Is there such thing as "luck" in chess?

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Avatar of Optimissed
Ziryab wrote:
Optimissed wrote:
Optimissed wrote:

You have three chess books on the table and before an important match you randomly pick up one and start reading it and you concentrate on a particular variation and learn it by heart in 30 or 40 minutes or whatever. Your opponent by chance plays that variation and due only to having read the book, you know that he's blundered and there's a difficult to spot continuation which wins for you. That's happened to me. Exactly that. I won a lot of tournaments.

No-one, surely, can argue that such a scenario doesn't involve luck.

 

I studied 50 GM games that followed a move order nuance against the Queen's Indian Defense as preparation for one specific opponent. I wanted to prevent 7...Ne4, so delayed castling by first securing e4. Most of these games were long battles, but there was an inspirational miniature that could guide me if my opponent made one of six possible seventh moves. He played it.

That was lucky. But preparation played a big impact.

 

I've kept clear of the Queen's Indian. At first it was because I believed people who were saying that the QID was easier to play, for both sides, than the Nimzo. I tended to find that on average I was doing well against the Nimzo and I was exploring the Reshevsky and also normal main lines. I eventually decided to stick with the delayed Samisch approach. In the past two years I've considered changing to the QID as white but that involves a lot of difficulties. Firstly, I would now think that QID is more difficult and harder to play well by white than the Nimzo, in which white's best approach is usually a direct, central and kingside attack. Also 3. Nf3 incites more people to play the Modern Benoni, which was fine while I actively played that as black but now I'm scared of it again. I don't know the modern theory for it. So it's "persevere with the Nimzo" and I've been trying out 4. f3 but have discovered that 4. f3 is being hyped and probably isn't half as good as it's hyped to be. I'm looking forward to a current game finishing, where I played 4. f3, so I can analyse it with computer aid to determine where to go from here.

In general, I prefer to cut down the element of luck as much as I can, when playing the white pieces; and to enhance it with black: hence I've been playing the O'Kelly Sicilian for 20 years, where, occasionally, you meet someone who isn't distracted by the hype over not playing 3. d4 and plays it, knowing how to play positionally as white, with no fast attacks. But in general, a high degree of chaos and luck seems more acceptable with the black pieces than with white. That's a different kind of luck, although in general, luck involves playing a line that is difficult and, by chance, your opponent hasn't studied it.

 

Avatar of Optimissed
ThePlayzPaidOff wrote:
Optimissed wrote:

Some people don't listen to correct arguments and they think they know better. Again, they will be making their own luck. They may prosper, despite their stupidity.

If this is in reply to me this is nonsensical, and doesn't contribute as a retort. 
 Define what it means to "make their own luck", because if it is what I think it means then that doesn't make sense. On that same note you would have to define a "correct" argument. That pair of words is very strange.

No, it wasn't your comment that prompted mine: it was something else. I wasn't aiming that remark at you and I apologise to you if you thought I did. I did think you probably haven't considered the scenarios where luck plays a part.

It was more of a general remark. You've probably heard of "magical thinking", which some people deride and decry. On the other hand, I embrace it. I want to think magically all the time.

Perhaps a "correct argument" is one that ought to be successful if the other person is knowledgeable and able to understand the logical element?

Avatar of Optimissed

I don't understand why "is chess a draw with best play by both sides" is debated!

Avatar of Ziryab

For players below 1000 on this site and 1800 on Lichess, chess is entirely a game of luck.

https://www.chess.com/forum/view/game-analysis/how-beginners-play

 

Avatar of DrSpudnik
GhostNight wrote:

I had just won a tough game with a very worthy opponent and felt quite proud of my accomplishment, only to have another player show me where my opponent missed a move that would have stopped my winning game, did that take the wind out of my sails, because the win alone is not the important part but but how you "got it"!

By hook or by crook, a win is a win. Take them while you can.

Avatar of Ziryab
CooloutAC wrote:
Optimissed wrote:

I don't understand why "is chess a draw with best play by both sides" is debated!

who debates that?  Didn't Fischer himself literally say Chess is all memory and theory prep?  In your opinion someone forgetting his line means you got lucky, but thats just your opinion.    Because thats on the person and not the game.  Again,   I don't understand the need to even debate this.  

 

   The absolute fact is that chess does not have luck built into the game.  For example its not a game where you are rolling the dice or playing poker with a flop or dealt random cares,  or pulling a casino slot handle.   

 

One or two people have seen the proposition as debatable. https://www.chess.com/forum/view/general/true-or-false-chess-is-a-draw-with-best-play-from-both-sides

 

Your casino metaphor is a pretty apt description of the games I’ve been watching the past few weeks. Among low rated players, chess is rolling dice. In one game, a player completely outplayed an opponent who seemed to have no clue. But after chasing the queen for several moves, let three pass by when it could have been captured through an elementary fork. Later, this same player missed a mate in one and then resigned when the opponent was about to lose on time.

I saw nothing I could identify as skill on either side.

Avatar of Ziryab
CooloutAC wrote:
Ziryab wrote:

For players below 1000 on this site and 1800 on Lichess, chess is entirely a game of luck.

https://www.chess.com/forum/view/game-analysis/how-beginners-play

 

1800 on lichess lmao.    I know people 1900 on lichess that are 1800 blitz fide rating.    I think maybe part of the reason lichess inflates the initial ratings is to ensure competitive matches up at the beginner level.  Since that clearly doesn't happen on chess.com.  But once you get to intermediate and expert its not much different.

 

I’ve played hundreds of 1800s in 10 0 games on Lichess. 80% play like beginners.

