Is there such thing as "luck" in chess?

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lfPatriotGames
CooloutAC wrote:
lfPatriotGames wrote:

I didn't expect an answer, because you have contradicted yourself so much you probably don't even know where to start. 

You said manipulating the dice is cheating. It is not. Playing with loaded dice is cheating, using practiced techniques for rolling dice is not cheating. So the question, again, how is manipulating dice rolls through technique cheating if dice rolls are completely random?

It sounds to me like you are sticking with your positions. That a) dice rolls are completely random and zero skill is involved. and b) manipulating the dice through technique or skill is cheating.

Does that seem like a credible position to take?

 

Jesus... First of all tell me what the contradiction is.  Secondly,  let me give you an example.  When in a casino you must throw the dice so it hits the back and wall and then rolls down the felt.    If you try to roll the dice in some special tricky way that looks like manipulation,   the craps guy will tell you to roll again.  Do it too much and he'll tell you to get lost.

The reason why dice rolls are random  is because they are intended to be and regulated so they are.   lmao.   Just like chess is intented to have NO elements of luck,  unlike dice rolls....

Except you said dice rolls are random. You said there is ZERO skill in influencing the outcome. So what's this nonsense about casinos banning people if dice rolls are random and can NOT be influenced by skill? Do you see the contradiction there?

I think everyone agrees playing with loaded dice is cheating. But you seem to be suggesting that casinos can ban a person for using skill to increase probabilities of the outcome. But you also are sticking with your assertion that dice rolls are completely random and NO amount of skill will affect the outcome. 

 

lfPatriotGames

The topic is luck in chess. Chess is a game of skill, dice is a game of chance. But there is some luck in chess, and there is some skill in dice. So when trying to convince yourself that there is no luck in chess, you have use good examples. You have to be credible. Otherwise you won't believe yourself. 

The dice example is relevant because you are convincing yourself there is no skill in dice throwing. But if you say to yourself "self, that doesn't make any sense" then you will start to question your own credibility. That's the first step to finding more accurate and honest answers. 

lfPatriotGames

It sounds like you are coming around to the idea that there IS skill in rolling dice. And rules have to be implemented to make the outcomes more random. This is quite different than your earlier position, where you insisted NO amount of skill will affect the outcome. 

Just to be sure, lets take the casino element out of it. Lets say it's just two people playing dice on a perfectly flat surface, with a perfectly flat wall. Do you still think there is ZERO amount of skill in affecting the outcome? Remember, no casino rules, you can throw the dice any way you want.

Because if you can see how you dropped the ball on this example, you can give hope to yourself on whether or not there is luck in chess. 

DiogenesDue
CooloutAC wrote:

really?  Because some people win more with black.  sorry bud.  Even optimissed had to agree on this one.  In tournaments when players sometimes choose a color.  Why not choose white everytime?    lol

Look at any opening explorer on any chess site you prefer and check the win/loss/draw percentages of any variety of openings you want to...

Here's chess.com:

1. e4
White wins 38%
Draw 31%
Black wins 31%
1. d4
White wins 39%
Draw 33%
Black wins 28%
1. Nf3
White wins 39%
Draw 35%
Black wins 26%
1. c4
White wins 39%
Draw 34%
Black wins 27%

...Optimissed is not an authority on opening win/loss/draw percentages.

And...every decent player would and does choose white every time, unless it's an armageddon tiebreaker.  Have you even been to a tournament?

It's surreal how much you don't know and yet still try to make claims about.

lfPatriotGames
CooloutAC wrote:
lfPatriotGames wrote:

It sounds like you are coming around to the idea that there IS skill in rolling dice. And rules have to be implemented to make the outcomes more random. This is quite different than your earlier position, where you insisted NO amount of skill will affect the outcome. 

Just to be sure, lets take the casino element out of it. Lets say it's just two people playing dice on a perfectly flat surface, with a perfectly flat wall. Do you still think there is ZERO amount of skill in affecting the outcome? Remember, no casino rules, you can throw the dice any way you want.

