Is there such thing as "luck" in chess?

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LeeEuler
Again,  look up the definition of luck and stop arguing about a word you can't even define yourself.

You are not understanding the definition of luck, which I have as something akin to "success or failure apparently brought by chance rather than through one's own actions".

Just because a person performs an action (flips a coin, spins a wheel, chooses a card, moves a piece, etc.), and gets a result from that action (lands head, hits red, Ace of Diamonds, e4, etc.), does not mean that we label the success or failure associated with the action as directly and exclusively attributable to said actions. 

We can only determine one's relative competency/skill through multiple trials, since there is no way to separate randomness from the actual selection of the move itself.  You cannot, after a move has already been made, say it was a result of skill anymore than you could claim, after Monty Hall's proverbial door has already been opened to reveal a car, that the person exhibited skill in their selection. The naive, baseline assumption is that any move in any position has an equal probability of being selected. 

That is why for example a 900 rated player who gets an accuracy score of 99% in a single game is not immediately banned by chess.com's cheat detection. They recognize that said person did not suddenly assume engine strength, but just got lucky. Their skill did not change. 

LeeEuler

You are the one who claims consistency is not a measurement of skill,

Here you go again, you're making up things I said to argue against rather than argue against what I actually said (see an abbreviated list in Post #847). Show me the quote, and give the post number, where I ever said consistency is not a measure of skill.

If you are unable to provide the quote and the post number, I will accept your apology for your consistent lying, but request that in the future, you actually quote my words with the post number when addressing my claims, since it seems to be a consistent problem with you.

 by claiming its [consistency] not what separates the level of skill  from an amateur from a pro.   

I have already shown that there are pros who are inconsistent, and amateurs who are consistent (consistently bad). Ergo, consistency is not what separates the level of skill from pro to amateur. That would be either some measure of mean performance, or some measure of peak performance.

You are still treating chess as if it is a solo game and not a competitive sport,  and this partly where your flawed logic is rooted.

You consistently bring up sports, when that has nothing to do with what we are talking about, and when I have already linked numerous articles showing how luck is an accepted part in all other sports. For example: https://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2015/8/19/9175179/luck-plays-an-undeniable-role-in-baseball-and-it-has-a-place

Here you conveniently omit the rest of the definition I bolded for you throughout this thread you did not disagree with. You wait till now to pretend otherwise lol.

I have already said I will accept any reasonable definition, and have no clue what you are referencing with your definition. I pulled mine directly from Google. If yours is reasonable, I will accept it.

 

LeeEuler
CooloutAC wrote:
LeeEuler wrote:

You are the one who claims consistency is not a measurement of skill,

Here you go again, you're making up things I said to argue against rather than argue against what I actually said (see an abbreviated list in Post #847). Show me the quote, and give the post number, where I ever said consistency is not a measure of skill.

If you are unable to provide the quote and the post number, I will accept your apology for your consistent lying, but request that in the future, you actually quote my words with the post number when addressing my claims, since it seems to be a consistent problem with you.

 by claiming its [consistency] not what separates the level of skill  from an amateur from a pro.   

I have already shown that there are pros who are inconsistent, and amateurs who are consistent (consistently bad). Ergo, consistency is not what separates the level of skill from pro to amateur. That would be either some measure of mean performance, or some measure of peak performance.

You are still treating chess as if it is a solo game and not a competitive sport,  and this partly where your flawed logic is rooted.

You consistently bring up sports, when that has nothing to do with what we are talking about, and when I have already linked numerous articles showing how luck is an accepted part in all other sports. For example: https://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2015/8/19/9175179/luck-plays-an-undeniable-role-in-baseball-and-it-has-a-place

Here you conveniently omit the rest of the definition I bolded for you throughout this thread you did not disagree with. You wait till now to pretend otherwise lol.

I have already said I will accept any reasonable definition, and have no clue what you are referencing with your definition. I pulled mine directly from Google. If yours is reasonable, I will accept it.