Avatar of Optimissed
CooloutAC wrote:
Optimissed wrote:

I don't understand why "is chess a draw with best play by both sides" is debated!

who debates that?  Didn't Fischer himself literally say Chess is all memory and theory prep?  In your opinion someone forgetting his line means you got lucky, but thats just your opinion.  It isn't luck that my opinions are often correct. It might help you if you didn't misrepresent my opinion, since that doesn't just fool other people but it also fools yourself.

Because thats on the person and not the game.  Again,   I don't understand the need to even debate this.  I still feel people either need an excuse for losing or an excuse to not take chess seriously as a sport.   The absolute fact is that chess does not have luck built into the game. Your absolute fact isn't everybody's!

For example its not a game where you are rolling the dice or playing poker with a flop or dealt random cares,  or pulling a casino slot handle.   In those games mental or physical skill cannot  100%  predetermine the results of those actions out of human control.  I can't even believe I'm having this conversation and it absolutely speaks alterior motives.  You are literally coming up with an excuse not to respect the sport which encourages disrespect.  I actually find it apalling. Oh what a pity. What about all the others who are agreeing with me and with whom I'm agreeing?

 

Avatar of Optimissed

It's difficult to follow your posts to me and to Ziryab.

Avatar of blueemu

Haven't read much of the thread.

Of course there's luck in chess. In a Swiss system tournament, you have little control over which opponent you get paired against, or whether you have White or Black against your most dangerous opponents. These things are determined by the number of players entering the tournament, and by the distribution of their ratings and early-round results... random factors that you have no control over.

Luck, in other words.

Avatar of Ziryab
CooloutAC wrote:

  

3.  I personally can't stand this community.  Its full of alt accounts and rating manipulators.  

 

You can make this site better very easily. Leave.

Your cheating accusations are absurd in view of the quality of your play. https://www.chess.com/forum/view/game-analysis/how-beginners-play

 

Avatar of Ziryab
CooloutAC wrote:
 

You like everyone to leave the sport altogether,  

 

Of course. That's why I currently have about 100 elementary age students in my classes and clubs. That's why I ran a tournament for young players yesterday, and why I am running a longer one today.

I hope you keep your interest in chess. I would like it if you stop attacking people on this site and the site itself. I would like it if you could learn to recognize checkmate. You could contribute to this site. Why you choose negativity only you can answer.

Avatar of Ubik42
ugh. coolout toxic troll master of the strawman
Avatar of Ubik42
Ziryab beats the crap out of me, the most i would have had at any one time is about 30. And zero now because COVID.
Avatar of Ziryab
CooloutAC wrote:
Ziryab wrote:
CooloutAC wrote:

  

3.  I personally can't stand this community.  Its full of alt accounts and rating manipulators.  

 

You can make this site better very easily. Leave.

Your cheating accusations are absurd in view of the quality of your play. https://www.chess.com/forum/view/game-analysis/how-beginners-play

 

You like everyone to leave the sport altogether,  Thats why you constantly make demeaning marks about low rated players and blitz.   You know,  the majority of worldwide chess community>   My theory is,  because people like you want to feel like you are of superior intelligence for playing a game most of society "can't".   But you are lying to yourself buddy.  lmao

 

Listen, if you can. I've taught over one thousand young players to play chess. I discourage blitz when they are beginners because it cultivates bad habits. Fast play creates sloppiness. I know, I played tens of thousands of games that are utterly horrid.

When I'm talking about absolute beginners with zero board vision playing too much blitz instead of learning fundamental contacts, I'm not addressing the "majority". A percentile below 10 is a minority, just as a percentile above 90 is.



I'm actually offering help, but you're in Plato's Cave watching shadows.

Avatar of Ubik42
Coolout since you have picked fights with 2 now by my count who have brought lots of kids to the game while implying in various ways that we hate chess or blitz or or want to drive people away or whatever….. maybe the problem isn’t with us.

Maybe it’s you.
Avatar of Ubik42
How about instead you try coaching and get advice from an experienced coach like Ziryab.

If I return to coaching in the spring I will probably pick his brain a bit now that I know he is a more experienced coach.
Avatar of Ziryab

@CooloutAC

One thing you will never find a good teacher doing:

Taking advice from someone whose understanding of the subject is in the bottom 10%.

 

But again, you are missing the key point. I'm not against blitz. I recommend that players learn something about the game first. 

When I could not keep more than half of my shots in a seven inch circle at ten yards, I sought advice on the fundamentals and slowed down. After lots of slow practice, I kicked the rate of my firing back up, but 90% of the shots now land in a three inch circle at ten yards. I can learn to do better, so I continue to work on the fundamentals--trigger control, breathing, etc.

Good that you like blitz. By all means play it. Do try to spend some time on tactics training instead of accusing players as bad as you are of cheating. Buy a book on checkmate patterns and read it.

Renaud and Kahn, The Art of the Checkmate is excellent.

Avatar of x-3232926362
blueemu wrote:

Haven't read much of the thread.

Of course there's luck in chess. In a Swiss system tournament, you have little control over which opponent you get paired against, or whether you have White or Black against your most dangerous opponents. These things are determined by the number of players entering the tournament, and by the distribution of their ratings and early-round results... random factors that you have no control over.

Luck, in other words.

It is very true. Swiss and knock-out tournaments (or even round robin, but far less) involve luck. But it is not specific to chess. The same would hold for checkers tournaments, tennis tournaments, football, etc.

But as far as the outcome of one single game of chess is concerned, there's practically no luck involved.

Avatar of Ubik42
Hopeless or troll or both