Because if you can see how you dropped the ball on this example, you can give hope to yourself on whether or not there is luck in chess. 

 

You do realize there are rules in the game of chess right?   You do realize what cheating means right?  

I already explained to you there are ways to cheat at dice without using fake dice.     How you place them and shake them in a cup for example or place them on the table.   Rules are necessary to keep all games fair.   And dice are intended to be purely random.   If we took the casino out the picture we would have to set our own agreed upon rules that I would insist on lol.  

I didn't drop any ball,  I think i probably made your head explode because you didn't think I would have an answer.  But you should know I always do.  Its obvious you know nothing about dice games.    You are in denial.

Also when someone says a craps shooter in the casino is experienced at rolling the dice,  it just means he makes it look artful and stylish and gives it a nice clean looking roll etc.   He doens't look like someone who never threw dice at the table before,   doesn't keep throwing bad rolls to make the "arbiter" to tell him to roll again.   Even if that crazy gambler (degenerate gamblers are literally like crazy crackheads)  thinks he is affecting the dice to increase his chances,  HE IS NOT!  hahaha.

I'll ask again. I'll keep it simpler. Two people, playing on a perfectly flat surface, with a perfectly flat wall. No casino rules, you can throw the dice any way you want, as long as they hit the wall. So, yes or no, will SKILL increase the probability of obtaining desired results?

We all agree that rules have to be put in place to make it more random. But that fact alone suggests that there are ways to use skill to affect outcomes. 

Mugo345

For your own good; everyone please stop arguing about a question that is probably far beyond the understanding of the human mind!!

DiogenesDue
CooloutAC wrote:

Why would they choose black at an armegeddon tie breaker?

Even if you were to say white has a slight advantage,  that does not mean you can force a win as white.  That does not mean white automatically means success,  or regarding the topic,  good luck.

Read the rules for armageddon tiebreakers and figure it out.  It's not at all hard to understand.  Let's see your analytical skills in action wink.png...

It doesn't have to force a win for white, it's about a 5% advantage overall for white (at any rating, by the way), which blows your "color selection does not affect the outcome" premise clean out of the water...

 

Mugo345
CooloutAC wrote:
Mugo345 wrote:

For your own good; everyone please stop arguing about a question that is probably far beyond the understanding of the human mind!!

 

Its not though we have a clear definitions of what skilll, luck and chance are.   Some people just for some reason refuse to believe them because they don't fit in their narrative or support other beliefs they have.   To admit these definitions crashes their whole world.

For example btickler has always believed getting white is good luck.    IMO it is just random chance because white doesn't force a win,  white doesn't inherently mean something good or bad.  It all depends on the player.    

Also @btickler,  I just read something interesting that makes sense.   Players usually tend to have a higher percentage on white,  because that is usually what beginners learn first,  they learn the power of the first move, etc..    This is very very true in my case.   When I first started chess I had like an almost 60% win rate with white,  and only 40% win rate with black pieces.  It was a huge drastic difference.  The more experience I got and started learning some black openings,  because before that I really only knew a couple white ones.    Then I eventually increased my black win percentage and I have closed that gap.  so that now I'm pretty much 50/50 with either.

I know, I'm just trying to get everyone to stop arguing. You'll never talk sense into these guys!

DiogenesDue
CooloutAC wrote:

Its not though we have a clear definitions of what skilll, luck and chance are.   Some people just for some reason refuse to believe them because they don't fit in their narrative or support other beliefs they have.   To admit these definitions crashes their whole world.

For example btickler has always believed getting white is good luck.    IMO it is just random chance because white doesn't force a win,  white doesn't inherently mean something good or bad.  It all depends on the player.    

Also @btickler,  I just read something interesting that makes sense.   Players usually tend to have a higher percentage on white,  because that is usually what beginners learn first,  they learn the power of the first move, etc..    This is very very true in my case.   When I first started chess I had like an almost 60% win rate with white,  and only 40% win rate with black pieces.  It was a huge drastic difference.  The more experience I got and started learning some black openings,  because before that I really only knew a couple white ones.    Then I eventually increased my black win percentage and I have closed that gap.  so that now I'm pretty much 50/50 with either.