 



Think about what you are saying.  if pros are "inconsistent",  which imo would not make them pros,   then how can consistency be a measurement of skill?    Again you are a walking contradiction.   

And how can you say sports have nothing to do with what we are talking about?  here you are confirming my constant accusations that you don't treat chess like a sport,  even though you have denied it.  lol  Tell me again that you played "high level baseball" as if that matters....

So after dozens of posts,  where i put the definition in big bold letters repeatedly over and over and dared you to claim a different definition.   you now claim its not reasonable?    So my definition of skill verse luck  as sucess or failure based on random chance rather then ones own actions,  or being able to increase ones chance of success with practice or knowledge,  is unreasonable?   LOL  how convenient for you bud.  Is this not the standard definitions?   How convenient for you to change them.

But lets be honest here,  you even contradict the first part of the definition you are still saying you agree with you.   Because google defined luck as without human action yet everything you mention to prove luck is with human action!  Again,  you're a walking contradiction.

As I see you have not given the quote or post number, I accept your apology for making up things to argue against.

1) "So my definition of skill verse luck [i]s 'sucess or failure based on random chance rather then ones own actions, or being able to increase ones chance of success with practice or knowledge', is unreasonable? LOL how convenient for you bud. Is this not the standard definitions? How convenient for you to change them."

Oh! Wow! Okay, I had no idea that you were freely admitting that you took the definition I used from google, and added a whole sentence at the end of the definition based on what you felt like the definition should be. Yes, taking a dictionary definition and then adding a whole clause or sentence at the end of it is unreasonable (unless you have a source that is in agreement with the definition you pulled from thin air?) No, the definition you provided is not the standard definition. That would be exactly what I pulled from Google: "success or failure apparently brought by chance rather than through one's own actions."

 

2) "if pros are "inconsistent",  which imo would not make them pros,   then how can consistency be a measurement of skill?" 

Please tell me I not arguing with someone this dense... If a player plays in half his tournaments at a 2900 level, winning many major tournaments, and the other half at a 2500 level, he is inconsistent and yet still an amazing player. That kind of player is also preferable to the person who plays all his tournaments in a range of 2675-2725 and just comes in 5th all the time. Or more obviously, the person who always plays at an 1100 level. 

 

3) "Tell me again that you played "high level baseball" as if that matters...."

I only brought this up when you falsely said I had no knowledge of competitive sports. I agree it has nothing to do with the question, which is why, as I have said all along, you bringing up competitive sports does not matter/is irrelevant. Because all sports accept luck as a part of the game. For example: https://sabr.org/journal/article/calculating-skill-and-luck-in-major-league-baseball/

 

4) "But lets be honest here,  you even contradict the first part of the definition you are still saying you agree with you.   Because google defined luck as without human action yet everything you mention to prove luck is with human action!"

It is like you just read something, make up what you want it to say, and then argue against that. I gave explicit examples of things that are a result of human action--the rolling of a dice, the flipping of a coin, the selection of a card-- that we universally identity as luck. Or are you saying you don't believe the flip of a coin, roll of a dice, etc. is a function of luck?

LeeEuler
CooloutAC wrote:
LeeEuler wrote:
CooloutAC wrote:
LeeEuler wrote:

You are the one who claims consistency is not a measurement of skill,

Here you go again, you're making up things I said to argue against rather than argue against what I actually said (see an abbreviated list in Post #847). Show me the quote, and give the post number, where I ever said consistency is not a measure of skill.

If you are unable to provide the quote and the post number, I will accept your apology for your consistent lying, but request that in the future, you actually quote my words with the post number when addressing my claims, since it seems to be a consistent problem with you.

 by claiming its [consistency] not what separates the level of skill  from an amateur from a pro.   

I have already shown that there are pros who are inconsistent, and amateurs who are consistent (consistently bad). Ergo, consistency is not what separates the level of skill from pro to amateur. That would be either some measure of mean performance, or some measure of peak performance.

