around chess being far more luck-based than most think.

 

Why don't you take a minute to actually type out your final stance?