Is there such thing as "luck" in chess?

Sort:
technical_knockout

divine providence:  God has authored it.

LeeEuler
CooloutAC wrote:
LeeEuler wrote:
this fact.

 

Since you seem to be swayed by big letters and like to make things up, I will attempt to speak in your language.

First I thank you for agreeing that luck is 

Sucess or failure based on random chance rather then ones own actions, or the inherent part of every chess game

It took u a while, but after u stoped claiming that chess doesn't fit the criteria to be a sport, you came around.      When you say things like there s no difference between flipping a dice and selecting a move, i think you are taking it to far tho.   or that basketball isn't a sport because balls bounce.   skill is still involved as per my reasonable definition that i made up and you agreed with "the ability to do something well or the part of chess that isn't due to the inherent non-negligible aspect that is rightfully attributed to luck".     but then you contradict the very thing you agreed with! 

When you imply that you are able to consistently able to beat Magnus Carlsen, or that the only reason people have a higher rating than you is that they are cheating, that is pretty disgraceful and disengenous imo. These are people who won big tournaments. and u do that.    Shameful.     

And all from a supposed "broadway dancer" lol.   Like someone would pay for that.   bunch of people  fraduelent people just showing off for no reason. This is similar to how you finally admited that fruit is better than vegetables for determining the winner. Again which is u literally pointing at something that is luck,  and calling it skill too desperately prove there was luck involved.

But again my friend, I thank you for finally agreeing with the definition we all agreed on, which is never forget: Sucess or failure based on random chance rather then ones own actions, or the inherent part of every chess game

 

 

ok now that I see your definition more clearly i have to have to say that it is actually not a reasonable definition, because it is a walking contradiction much like yourself.    because random chance not based on ones actions,   is not inherently part of every chess game.  You worded the first part differently but it still means the same as my definition,  but your second part clearly contradicts it lol.   Because all the gameplay and game mechanics in chess are from our own actions and no other device or force.    Sorry for the confusion.    Can you now make an attempt to explain why my definition is not reasonable as I have demonstrated for you how to do so.   Notice i explain its errors,  not simply called it unreasonable because its exact wording is not found on google...

Whether chess is a sport is debatable,  but imo whether luck has elements of chess in it are clearly not.   But I don't sway from the fact that any game that has elements of luck based in it are NOT sports.  

I would imply that I would never be able to beat him,  ever.    Similar to how we have not seen Hikaru lose a chess match yet on the coffee chess youtube channel. lol  I simply don't have the skills.    Even if I was SKILLED enough to get "lucky" from him being sick or distracted,   that still would not be luck IN chess,  it would be completely incidental and luck OUT of chess.    Meaning not having anything to do with the gameplay, mechanics or design of the game.  But as I said I do not possess such skills.

No idea what you are referring to about fruit or broadway dancing.  Seems like more flamboyant conceding from a crumbling mind.  lol

But again refer to my first point and thank you for making your contradictory definition of luck more clear.   Now you try to do the same as I have now taught you,  and explain why my definition is not reasonable or incorrect.   Go on,  give it a shot.   Sucess or failure based on random chance rather then ones own actions,  or not being able to increase ones chance of success with practice or knowledge.

 

I was just trolling you in this specific case man, was not meant to be taken seriously. 

But in an effort to get back on track, I don't think the second half of your definition is reasonable. I mention it in my reply to Optimissed, but I haven't found anybody other than yourself who includes or insinuates anything like the whole second half of your definition ("or not being able to increase ones chance of success with practice or knowledge") in theirs. By including it, you are almost defining the word as the conclusion of your argument, similar to how I sarcastically gave my faux definition.

My stance has always been that chess and other games, sports, and activities are largely skills-based, but that doesn't absolve them of having elements of luck within them. For reference, my actual definition of luck is something akin to: "success or failure apparently brought by chance rather than through one's own actions". I think chess is encapsulated in this definition because in any position, one cannot attribute move selection exclusively to skill any more than they can attribute the selection of a correct door in Monty Hall's old show to skill. We can only get a reference to a person's relative skill through prior information we have about them and through multiple trials.

