Is there such thing as "luck" in chess?

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mpaetz

     I have read your posts. They prove nothing, are full of grammatical errors and non-sequitors that sometimes make your intentions unclear, and ramble over the same unsubstantiated boastings about how you are correct about everything, mistaken attributions, putting things they never said into other posters'.mouths, beating dead horses endlessly and denigrating anyone who disagrees with you. Often they good for a chuckle.

lfPatriotGames
Optimissed wrote:
mpaetz wrote:
lfPatriotGames wrote:

Even though I think it's not a good example, because it's so gruesome, the point is the same. Events like that are completely random chance, or bad luck, for the concert goer. And it happens enough to know that it's possible it could happen again. 

I personally dont think there is much luck in chess, but there is probably more than a zero amount. If even grandmasters attribute some of their outcomes to luck, it makes sense that some of my outcomes could be (in a small way) because of luck. 

     The only things in chess that I have posited as undeniably due to luck are such events as a power outage causing a forfeit in an online game or a heart attack at the board in an OTB game. In such cases no player's skills were involved in deciding the winner/loser of the game.

But you can't claim that luck doesn't play a bigger part. It may be your opinion that it doesn't but you can have no evidence for it.

 

I didn't want to copy your post before this one, because it was too long. But you said that sometimes it's a matter of chance if a skilled player selects a certain move over another one. 

I know this has happened to me MANY times. I know enough not to play an intentionally bad move (or at least one I think is bad) and I may have 3 or 4 absolutely identical moves to choose from. I literally have no idea, of any kind, which one is best. I don't have a thought or plan or idea or suspicion of which move could lead to a better position. I don't even choose one based on if my favorite piece is involved, or which side of the board it is. Nothing. 

In those cases I don't know what else to call it other than chance, or luck. 

DiogenesDue
CooloutAC wrote:

neither color is inherently bad or good in the game of chess

A fitting epitaph for your arguments here.

LeeEuler
 Lee Euler spent weeks arguing that you measure skill against luck.  But tell that to the glicko or ELO equations created by physicists, where "luck" is not a variable.  lol.   

Without going into detail, all I can say is that you are wrong in your insinuation that the creator of either system does not recognize the role luck plays within chess. It is the mainstream consensus opinion of statisticians that luck is a factor in anything humans do. So much so that I'd say it's borderline axiomatic. 

For instance, I reached out to a respected colleague (who wished to remain anonymous in name and title) about the topic of luck vs. skill who referred the paper "Ludometrics: Luck, and How to Measure It". You can find it on the ArXiv here https://arxiv.org/pdf/1811.00673.pdf. Even the technical parts are not so bad so it is pretty approachable.

Some excerpts: 

"Some of this same intractability can be found in Chess’s unfathomable game tree,
which suggests that Chess has at least some luck. This claim can be a sticking point
for those who relish the idea of a game of 'pure skill.' However, this categorization
was hardly defensible in the first place; a random number generator could beat Magnus
Carlsen once every few heat-deaths of the universe, and the reason is unlikely due to the
machine suddenly acquiring a high level of skill, and then immediately relinquishing it."

"RS [return to skill] and luck in a game depend on the population. This is unavoidable. If the population of players is limited to those with very similar skill, the RS will be found to be low
and the luck will be found to be high [Mauboussin (2012) refers to this phenomenon as the 'paradox of skill']. Thus, to compare the amount of luck inherent
to different games, we will need to assume that the reference populations have similar
distributions of expertise"

"Thus we conclude that in this population of professional Go players, there is somewhat
more variation in effective skill amongst the players. If we are willing to assume that
these populations represent similar swaths of the highest level of play for each game, we
can claim that at the highest levels, Chess has more luck than Go."

DiogenesDue
CooloutAC wrote:
btickler wrote:
CooloutAC wrote:

neither color is inherently bad or good in the game of chess

A fitting epitaph for your arguments here.

You are just mad,  because even though you deny it,  you once said in this thread that the only element of luck in the game of chess is randomly choosing colors.   And I agreed with you at first.   But after I analyzed it,   that fact is it's the only element of random chance,  but not an element of good or bad luck.    What I have just explained is so obvious and clear to understand,  that its a hit a nerve with your inferiority complex.    

I haven't denied saying that.  Not once.  That's you and your imagination.