You are still treating chess as if it is a solo game and not a competitive sport,  and this partly where your flawed logic is rooted.

You consistently bring up sports, when that has nothing to do with what we are talking about, and when I have already linked numerous articles showing how luck is an accepted part in all other sports. For example: https://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2015/8/19/9175179/luck-plays-an-undeniable-role-in-baseball-and-it-has-a-place

Here you conveniently omit the rest of the definition I bolded for you throughout this thread you did not disagree with. You wait till now to pretend otherwise lol.

I have already said I will accept any reasonable definition, and have no clue what you are referencing with your definition. I pulled mine directly from Google. If yours is reasonable, I will accept it.

 



Think about what you are saying.  if pros are "inconsistent",  which imo would not make them pros,   then how can consistency be a measurement of skill?    Again you are a walking contradiction.   

And how can you say sports have nothing to do with what we are talking about?  here you are confirming my constant accusations that you don't treat chess like a sport,  even though you have denied it.  lol  Tell me again that you played "high level baseball" as if that matters....

So after dozens of posts,  where i put the definition in big bold letters repeatedly over and over and dared you to claim a different definition.   you now claim its not reasonable?    So my definition of skill verse luck  as sucess or failure based on random chance rather then ones own actions,  or being able to increase ones chance of success with practice or knowledge,  is unreasonable?   LOL  how convenient for you bud.  Is this not the standard definitions?   How convenient for you to change them.

But lets be honest here,  you even contradict the first part of the definition you are still saying you agree with you.   Because google defined luck as without human action yet everything you mention to prove luck is with human action!  Again,  you're a walking contradiction.

As I see you have not given the quote or post number, I accept your apology for making up things to argue against.

1) "So my definition of skill verse luck [i]s 'sucess or failure based on random chance rather then ones own actions, or being able to increase ones chance of success with practice or knowledge', is unreasonable? LOL how convenient for you bud. Is this not the standard definitions? How convenient for you to change them."

Oh! Wow! Okay, I had no idea that you were freely admitting that you took the definition I used from google, and added a whole sentence at the end of the definition based on what you felt like the definition should be. Yes, taking a dictionary definition and then adding a whole clause or sentence at the end of it is unreasonable (unless you have a source that is in agreement with the definition you pulled from thin air?) No, the definition you provided is not the standard definition. That would be exactly what I pulled from Google: "success or failure apparently brought by chance rather than through one's own actions."

 

2) "if pros are "inconsistent",  which imo would not make them pros,   then how can consistency be a measurement of skill?" 

Please tell me I not arguing with someone this dense... If a player plays in half his tournaments at a 2900 level, winning many major tournaments, and the other half at a 2500 level, he is inconsistent and yet still an amazing player. That kind of player is also preferable to the person who plays all his tournaments in a range of 2675-2725 and just comes in 5th all the time. Or more obviously, the person who always plays at an 1100 level. 

 

3) "Tell me again that you played "high level baseball" as if that matters...."

I only brought this up when you falsely said I had no knowledge of competitive sports. I agree it has nothing to do with the question, which is why, as I have said all along, you bringing up competitive sports does not matter/is irrelevant. Because all sports accept luck as a part of the game. For example: https://sabr.org/journal/article/calculating-skill-and-luck-in-major-league-baseball/

 

4) "But lets be honest here,  you even contradict the first part of the definition you are still saying you agree with you.   Because google defined luck as without human action yet everything you mention to prove luck is with human action!"

It is like you just read something, make up what you want it to say, and then argue against that. I gave explicit examples of things that are a result of human action--the rolling of a dice, the flipping of a coin, the selection of a card-- that we universally identity as luck. Or are you saying you don't believe the flip of a coin, roll of a dice, etc. is a function of luck?

 

I'm not here to argue for the sake of it,  because you don't matter.  As long as you now agree with my point there is no need to rehash why you originally did not.