So as an example, I take an intentionally extreme/limiting situation to help think about it. In any given position, someone who doesn't even know how pieces move can make the "correct" move while a grandmaster can make an "incorrect" one. This fits the definition of luck I used since the outcome of the move is not representative of a fundamental difference in skill. It is based on the action of moving the piece, but only in the same way that the outcome of a dice roll is based on the action of the person rolling it.

One might say that that is not really playing chess, but if you do so, you are essentially back filling a person's intentions and categorizing their skillfulness or lack thereof based on the outcome of the move which has already occurred. To me, that is flawed thinking both because it is unfalsifiable, and because it is somewhat circular reasoning ("Q: What lead to the good move? A: The person's training/intuition/etc. Q: What evidence supports this? A: It was a good move")

technical_knockout

randomly selecting moves means you're not playing chess.    🙂

blueemu
Optimissed wrote:

For what it's worth, Coolout, I believe that genius is a transient and ephemeral thing and it isn't limited to those who are supposed to be in command of it, at their disposal. A less skilled person, on his or her day, can think originally and perfectly and can beat a more skilled player, not through luck but because brilliance lives in each of us. Some more often than others maybe but we would not be human if we each didn't have our flashes of brilliance. You do. I've seen it. Even Elroch, occasionally, although that's a bit far-fetched, I know.

Here, we agree. 

LeeEuler
CooloutAC wrote:
LeeEuler wrote:
CooloutAC wrote:
LeeEuler wrote:
this fact.

 

Since you seem to be swayed by big letters and like to make things up, I will attempt to speak in your language.

First I thank you for agreeing that luck is 

Sucess or failure based on random chance rather then ones own actions, or the inherent part of every chess game

It took u a while, but after u stoped claiming that chess doesn't fit the criteria to be a sport, you came around.      When you say things like there s no difference between flipping a dice and selecting a move, i think you are taking it to far tho.   or that basketball isn't a sport because balls bounce.   skill is still involved as per my reasonable definition that i made up and you agreed with "the ability to do something well or the part of chess that isn't due to the inherent non-negligible aspect that is rightfully attributed to luck".     but then you contradict the very thing you agreed with! 

When you imply that you are able to consistently able to beat Magnus Carlsen, or that the only reason people have a higher rating than you is that they are cheating, that is pretty disgraceful and disengenous imo. These are people who won big tournaments. and u do that.    Shameful.     

And all from a supposed "broadway dancer" lol.   Like someone would pay for that.   bunch of people  fraduelent people just showing off for no reason. This is similar to how you finally admited that fruit is better than vegetables for determining the winner. Again which is u literally pointing at something that is luck,  and calling it skill too desperately prove there was luck involved.

But again my friend, I thank you for finally agreeing with the definition we all agreed on, which is never forget: Sucess or failure based on random chance rather then ones own actions, or the inherent part of every chess game

 

 

ok now that I see your definition more clearly i have to have to say that it is actually not a reasonable definition, because it is a walking contradiction much like yourself.    because random chance not based on ones actions,   is not inherently part of every chess game.  You worded the first part differently but it still means the same as my definition,  but your second part clearly contradicts it lol.   Because all the gameplay and game mechanics in chess are from our own actions and no other device or force.    Sorry for the confusion.    Can you now make an attempt to explain why my definition is not reasonable as I have demonstrated for you how to do so.   Notice i explain its errors,  not simply called it unreasonable because its exact wording is not found on google...

Whether chess is a sport is debatable,  but imo whether luck has elements of chess in it are clearly not.   But I don't sway from the fact that any game that has elements of luck based in it are NOT sports.  

I would imply that I would never be able to beat him,  ever.    Similar to how we have not seen Hikaru lose a chess match yet on the coffee chess youtube channel. lol  I simply don't have the skills.    Even if I was SKILLED enough to get "lucky" from him being sick or distracted,   that still would not be luck IN chess,  it would be completely incidental and luck OUT of chess.    Meaning not having anything to do with the gameplay, mechanics or design of the game.  But as I said I do not possess such skills.