You have not displayed the capacity to analyze much of anything.  What you did was rationalize a reason for changing your tune.  Everyone here can see that somebody has an inferiority complex that is driving their "me against the world" agenda...but it's not me.

lfPatriotGames
CooloutAC wrote:
lfPatriotGames wrote:
Optimissed wrote:
mpaetz wrote:
lfPatriotGames wrote:

Even though I think it's not a good example, because it's so gruesome, the point is the same. Events like that are completely random chance, or bad luck, for the concert goer. And it happens enough to know that it's possible it could happen again. 

I personally dont think there is much luck in chess, but there is probably more than a zero amount. If even grandmasters attribute some of their outcomes to luck, it makes sense that some of my outcomes could be (in a small way) because of luck. 

     The only things in chess that I have posited as undeniably due to luck are such events as a power outage causing a forfeit in an online game or a heart attack at the board in an OTB game. In such cases no player's skills were involved in deciding the winner/loser of the game.

But you can't claim that luck doesn't play a bigger part. It may be your opinion that it doesn't but you can have no evidence for it.

 

I didn't want to copy your post before this one, because it was too long. But you said that sometimes it's a matter of chance if a skilled player selects a certain move over another one. 

I know this has happened to me MANY times. I know enough not to play an intentionally bad move (or at least one I think is bad) and I may have 3 or 4 absolutely identical moves to choose from. I literally have no idea, of any kind, which one is best. I don't have a thought or plan or idea or suspicion of which move could lead to a better position. I don't even choose one based on if my favorite piece is involved, or which side of the board it is. Nothing. 

In those cases I don't know what else to call it other than chance, or luck. 

 

First of all let me explain the difference to you between chance verse luck.  Since this is a distinction many here do not understand.    Elements of Random Chance in the game by design for example is the choosing of random colors.   It is something that is out of the players control.   But it is not something that can be called good or bad "luck",    because your success or failure doesn't necessarily depend on which color you have been given,  that still depends on the individual players skill and neither color is inherently bad or good in the game of chess.  Unless you argues that white is inherently good,  but then it would still depend on the individual player since i'm sure there are many who have a much higher win rate with black.

Now to explain further why what you are calling chance is not even chance applicable to the topic.  What you are calling chance,  is still an educated guess by you.  Your intuition and board vision is based on experience whether or not you have a plan or not doesn't determine if something is luck or not.    The chance you are talking about is the outcome of the move whether it will be a good or bad move,   but the random chance is not something that is determining the move,  it is still determined by your own actions.   And even the chances you win or lose is still not luck and still not chance inside the game,  it is chance outside of the game itself.  Not part of the game design, mechanics or gameplay.  it is an outside measurement,  but again,  it a chance percentage,  not a luck percentage.  There is no such thing because luck depends on success or failure.

   Optimissed thinks people randomly think with their brain like we are walking random devices.    But that is not true,  there is a reason for everything we think even we can't measure why ourselves.   Just like when Lee Euler says we can't measure skill from a single move,  that doesn't mean skill is not involved.   And regardless when it comes to an element of  "luck" in a game.  That means something can't be controlled or influenced in any way by our minds.


Oh. I was just going by what the dictionary said. I personally use luck where someone else might use chance or fortune, they seem pretty interchangeable to me. But the dictionary says luck is "favoring chance". 

You should call them and tell them they have it all wrong. You could tell them they have the definition of sport wrong too while you're at it. 

lfPatriotGames
CooloutAC wrote:
lfPatriotGames wrote:
CooloutAC wrote:
lfPatriotGames wrote:
Optimissed wrote:
mpaetz wrote:
lfPatriotGames wrote:

Even though I think it's not a good example, because it's so gruesome, the point is the same. Events like that are completely random chance, or bad luck, for the concert goer. And it happens enough to know that it's possible it could happen again. 

I personally dont think there is much luck in chess, but there is probably more than a zero amount. If even grandmasters attribute some of their outcomes to luck, it makes sense that some of my outcomes could be (in a small way) because of luck. 

     The only things in chess that I have posited as undeniably due to luck are such events as a power outage causing a forfeit in an online game or a heart attack at the board in an OTB game. In such cases no player's skills were involved in deciding the winner/loser of the game.

But you can't claim that luck doesn't play a bigger part. It may be your opinion that it doesn't but you can have no evidence for it.

 

I didn't want to copy your post before this one, because it was too long. But you said that sometimes it's a matter of chance if a skilled player selects a certain move over another one. 

