Is there such thing as "luck" in chess?

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SymphonicKnight

For a human, the position of "no luck" doesn't seem to be held be either of you, does it... neither Diogenes nor Kotshmot?

playerafar
SymphonicKnight wrote:

Fascinating and powerful arguments from all of you. Excellent debate. Perhaps for a human skill is not sufficient to eliminate the blind elements from play, which would entail luck to lesser and lesser degrees as knowledge and vision increase. I will a story about Fischer, where it looked like he was losing at 12 ply, but at 13 ply the sacrifice made sense and he won! Had he made it more speculatively, not seeing the conclusion, he'd have been "lucky" to find the 13th move. Only God plays a perfect game, and certainly not Stockfish, and even a 42 ply calculation by Sesse can be outmaneuvered at 43 ply. One might say that the one calculating the 43 move win was not lucky, but failing to see the 44th move by player 1, e.g. Sesse may or may not be fortuitous. Lucky or unlucky? Neither, perhaps, and simply the less skilled? Any being of limited knowledge has horizons beyond which success or failure could be called lucky or unlucky. But isn't this all about the semantics and how one wishes to define luck? ;-) One could argue for absolute determinacy on some level, which I do not wish to do.

Hi SK !
The subject itself might have been already 'beat to death'.
But there are new arrivals to the forum.
Luck and chess and 'in' and skill and internal and external could each be whatever whoever wants them to be.
If I had to pick which term is the most 'loaded' I'd probably pick the word 'skill' ...
because of certain 'resonant sentences' that live in minds ...
in a vast array of circumstances far bigger than chess ...
like this:
'Hey that wasn't luck that was Skill !!'
or the reverse:
'That was Luck not Skill!'
------------------------------------
in other words - binary dichotomies get set up.
And then when those dichotomies are challenged -
two well known reactions occur ...
Cognitive Dissonance and its big younger brother Cognition Bias.
They're as old as the hills - thousands of times as old as the terms that describe them. And like so many things - they're everywhere.
-------------------------
'Hey that wasn't luck that was Skill !!'
or the reverse:
'That was Luck not Skill!'
-----------------------
Also as old as the Hills.
Challenge: No ! The Hills could be older than that ...
Try wolves coordinating for the kill of their prey ...
they can't talk but what are they trying to do?
They're trying to make it about skill not luck.
How do you know? (I didn't say I knew but are they trying to make it about Santa Claus?)
The issue: Thinking that skill and luck couldn't combine in the same situation.
Why couldn't they?
The wolves are where they should be - downwind of the prey and using the natural cover - working their way closer ...
How about the prey get lucky?
The wolves stumble on some birds feeding on something and there's a tremendous fuss - and the deer or whatever look in that direction and spot the threat and off they go.
-----------------------
student takes a math exam - he gets lucky because on the harder questions he happend to have studied some of them on his own ... passed.
another student who's actually better at math also studied on his own and more but what he studied didn't apply to the particularily hard questions asked - failed the exam.
Luck and skill aren't exclusive of each other.
They're not in separate universes.
I think almost everybody knows it ...
but people may tend to put things in boxes - its natural.
Sometimes the boxes are good and sometimes they're not.
-----------------------
What's the worst such boxing?
Its often pretty bad when people try to put science in a box ...
can cause a lot of trouble ...

Kotshmot

A small experiment with chatGPT on the relationship of luck and skill. Not surprisingly, the answer can totally vary in slightly different but compareable contexts. If it would agree with me, I could keep asking for more logical challenges in different context one after another. After multiple rounds it gave up apparently.

What I'm wondering is how many instances there are where one could fully convince it on an actually flawed concept? Could I fully convince it on the opposite argument? That would be funny.

HonestHufflepuff

*unfollows*

Kotshmot

No, I think bulletproof is just an independent term it uses to evaluate the strength of the conclusion. You can always ask it to evaluate its confidence on a logical verdict and it rarely reaches a 100% or "bulletproof" like it did here.

trey043210

Yes

playerafar
Kotshmot wrote:

A small experiment with chatGPT on the relationship of luck and skill. Not surprisingly, the answer can totally vary in slightly different but compareable contexts. If it would agree with me, I could keep asking for more logical challenges in different context one after another. After multiple rounds it gave up apparently.

What I'm wondering is how many instances there are where one could fully convince it on an actually flawed concept? Could I fully convince it on the opposite argument? That would be funny.

Hi !
Another experiment: pretend to the AI that one is a flat-earther.
In a polite way try to demand that the AI prove to you that the world is not flat or demand that the AI disprove flat earth. Or both.
Maybe do this with a VPN or Tor browser so that the AI doesn't blacklist your IP address.
See what replies you get.
Do the whole nine yards. The Full Monty. 
Including about the ice cliffs of Antarctica.
Have I tried that D.A. stuff? Not yet.
---------------------------
My AI time is invested in other ways.
When doing scripts the AI often indicates 'bash' at top left.
Got to stop it doing that.
It will often skip some of your questions and points unless you tell it 'please respond to all points and questions' at the bottom of each post to it.
You can get it to answer 'yes or no' only if you want.
Many people don't understand that the AI will be obedient to you on many many things.

Kotshmot
ibrust777 wrote:

Lol, its conclusion is exactly the argument being made against Dio by multiple people.
Okay, I take back everything bad I ever said about chatGPT. It's a genius of unprecedented magnitude.

You can make it test a logical proof quite well. If you ask it a question once, it usually just refers to a source without testing the logic. You can keep challenging it until comes to a conclusion, that is probably accurate after multiple rounds of questions and arguments. You can even ask if it's a 100% confident conclusion or not. But that's enough of AI for now - hopefully this image wont take too much space.