No idea what you are referring to about fruit or broadway dancing.  Seems like more flamboyant conceding from a crumbling mind.  lol

But again refer to my first point and thank you for making your contradictory definition of luck more clear.   Now you try to do the same as I have now taught you,  and explain why my definition is not reasonable or incorrect.   Go on,  give it a shot.   Sucess or failure based on random chance rather then ones own actions,  or not being able to increase ones chance of success with practice or knowledge.

 

I was just trolling you in this specific case man, was not meant to be taken seriously. 

But in an effort to get back on track, I don't think the second half of your definition is reasonable. I mention it in my reply to Optimissed, but I haven't found anybody other than yourself who includes or insinuates anything like the whole second half of your definition ("or not being able to increase ones chance of success with practice or knowledge") in theirs. By including it, you are almost defining the word as the conclusion of your argument, similar to how I sarcastically gave my faux definition.

My stance has always been that chess and other games, sports, and activities are largely skills-based, but that doesn't absolve them of having elements of luck within them. For reference, my actual definition of luck is something akin to: "success or failure apparently brought by chance rather than through one's own actions". I think chess is encapsulated in this definition because in any position, one cannot attribute move selection exclusively to skill any more than they can attribute the selection of a correct door in Monty Hall's old show to skill. We can only get a reference to a person's relative skill through prior information we have about them and through multiple trials.

So as an example, I take an intentionally extreme/limiting situation to help think about it. In any given position, someone who doesn't even know how pieces move can make the "correct" move while a grandmaster can make an "incorrect" one. This fits the definition of luck I used since the outcome of the move is not representative of a fundamental difference in skill. It is based on the action of moving the piece, but only in the same way that the outcome of a dice roll is based on the action of the person rolling it.

One might say that that is not really playing chess, but if you do so, you are essentially back filling a person's intentions and categorizing their skillfulness or lack thereof based on the outcome of the move which has already occurred. To me, that is flawed thinking both because it is unfalsifiable, and because it is somewhat circular reasoning ("Q: What lead to the good move? A: The person's training/intuition/etc. Q: What evidence supports this? A: It was a good move")

 

I'm really not understanding your argument bud.  So you were just trolling me? 

In that specific post #916? Where I gave random definitions that were completely crafted around the conclusion of my argument and pretended like we and the rest of the world were in agreement on them, made up things you said ("the only reason people have a higher rating than you is that they are cheating"), and threw in complete nonsense that had nothing to do with the topic ("fruit is better than vegetables")? Yes that was trolling. They say imitation is the sincerest form of flattery, but I meant it in a mocking way, so regret doing so and apologize. I just hope you refrain from doing the things that I was pointing out you were doing in your replies.

  And you only follow the crowd off cliffs.  You never form your own opinions?   I'm simply putting into my own words the definition of luck

Of course I have opinions that are contrary to consensus, but this is not one of those cases. I accept the common definition of most words, and this is one such example. So I didn't pluck a definition from google to outsource my thinking, but to get some sort of impartial definition down for how many people accept and think about what luck actually means. If whenever people speak they have to give their definition on every word, it is a descension into chaos ("what does 'chaos' mean?" "Well what does 'mean' mean?" "I don't know, how do you think about 'what'"?)

If you can't explain why its not reasonable,  maybe you should ask yourself why.

You are quoting a reply of mine whose second paragraph starts "...I don't think the second half of your definition is reasonable." and then goes on to explain why for the rest of the paragraph.
As for rehasing the whole argument again.   When the definition is "ones own actions"  what does that mean to you?    Because moving a chess piece on the board to me is from ones own action.   

I agree. Selecting a door in Monty Hall's gameshow is also using ones own action. The outcome of these actions is not able to be categorized as luck or skill except through multiple trials.

 

Which is why you had to admit to me you were trolling me on your example definition.