I don't "believe" white wins more games overall than black across the board, it's an objective fact/truth.  Go ahead and post a thread called "Blacks wins just as often as white" and watch the tidal wave descend on you wink.png...

P.S. You have won 51% of your games as white and 46% as black...hey, what do you know?  It's exactly a 5% difference over 2000+ games.

Mugo345
CooloutAC wrote:
Mugo345 wrote:
CooloutAC wrote:
Mugo345 wrote:

For your own good; everyone please stop arguing about a question that is probably far beyond the understanding of the human mind!!

 

Its not though we have a clear definitions of what skilll, luck and chance are.   Some people just for some reason refuse to believe them because they don't fit in their narrative or support other beliefs they have.   To admit these definitions crashes their whole world.

For example btickler has always believed getting white is good luck.    IMO it is just random chance because white doesn't force a win,  white doesn't inherently mean something good or bad.  It all depends on the player.    

Also @btickler,  I just read something interesting that makes sense.   Players usually tend to have a higher percentage on white,  because that is usually what beginners learn first,  they learn the power of the first move, etc..    This is very very true in my case.   When I first started chess I had like an almost 60% win rate with white,  and only 40% win rate with black pieces.  It was a huge drastic difference.  The more experience I got and started learning some black openings,  because before that I really only knew a couple white ones.    Then I eventually increased my black win percentage and I have closed that gap.  so that now I'm pretty much 50/50 with either.

I know, I'm just trying to get everyone to stop arguing. You'll never talk sense into these guys!


its not about them though bud.  Its about everyone reading from the shadows that might not know any better.  I do it for their benefit.   I know I can't change these poster's minds.   I believe the reason why society is becoming more and more crazy,  and people are rightly blaming the internet.   Is because the only people posting their opinions are people like them saying crazy things.    They unfortunately are the loudest voices online and I'm just doing my part to counter their narrative in a public space.   Very few people in this thread even play games on this site.    I mean its clear they are all trolls and they have dominated these forums for years poisoning young minds.    I'm standing up to them because I sincerely want to see the sport grow,  while they want to stop that from happening.

I agree, social media can corrupt a lot of people's minds that don't know better. I've seen people get emotional over what people post and say on the internet. I've even been corrupt my self at one point but I got over it with a few prayers. I'm only 14 currently but I think I'm wise for my age.

llama51

For some reason I scored better as black, about 100 Elo worth.

Well "some reason" . . .

I had some serious flaws in my french and sicilian repertoire as white that I was too lazy to fix.

But still, I played enough gambit trash as black that you'd think it'd even out... but I guess in blitz gambit trash was actually not much of a handicap tongue.png

llama51
Mugo345 wrote:

I agree, social media can corrupt a lot of people's minds that don't know better. I've seen people get emotional over what people post and say on the internet. I've even been corrupt my self at one point but I got over it with a few prayers. I'm only 14 currently but I think I'm wise for my age.

I'm so thankful that social media didn't exist when I was a kid. The potential for bullying and envy and etc is just so large.

Lots of luck to you young people.

llama51

I assume if you got data for a nice sample size, that white would score a bit better... actually you can see stats like that at the end of arena tournaments (at least on lichess) and yeah, white scores a bit better.

llama51

Oh, the luck debate. Nah, not interested in that tongue.png

llama51
CooloutAC wrote:

the old crazies who don't even care enough to play games here 

Hey! I resemble that remark!

DiogenesDue
CooloutAC wrote:

well like I said white is way better for all time stats.  for the full 6 months I been playing.  But for many of those months all i knew was how to play white.  Many experts are saying that is why white always skews better.   Sure white has a +.25 advantage on the eval bar because of the first move.   But that is also why we learn to play white first.    For most of us, and for more experienced players it doesn't make a difference,  or as the case with me and you right now we are slightly better with black at the moment.