There is no "now agreeing" or "originally did not". You made up points to argue against when I never said them, as you have admitted to.

 

1)  So i'm to believe you never read my definitions even though I put it bold and repeated it throughout the thread in post after post? And so I guess you were not being honest when you stated the definition must be reasonable, and what you should have said is the definition should only be repeated word for word in google. 

No, reasonable does not mean "anything that coolout wants something to mean". Google, dictionary.com, Oxford, MW, etc. that is reasonable. An unbiased source. Much like the above, you are making up something, in this case the very definition of a word, and arguing against it. I saw your repetitions but truly did not think someone would be capable of thinking that the definition that they pulled out of thin air is to be taken as axiomatic/definitional. 

So lets just repeat this for everyone.   luck vs skill meaning success or failure due to random chance and not ones actions or being able to increase ones success from practice or knowledge This Is not reasonable?    Can you even attempt to explain why?

No, it is not reasonable to create an or-statement, pull a second criteria out of thin air that comes from nobody but yourself, and stick that on to the definition. It is like me  saying the definition of luck is "success or failure apparently brought by chance rather than through one's own actions or the inherent part of each game of chess"


2)   Doesn't mean he got lucky,  just means he played more skillfully then his opponent for those particular matches. It was again His own practice and knowledge and his own actions  and his opponents actions that caused the outcome of those matches.   

With only the knowledge of the result, that is not correct. It is the exact same thing as seeing a person roll a 6 and concluding that it was their skill which guided the 6 to show up. You need information other than the actual outcome to guide the degree to which something is skillful or not. That is why you need repeated trials.

3)  All these people you are linking is not society who defined the terms.   They are staticians who like to crunch numbers even when unnecessary and pointless. 

Yes, you have exhibited your distain for anything that contains numbers or is related to tech many times throughout this thread. I encourage you to continue to do so

4) Any game that has luck involved,  is not even considered a sport at all.   

You again are creating a definition out of thin air

LeeEuler
this fact.

 

Since you seem to be swayed by big letters and like to make things up, I will attempt to speak in your language.

First I thank you for agreeing that luck is 

Sucess or failure based on random chance rather then ones own actions, or the inherent part of every chess game

It took u a while, but after u stoped claiming that chess doesn't fit the criteria to be a sport, you came around.      When you say things like there s no difference between flipping a dice and selecting a move, i think you are taking it to far tho.   or that basketball isn't a sport because balls bounce.   skill is still involved as per my reasonable definition that i made up and you agreed with "the ability to do something well or the part of chess that isn't due to the inherent non-negligible aspect that is rightfully attributed to luck".     but then you contradict the very thing you agreed with! 

When you imply that you are able to consistently able to beat Magnus Carlsen, or that the only reason people have a higher rating than you is that they are cheating, that is pretty disgraceful and disengenous imo. These are people who won big tournaments. and u do that.    Shameful.     

And all from a supposed "broadway dancer" lol.   Like someone would pay for that.   bunch of people  fraduelent people just showing off for no reason. This is similar to how you finally admited that fruit is better than vegetables for determining the winner. Again which is u literally pointing at something that is luck,  and calling it skill too desperately prove there was luck involved.

But again my friend, I thank you for finally agreeing with the definition we all agreed on, which is never forget: Sucess or failure based on random chance rather then ones own actions, or the inherent part of every chess game

technical_knockout

there is no randomness involved with selecting a move.

Ziryab
technical_knockout wrote:

there is no randomness involved with selecting a move.

 

I have never played 1.e3 intentionally, but I have played it.

LeeEuler
technical_knockout wrote:

there is no randomness involved with selecting a move.

Only if you accept there is no randomness in selecting a door offered by Monty Hall

m9829018

No luck is involved in chess, no random factors are present. But high level of uncertainty is dominant on long lines, due to increasing complexity of calculations. This may seem luck to us.