I do not mean this in a demeaning way, but I didn't think anyone could misinterpret the meaning behind my post #916. It starts with "Since you seem to be swayed by big letters and like to make things up, I will attempt to speak in your language." Followed by complete nonsense.

 

lfPatriotGames
Optimissed wrote:
technical_knockout wrote:

there is no randomness involved with selecting a move.

Unless you select it at random?

I have done that. I have been in situations where I had absolutely no idea what to do. None. The clock is ticking. I have to move. 

So I didn't make a move that would be considered an obvious mistake, but there have been times where I can't decide between 6 or 8 seemingly equal moves. So I just guess. Intuition, hunch, hope, etc. I don't know if that's luck, but it's certainly random. 

technical_knockout

guessing moves is not playing chess:

poor clock management is a skill issue, anyways.

llama51
technical_knockout wrote:

why DO you repeatedly close your account & open a new one?  covering your trolling tracks?

A lot of people ask me why I close.

But for example, if I were trying to hide my identity, why would I choose the same name?

Closing your account does not remove your posts.

llama51

This is one of a few really annoying topics that go on and on long after the best answer was  already given.

My version of the answer (probably buried in here somewhere on one of my past accounts) is that the rules of chess describe a game with no luck, but when humans play it there is a non-zero amount of luck.

There have been multiple examples given. 

lfPatriotGames
technical_knockout wrote:

guessing moves is not playing chess:

poor clock management is a skill issue, anyways.

That's probably true. But I'll bet even the best players in the world, when given three or four seemingly identical choices have to decide on a move, using nothing more than randomness. Not luck maybe, but best guess or intuition. 

llama51

Regarding luck, one fun example is the, at times inverse, relationship between knowledge and performance captured by the saying "a little knowledge is a dangerous thing."

It's easy to imagine sacrifices (or other situations) where we might say "only a beginner or a GM would play such a move" and it works for bad moves too. For example knowing enough to feel threatened and defend, but not knowing enough to realize the threat can be ignored.

Depending on our energy level during the game, we might gain more or less knowledge through calculation. Where you stop, and whether the knowledge gained will be useful, has an element of luck.

Also, in many positions a human player is not planning for discrete sequences, they're using heuristics to maximize the probability their move is good. A simple example is mobility. The more squares a piece can move to, the higher probability it will be able to move to a useful square in the future. This means future positions sometimes arise without either player explicitly planning to reach them. Whether each player's knowledge and heuristics will be useful in that unplanned-on position has an element of luck.

Even engines are making their best guess. I remember Rybka programmers saying that they tested changes by having an engine play many games. In some positions the changes caused the engine to play worse, but if the overall performance was higher, then the changes were kept.

One of the early posts in this topic summed it up well saying this is why we play matches, not single games. In probability this concept is known as the law of large numbers. The more times you repeat a random process, the more likely the cumulative results tend towards the expected value. In other words matches with more games have a greater chance of determining the better player.

mpaetz
technical_knockout wrote:

mouse slips are accidents, not randomness.

     Yes, but neither are the deliberately chosen moves. I take a lot of time and many typos to send messages on my phone, an unfortunate "Fringe benefit"of old age, deteriorating agility and poor eyesight. Does this mean that should I make an unintended move I should have had the "skill" to have  been born later?

mpaetz
CooloutAC wrote:
mpaetz wrote:

     You are correct. Luck, or fate, or the capricious nature of the immortal gods--call it what you will--can and does affect all kinds of human endeavors, chess included. Remember that skill is involved in other games, it is not specific to chess. Does this lead to believe there is no skill involved in chess? Chess is mostly based on skill but a bit of luck shows up now and then whether we like it or not

 


There are different types of skills, and not all the same skills are beneficial to different games.  the knowledge and practice to increase your chances of success at chess won't help you in other games.    But the luck you speak of,  like slipping on a banana peel as ludicrous as that comment was to make,  can affect any game not specific to chess. Same goes for anything you deem luck not brought about by your own human action.   Again,  look up the definition of luck and stop arguing about a word you can't even define yourself.

