Turned out to be "The Perfect Storm". One GM is performing badly, another worse than that. There is a guaranteed GM norm entering the ninth round, with a possibility of three players earning GM norms.
http://saintlouischessclub.org/2012-saint-louis-invitational
Ninth round pairings:
IM Arnold, Marc T with 5.5 points vs. IM Molner, Mackenzie 5.0
One of the above will have a norm after their game.
GM Finegold, Benjamin 2.5 points vs. IM Sevillano, Enrico 5.0
IM Brooks, Michael A 2.5 points vs. IM Yang, Darwin 5.0
Closed 10 player tournament (9 games):
- Open tournaments are too unpredictable. Sometimes not having enough titled players to play against and sometimes not having enough foreign federations. Even so a player may not be matched against the right mix of opponents.
- Probably applies to North America much more than Europe where titled player quota and foreign federation quota is not a problem.
- An open tournament such as Cappelle-La-Grande regularly generates norms.
http://www.fide.com/fide/handbook.html?id=58&view=article
Normal foreign federation requirements:
1.43- At least two federations other than that of the title applicant must be included ...
1.44a A maximum of 3/5 of the opponents may come from the applicant’s federation and a maximum of 2/3 of the opponents from one federation.
1.45a At least 50% of the opponents shall be title-holders ... excluding CM and WCM...
Ideal mix:
3 foreign GMs (most expensive)
7 local IMs (each IM would play only 6 of their 9 games against another local to satisfy the maximum 2/3 ratio.)
Practical mix:
St. Louis Invitational: http://www.chessdom.com/grandmaster-norm-tourney-begins-in-saint-louis/
1 GM Margvelashvili Giorgi GEO 2547
2 GM Moradiabadi Elshan IRI 2542
3 GM Finegold Benjamin USA 2505
4 IM Sevillano Enrico USA 2502
5 IM Arnold Marc T USA 2502
6 IM Gerzhoy Leonid CAN 2489
7 IM Molner Mackenzie USA 2465
8 IM Brooks Michael A USA 2456
9 IM Yang Darwin USA 2448
10 IM Young Angelo PHI 2321
3 GMs: 2 foreign GMs and the house GM.
7 IMs: 2 foreign IMs and 5 local IMs.
A total of four foreign players to be on the safe side. There would be trouble if only three and one cancels late. Might be impossible to replace in time.
Gamesmanship:
Based on 1.45a you might think that the foreign IMs could be replaced by any foreign low-raters but that would make it harder to get the minimum TPR (2600) and possibly even the minimum average opponent rating (2380).
"Last year’s GM norm tournament required a score of 6.5/9 and produced no norms, but this year’s event is stronger, with an average FIDE rating of 2478, and will require a score of 6/9 to achieve a GM norm."
Assuming the mandatory win against IM Young Angelo PHI 2321 the local IMs need 5 of 8. Not a slight against IM Young. I am sure he knows he is a target. I see at this point he is 1/1 and the other foreign, much higher rated IM is behind the 8-ball, now needing 6 of 8 for a norm.
Double Gamesmanship:
Obviously lower ratings are accounted for by the norm hunter needing a higher score. But is there a benefit to a low rated foreign GM. Say rated less than 2500?
Norm Calculator:
Provided by chess.com member boljen http://skaktal.dk/en/norm.php