LeeEuler

definitions found online are no more nor less than someone's opinion

I don't disagree. What I am disagreeing with is coolout creating his definition, imagining a consensus around it, passing it off as if it was the definition, and thinking that is a reasonable process.

Of course, to look for evidence of an agreement/consensus surrounding something, it is imperative to search through multiple opinions. That is how the meaning of words come to be. So as capable humans with a search engine, we can get evidence around the consensus/lack of consensus surrounding the meaning of a word by proxying how others choose to define them. And we get a tremendous amount of information when none of the sources in this proxy choose to define the word as having any characteristics associated with the second part of coolout's definition.

We also get a tremendous amount of information when we think about why coolout would add the second part of his definition to a verbatim one pulled off google

blueemu
technical_knockout wrote:

there is no randomness involved with selecting a move.

You haven't looked at many of MY games, have you?

Ziryab
CooloutAC wrote:
Ziryab wrote:
technical_knockout wrote:

there is no randomness involved with selecting a move.

 

I have never played 1.e3 intentionally, but I have played it.

 

walking contradiction.  Again I truly believe this is the long term effect chess has on the brain.    The only way this can be true is from a mouse slip,  which is again your lack of mouse control and you need more mouse practice or need to better maintain your equipment.    Or you mistakenly moved to the wrong square in touch based chess,  which shows a poor lack of concentration or vision.   all part of your human ability,   and not random chance not influenced by your own actions.

 

Dog hairs. Optical mouse. No lack of practice. I've played more than 170,000 games online, although many tens of thousands have been on a mobile device.

You offer enough suggestions to show a glimmer of understanding of the impact of random possibilities defeating clear intent.

Ziryab
blueemu wrote:
technical_knockout wrote:

there is no randomness involved with selecting a move.

You haven't looked at many of MY games, have you?

 

I've looked at @CooloutAC's games. Plenty of randomness there.

Ziryab
CooloutAC wrote:

  Those that are more consistent at it are more skilled.  

 

This assertion has been refuted by data. Please read what others have posted here.

Let's consider some data anyway.

More consistent, therefore more skilled:



Less consistent, therefore less skilled.



I think the evidence (rating) proved you wrong.

blueemu
Optimissed wrote:

@LeeEuler
I'm really not clear why or how definitions and meanings of words matter at all. Within reason, language is a flexible communication tool. We can make words mean what we want them to...

As I recall, Humpty Dumpty adhered to a similar philosophy.

technical_knockout

mouse slips are accidents, not randomness.

blueemu

This is the bit I had in mind:

Ziryab
CooloutAC wrote:

Can you explain it in words?

 

You are consistent because you lack skill.

technical_knockout
btickler wrote:
technical_knockout wrote:  

no, he saw Jesus after his resurrection from the dead:

obviously he was convinced of this, as the comparison of his life before & after this event attests.

As I said...a vision/hallucination, if it is even a real story and was not fabricated to give Saul/Paul some credibility, not being an apostle and all...

I believe this is where we reach an impasse .  Blind faith does not allow for Occam's Razor to be applied.

Acts 9: 13-15, 26-27

Then Ananias answered, Lord, I have heard by many of this man, how much evil he hath done to thy saints at Jerusalem:

And here he hath authority from the chief priests to bind all that call on thy name.

But the Lord said unto him, Go thy way:  for he is a chosen vessel unto me, to bear my name before the Gentiles, and kings, and the children of Israel.

And when Saul was come to Jerusalem, he assayed to join himself to the disciples: but they were all afraid of him, and believed not that he was a disciple.

But Barnabas took him, and brought him to the apostles, and declared unto them how he had seen the Lord in the way, and that he had spoken to him, and how he had preached boldly at Damascus in the name of Jesus.

Ziryab
technical_knockout wrote:

mouse slips are accidents, not randomness.

 

Is it random luck or accident that gives us the small selection of second and third century manuscripts that people have translated to produce the Bible?