I know this has happened to me MANY times. I know enough not to play an intentionally bad move (or at least one I think is bad) and I may have 3 or 4 absolutely identical moves to choose from. I literally have no idea, of any kind, which one is best. I don't have a thought or plan or idea or suspicion of which move could lead to a better position. I don't even choose one based on if my favorite piece is involved, or which side of the board it is. Nothing. 

In those cases I don't know what else to call it other than chance, or luck. 

 

First of all let me explain the difference to you between chance verse luck.  Since this is a distinction many here do not understand.    Elements of Random Chance in the game by design for example is the choosing of random colors.   It is something that is out of the players control.   But it is not something that can be called good or bad "luck",    because your success or failure doesn't necessarily depend on which color you have been given,  that still depends on the individual players skill and neither color is inherently bad or good in the game of chess.  Unless you argues that white is inherently good,  but then it would still depend on the individual player since i'm sure there are many who have a much higher win rate with black.

Now to explain further why what you are calling chance is not even chance applicable to the topic.  What you are calling chance,  is still an educated guess by you.  Your intuition and board vision is based on experience whether or not you have a plan or not doesn't determine if something is luck or not.    The chance you are talking about is the outcome of the move whether it will be a good or bad move,   but the random chance is not something that is determining the move,  it is still determined by your own actions.   And even the chances you win or lose is still not luck and still not chance inside the game,  it is chance outside of the game itself.  Not part of the game design, mechanics or gameplay.  it is an outside measurement,  but again,  it a chance percentage,  not a luck percentage.  There is no such thing because luck depends on success or failure.

   Optimissed thinks people randomly think with their brain like we are walking random devices.    But that is not true,  there is a reason for everything we think even we can't measure why ourselves.   Just like when Lee Euler says we can't measure skill from a single move,  that doesn't mean skill is not involved.   And regardless when it comes to an element of  "luck" in a game.  That means something can't be controlled or influenced in any way by our minds.


Oh. I was just going by what the dictionary said. I personally use luck where someone else might use chance or fortune, they seem pretty interchangeable to me. But the dictionary says luck is "favoring chance". 

You should call them and tell them they have it all wrong. You could tell them they have the definition of sport wrong too while you're at it. 


  "success or failure apparently brought by chance rather than through one's own actions"

 

I don't know what your dictionary says but I was going by the first definition that pops up on google.   And do I have define favor or favorable for you?  Whatever definition you are using is no different then the difference between chance and luck I just explained to you.     

And oh yes,  you are one of those desperately trying to prove there is luck in chess to help support your belief chess is not a sport.   I was starting to wonder why you were literally contradicting the very definition you just spouted yourself.   lol

And let me just add luck is the opposite of skill in the context of a game.   Which means success or failure that can't be influenced by practice or knowledge as an example.   People like to ignore this as well.    Only in a chess community are people like this real.  wow.

I'm confused. I think luck and chance and good fortune are all basically the same. There are probably other words that also mean about the same thing. It's just some random thing that happens for no apparent reason. Like when I make a chess move that has no explanation. 

So I really don't understand why you think I would want there to be luck in chess in support of chess not being a sport. I would want there to be luck in chess if I thought chess IS a sport. Because all sports have an element of luck (or chance or favor or fortune or whateever you want to call it) to them. No exceptions. 

But you are saying there is no luck in chess. Which is a very, very strong argument that chess isn't a sport. 

InsertInterestingNameHere

Damn I wanna join in this thread but I kinda don’t feel like reading 70 pages because undoubtedly some people have the same opinion as me 😪

InsertInterestingNameHere

huh

StumpyBlitzer

Let's keep on the topic and stay away from personal attacks. Adults we are?

Thanks 

mpaetz
lfPatriotGames wrote:

 

I didn't want to copy your post before this one, because it was too long. But you said that sometimes it's a matter of chance if a skilled player selects a certain move over another one. 

I know this has happened to me MANY times. I know enough not to play an intentionally bad move (or at least one I think is bad) and I may have 3 or 4 absolutely identical moves to choose from. I literally have no idea, of any kind, which one is best. I don't have a thought or plan or idea or suspicion of which move could lead to a better position. I don't even choose one based on if my favorite piece is involved, or which side of the board it is. Nothing. 

In those cases I don't know what else to call it other than chance, or luck. 

     I sympathize with your dilemma. I've been in that situation too. I go with the move that would further the plan I have been working on should it succeed. Of course many people would point out that just shows our lack of skill. Perhaps the luck comes in when we weren't born with the "feel" for the game of Morphy or Capablanca.