So the whole point here is we can't say that getting white is necessarily "good luck" for someone and the reason they won a match.   In fact to do so would be contradicting the claim that chess is based purely on skill.    So people need to realize,  random chance,  does not necessarily mean luck.   Because as per the definition of luck,  its not luck if the action was from human ability,  and if it did not influence a successful or failed outcome.

You can never say what the outcome of a single game will be, but over millions and millions of games white maintains a clear advantage in wins whether beginner, GM, or engine.  This is known as statistics wink.png...and in this case, those statistics prove you wrong, regardless of how you feel about your 50/50 ratio of late.  Color selection *is* a slight advantage for white, ergo, getting to play white because of random chance is...?

That's right...it's lucky.  The only luck inherent to the design of chess.

llama51

Maybe it was in a private group... yeah the cheating forum, I made an anti speedrunning topic.

My views on it don't go as far as yours, but you'd probably have given me a thumbs up.

DiogenesDue
llama51 wrote:

Maybe it was in a private group... yeah the cheating forum, I made an anti speedrunning topic.

My views on it don't go as far as yours, but you'd probably have given me a thumbs up.

Speedrunning and trash talking the lower rated players on the way up is garbage, but Naroditsky (to use the best example available) never denigrates his opponents and in fact constantly defends them to his followers on chat, and applauds their play.  There are what,  50,000+ games a day?  Your chances of getting steamrolled by a speedrunner are incredibly tiny, and you get the rating points refunded.  Damage done?  Neglible.

DiogenesDue
CooloutAC wrote:

It is random chance,  but it is not  luck.  Because white does not force a win,  and does not necessarily increase ones chances of winning, regardless of the assumed advantage of the first move.

You tried to use my stats to prove your false assertion.   But as I explained,  win percentage skews higher for white in the playerbase,  because that is the color that people learn to play first.  But as players get more advanced,  especially for the pro players  it makes no difference.     I was literally at a 60 percent win rate with white and 40 precent win rate with black.  If you look at my all time stats i'm still only 45% win rate with black.   But now that I decided to learn black openings these past few months and work on my game with black pieces.   I'm now around 50/50 for the past 90 or 30 days.  51/52 and 52/51 respectively.    

So again the fact it depends on the skill of the player with each color,  means one color is not inherently bad or good.  Skill is still the only factor and the gameplay is determining the outcome.   

No, even if you insist on pretending you can look at this from a case by case basis, unless you are exactly 50/50 and your opponent is also exactly 50/50, then somebody is still "getting lucky" by getting the better color. wink.png

llama51
btickler wrote:
llama51 wrote:

Maybe it was in a private group... yeah the cheating forum, I made an anti speedrunning topic.

My views on it don't go as far as yours, but you'd probably have given me a thumbs up.

Speedrunning and trash talking the lower rated players on the way up is garbage, but Naroditsky (to use the best example available) never denigrates his opponents and in fact constantly defends them to his followers on chat, and applauds their play.  There are what,  50,000+ games a day?  Your chances of getting steamrolled by a speedrunner are incredibly tiny, and you get the rating points refunded.  Damage done?  Neglible.

It was actually a Naroditsky speedrun I linked in my complaint.

Yes, he is very polite.

But from his opponent's point of view, here is a 1600 rated player taking 30-60 seconds on every move and playing like a GM. Obviously a cheater right? So the guy cheats against Naroditsky and gets banned.

In the part of the video that I linked, Narodiitsky says "this guy is not an experienced cheater" which strengthens my case that the guy was only doing it in retaliation. His account was a few years old with (IIRC) a few thousand games.

This is just a garbage thing to do to your players.

My proposed solution is you give them a GM title and/or their actual rating and/or a pop up message that says you're playing a GM.

The whole point of cheating being wrong is that it lacks authenticity. Your opponent believes they're playing a person when they're not. For the same reason, philosophically, speedrunning is just as unethical. That was my argument.