GeorgeNC1
Maybe
playerafar
ibrust777 wrote:

Wow chatGPT is the ultimate troll of obstinate debaters.

Translation: ib has no counter-argument.
Neither does the guy who obsesses about IQ scores and complains about AI and then nasally talks about it and then starts going to it himself.

playerafar
ibrust777 wrote:

You should get a life. I mean really, get a life.

Idea not attempted instruction:
Follow your own advice as you talk about yourself.
It seems that Kotshmot knows how to use AI better than you ...
certainly he posts better than you and the Guy - but so do a lot of people ...
but its kind of embarassing to you - a Dev person - you displaying your poor perception of AI and its potentials.
In the meantime - the Guy complained bitterly in another forum about 'future AI discussion' while he chooses to talk about AI here.

AGC-Gambit_YT

Guys stop writing essays to correct each other, a sentence or two will do!

playerafar

Somebody else trying to give instructions.
Does he know that he has a scroll button? What it does?
On PCs its a wheel on the mouse.
Phones have touch screens - its not hard to scroll.

AGC-Gambit_YT

It's not hard to not write essays to correct each other.

playerafar

And its easy to post around posts trying to give people instructions.
And such instructions can even encourage people to do the Opposite of what is trying to be imposed!
They do.
happy

playerafar

Earlier we had somebody say he's being 'too honest' ... (an indirect confession)
and he talked about 'epistemological' and 'ontological' in his usual nasal tones.
here's an AI reply about those:
--------------------------------------
"
Certainly! Here’s a breakdown of the etymology for each term:
Epistemological: Epistemology comes from the Greek epistēmē (ἐπιστήμη), meaning "knowledge" or "science," and logos (λόγος), meaning "study" or "discourse."
So, epistemology literally means "the study of knowledge."
The term "epistemological" is the adjectival form, referring to things related to or concerning the study of knowledge.
Ontological: Ontology comes from the Greek ontos (ὄντος), meaning "being" or "existence," and logos (λόγος), meaning "study" or "discourse."
So, ontology literally means "the study of being."
Ontological is the adjectival form, referring to things related to the nature of existence or being."
------------------------------
Now are those words and what they refer to of the slightest use in discussions about 'luck in chess'?
Well they might be.
But would those words be appropriate when its considered that they're not in common usage and one could connect better with phrases that do the job better including with teenagers and with people for whom english is not first language?
---------------------
Would 'the study of knowledge' and 'the study of being' be helpful in a discussion about whether there's 'luck in chess'?
Maybe. More likely if the phrases are used instead of the buzzwords.
Has the subject of 'luck in chess' already been 'beat to death' here?
Luck and skill don't exist in 'separate universes'.
Or boxes. 
Do we need 'study of being' or 'study of knowledge' to know that they both exist?
No.
But what about answering questions about whether they're 'separate' or not?
Or 'mutually exclusive'?
They're not. You can have luck and skill in the same situations.
That's very obvious in poker.
But it happens constantly in contests with unknown outcomes.
Chess is no exception.
--------------------------
Why would people prefer luck and skill to be in 'separate boxes'?
Many causes. Including just organization of words and semantics.
But higher life forms didn't evolve on earth by depending on luck!
Is another cause.
Even though they're very subject to luck good or bad.

SymphonicKnight

I'd rather call it blessing than luck, but luck appears to apply. Isn't there agreement about this when all the subterfuge is removed? Is there really randomness? Is there really skill? Nobody has figured out all possibilities, and everyone has a limit to their logic, extensive as it may be. Both reasons are valid.

playerafar
SymphonicKnight wrote:

I'd rather call it blessing than luck, but luck appears to apply. Isn't there agreement about this when all the subterfuge is removed? Is there really randomness? Is there really skill? Nobody has figured out all possibilities, and everyone has a limit to their logic, extensive as it may be. Both reasons are valid.

"Is there really randomness?"
Yes.
"Is there really skill?"
Yes.
They're both evident and real. Not a lot of figuring to do.
But not real in the way oceans and rocks are ...
randomness refers to physical events and skill refers to aspects of human behaviour although one could argue that some other life forms are 'skillful'.
-----------------------
'limit to their logic?'
Well many things just aren't known.
Can you be logical about the details of an unknown thing when you haven't got those details and little or no 'data'?
Yes. One can admit one doesn't know. Logical enough.
But it usually doesn't end there. 
And such admission is substituted for by a very loaded word. 'belief' ...
Illogic moves in too.

c124875

Yes, you can get lucky in chess. I was once in a completely losing position and my opponent ask for a draw.

But you don't have to listen to those who say you were just lucky. It's up to you to think "am I actually that good?". If you think you're better than that person then why not (why you're not better)

playerafar
c124875 wrote:

Yes, you can get lucky in chess. I was once in a completely losing position and my opponent ask for a draw.

But you don't have to listen to those who say you were just lucky. It's up to you to think "am I actually that good?". If you think you're better than that person then why not (why you're not better)

Opponents might even resign when they're actually winning.
They don't realize. Resign is a ''move'.
So when you're counting available moves in a position - then if you want you can add two more. 'Resign' and 'offer draw'.
How about 'call flag'? Is that a 'move'? Why not?
-----------------------
In a park blitz game a player was checkmated.
he then moved and pressed his clock.
'Illegal move! You moved while in check but your move didn't get you out of check! You lose!'
The mated plus 'illegal move' person was 'unmoved'. Pun intended.
He claimed the checkmate wasn't called and therefore he should win.
Yes I actually saw that happen.
'
Idea: just accept that luck and skill both exist - so very often in the same contextes too.
Problem with that: Solves everything - no more 'argument'.
Illogic and unreality and fiction have more pizazz ...
happy