DiogenesDue
CooloutAC wrote:

Again, how ironic.  Tell that to the guy who says he refuses to play chess on the site because he felt people were challenging him to matches to persecute him.   

Not what I said, as usual.

Back on topic it is...

allanbank
The best luck is to play a 🇧🇷 Brazilian, they are so bad at chess 😂😂
mpaetz
CooloutAC wrote:
mpaetz wrote:

     I have read your posts. They prove nothing, are full of grammatical errors and non-sequitors that sometimes make your intentions unclear, and ramble over the same unsubstantiated boastings about how you are correct about everything, mistaken attributions, putting things they never said into other posters'.mouths, beating dead horses endlessly and denigrating anyone who disagrees with you. Often they good for a chuckle.

 

being a grammar nazi,  saying i'm low skill rated,  saying i can't know anything without firsthand experience,  is all you conceding the debate bud.   They are irrelevant and have nothing to do with the validity of an argument.  Stop being a troll and actually go play some chess matches on this site.   What most people are chuckling at is how fake you and your profile are.  Although, being an old bird I'm sure you don't understand what I'm talking about.  lol

     Just saying that sometimes your posts--obviously dashed off without being thought out--wind up garbled and don't really express what you later say you meant. Note that there is no mention of your playing ability here, or in any of my comments. I pooh-poohed your claim to know what young people at OTB classical tournaments are like as I have met them and can tell you don't know squat about them. 

     As for my playing, I simply don't care for online speed chess. When I play speed chess it's with friends, in person, in a convivial atmosphere. I do play long games three nights/week, which is probably more time than I should devote to it. 

     My purpose for having chess.com membership is access to the openings database and computer analysis of my games. I looked at the forums during the pandemic when I had excess time on my hands and found some to be interesting.

 

Grimm_Stone

i played bughouse with a few 1500 and i apparently destroyed them ( im 1300)

https://www.chess.com/game/live/46197591355

https://www.chess.com/game/live/46213152929

https://www.chess.com/game/live/46194068675

also,  i have even matches with 1400's which is strange.

i have made a few theories on why this is

 

maybe the 1500's were having a bad day

maybe i was having a good day

maybe i have powers over 1500's

and the most likely : when i play 1400's and below, i feel confident of winning. 1500's and above im nervous and careful, and i play better like this.

 

or its luck of course 

I doubt it's luck since this has happend to me once before (beating 1500's a lot).

mpaetz

     In America phrases such as "I lucked out", or "Just lucked out I guess", using "luck".as a verb, is common usage. 

InsertInterestingNameHere
Optimissed wrote:

It's wrong, too, since "lucky" refers to an event's impact on you, positively or negatively, as the case may be.

Never thought of it this way. I’m pretty sure lucky only means positive luck, since saying “I’m so lucky my house burned down” doesn’t make much sense

Kotshmot

In chess like in anything there are things that occurr more or less randomly, because the affects of your moves are impossible to calculate till the end. This means luck is involved. The better you play the more youre in control, how ever luck/randomness cant be eliminated. What you consider being lucky is subjective. So the answer to your to your question is self evident.

lfPatriotGames
Optimissed wrote:

<<I was just going by what the dictionary said. I personally use luck where someone else might use chance or fortune, they seem pretty interchangeable to me. But the dictionary says luck is "favoring chance". >>

Better try another dictionary, Pat. What's that supposed to mean? Luck is a noun. Favouring chance is a phrase dominated by a verb. Change dictionaries.

OK. It's Merriam Webster. They are supposed to be pretty good. They have both the noun and verb. The "favoring chance" is under the noun definition. 

I just looked it up under the Cambridge dictionary. It says pretty much the same thing. A force that causes things to happen by chance. 

I'll try dictionary.com next. 

DiogenesDue
CooloutAC wrote:

Ok I just looked up the full Cambridge defintion.  how despicably dishonest and fake you are.     Here it is including the parts you left out.  

"The force that causes things, especially GOOD things, to happen to you by chance and NOT as a result of your own efforts or abilities"

The internet is a cesspool,  this site is no different.  But unlike fraudulent btickler,  I'm not gonna fault the game  or those that don't post here and roll around in the mud with you people.   Plenty of good honest players here, despite the alt account speedrunners, sandbaggers,  and trolls.   lol.

The fact I'm even talking to the loony toons in this asylum means I have issues myself.  wow...

Wheels...