     Exactly. As you say, luck (or chance, serendipity, fate, divine intervention, randomness--whatever you choose to call it) can affect ANY game. Even chess.

technical_knockout
lfPatriotGames wrote:
technical_knockout wrote:

guessing moves is not playing chess:

poor clock management is a skill issue, anyways.

That's probably true. But I'll bet even the best players in the world, when given three or four seemingly identical choices have to decide on a move, using nothing more than randomness. Not luck maybe, but best guess or intuition. 

they are using an internally-trained system of weights & measures to assess the relevance of various factors in any given position, to determine the viability of each candidate move as contrasted with the others, similar to A0's neural network.

chess as an 'art of logical thinking' is essentially infinite to our limited minds, but the more skilled player, who is better at visualizing, calculating & assessing upcoming lines of play is superior...

you can't outrun a bear, but you can outrun your friend that you're hiking with:   😆

were you lucky that he got eaten?

no, you took track in high school.

Hamilton53

Certainly, luck exists - You're playing your opponent while he's waiting for the bus  ... and the bus runs over him.    However, I wouldn't depend on it. 

Stil1

You get food poisoning, the night before your big tournament game.

The next day, you try to play through the foggy head, through the stomach cramps, through the cold sweats and shakiness. Not showing up isn't an option - a no-show is an automatic forfeit.

But it's hard to focus. Every thought feels like a lead anchor, dragging through your mind. Your vision is blurry and you feel like you're going to fall over and pass out.

You place your bishop on the wrong color diagonal, because it's hard to mentally keep track of the squares, and your opponent calls the arbiter. The arbiter frowns at you, resets the position, and takes time off your clock. You should be winning - your opponent doesn't even know the proper lines. He keeps hanging pieces, but you keep missing them - only realizing it after the fact.

You eventually stumble into a completely lost position, missing a beginner-level tactic that you normally would never miss. Your performance level is several hundred points below your norm.

You resign in dismay, feeling ashamed of your performance, and regretting the beef strips that you ate the night before. Your opponent is visibly elated over beating you. He tells you that he's never beaten someone of your rating, before.

You mumble a grudging congratulations, then rush to the bathroom for another round of vomiting.

Bad luck for you - good luck for your opponent.

technical_knockout

bad ordering... try well done next time:

your skill level was exactly as expected, considering the tournament performance circumstances;

bummer for you, but life isn't fair sometimes.

Stil1

Perhaps.

Okay, I got one. You are black, it is your move.

You intend to play ...QxQ, followed by ...Bxc5.

You pick up the queen, you reach over to your opponent's side of the board ...

But as you're setting your piece down to exchange queens, you suddenly sneeze.

When you look at the board a split-second later, you have released your queen ... on the wrong square.

In a panic, you stop the clock and call the arbiter to explain your circumstances.

The arbiter is sympathetic, but informs you that a deliberate move can only be exempt, in such a case, if it were clearly the result of "accidental touching". He tells you that the queen cannot be moved from d8 to d2 as a result of "accidental touching".

The arbiter restarts the clock and allows your opponent to play the next move:

Bad luck for you, good luck for your opponent.

AmmarKnightking

In online chess yes, if opponent is winning and opponents internet connection just get lost somewhere........

In real table chess no luck its all about your brain and practice.

Haider_S9

Luck exists everywhere. It might be a bit difficult to imagine how luck would play a part in chess as opposed to other sports where the form in which luck -good or otherwise- presents itself is easier to think of. For example, in Cricket, luck might make a the ball hit just the sweet spot on the bat leading to the batsman scoring a 6. (Pardon the Cricket terminology, 6 is just a high score, basically). In Chess, where you are moving a piece one square ahead, luck doesn't have much to do with that does it? The piece goes where you want it to go and rules define the significance of that move. However luck can present itself in other forms then. For example, one player may become sick leading them to forfeit and giving the other an easy victory. One player may have had a tremendous day before the match which can lead them to have a positive mindset for the duration of the game, causing them to perform flawlessly. The list can literally go on forever, luck exists everywhere.