Is there such thing as "luck" in chess?

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DiogenesDue
Kotshmot wrote:

The example that I gave was very specific and this did not address it at all. If you make good move but you have no idea why it's good, no skill is involved in making this move at all. Yet it can win the game on the spot.

I just addressed it.  There's rarely if ever a move where the player is actually choosing without any reason whatsoever.  If two players who are not very skilled plod along at low skill, and a mate eventually results, that's not luck...even if the players involved cannot articulate their reasoning, or even if they cannot find the mate again.  If you ask me to talk about oranges, and then later ask "well what about the purple oranges?", I'm going to answer "there are no purple oranges, unless you paint one purple to make an argument...".

If you want to posit a game where a random number generator selects between all legal moves, that would be luck...but that's also not really "playing" chess anymore at that point.  It's actually an abdication of playing the game wink.png.

I also covered this in my response to the "What if a move only turns out to be strong 10 moves later?" scenario, in a prior post.

Kotshmot
btickler wrote:
Kotshmot wrote:

The example that I gave was very specific and this did not address it at all. If you make good move but you have no idea why it's good, no skill is involved in making this move at all. Yet it can win the game on the spot.

I just addressed it.  There's rarely if ever a move where the player is actually choosing without any reason whatsoever.  If two players who are not very skilled plod along at low skill, and a mate eventually results, that's not luck...even if the players involved cannot articulate their reasoning, or even if they cannot find the mate again.  If you ask me to talk about oranges, and then later ask "well what about the purple oranges?", I'm going to answer "there are no purple oranges, unless you paint one purple to make an argument...".

If you want to posit a game where a random number generator selects between all legal moves, that would be luck...but that's also not really "playing" chess anymore at that point.  It's actually an abdication of playing the game .

I also covered this in my response to the "What if a move only turns out to be strong 10 moves later?" scenario, in a prior post.

What I'm arguing is that there are scenarios in chess where you make an objectively good move for the wrong reason and since the correct idea was missed, the move turns out to be completely random. For example the reason why you made this move could be objectively bad, maybe there was an easy defence against your threat that you missed.

My argument is that this scenario can be compared to one where a random number generator chose the move, as there were no correct ideas behind choosing the move but it turned out good.

An objectively good move chosen for the wrong reason = an objectively good move chosen by random number generator

CraigIreland

Reasons are the stories we tell ourselves and others to justify actions but our brains are much more complex than just reasoning. We evaluate all present information referenced against experience. It would be impossible to explain, even to ourselves, how every factor in our evaluation, interacts with a decision.

Kotshmot
CraigIreland wrote:

Reasons are the stories we tell ourselves and others to justify actions but our brains are much more complex than just reasoning. We evaluate all present information referenced against experience. It would be impossible to explain, even to ourselves, how every factor in our evaluation, interacts with a decision.

Every position, every move happens in a unique scenario where different complex evaluations are made to produce a move, as you explained. However, sometimes a move CAN have a very simple purpose, for example you find only one way to defend a pawn so you go for it. This doesn't undo anything about my argument in the previous post, if it was an attempt at it.

CraigIreland

It's not my intention to undermine anyone's point. I'm just adding thoughts which others might have missed

DiogenesDue
Kotshmot wrote:

What I'm arguing is that there are scenarios in chess where you make an objectively good move for the wrong reason and since the correct idea was missed, the move turns out to be completely random. For example the reason why you made this move could be objectively bad, maybe there was an easy defence against your threat that you missed.

My argument is that this scenario can be compared to one where a random number generator chose the move, as there were no correct ideas behind choosing the move but it turned out good.

An objectively good move chosen for the wrong reason = an objectively good move chosen by random number generator

Except that one is based on lack of skill and the choice of a player, and one is chosen by a random number generator.  It's a pretty clear distinction.  Decision/choice vs. no decision/choice.

DiogenesDue
Optimissed wrote:

I occasionally win games because I blundered, in that I made a move I rejected and that move turns out to be strong. Occasionally, I've won, not because the move was "objectively" strong, but because the move I rejected introduces potentially favourable complications. Looking at it afterwards, it's been possible to determine that I probably wouldn't have won the game, had it not been for the error, even though the move was weak. Occasionally, it seems that my unconscious mind has done things that I've consciously rejected and I've benefitted from it. If I'd made that choice consciously, on a percentage basis, maybe it would have been down to skill. However, playing a move that has been consciously rejected, which effectively wins the game, certainly cannot be shown not to contain an element that we would probably call "luck".

That whole paragraph is describing choices based on skill or lack thereof.  Also, note your lack of inclusion of the other player's skill in your assessment of the outcome.

You can make make lots of bad choices and still win if your opponent does likewise.  No luck involved.

Therefore those claiming that chess is a game of skill and therefore contains no elements of luck are wrong. They should learn from stronger arguments rather than trying to stick to non-workable "principles". Trying to claim that luck doesn't exist in chess beyond colour selection is an attempt to claim an absolute. It is an attempt to build an ideal picture, where luck and skill are forever seperate from one-another, and moreover, to pretend that the real World therefore follows the principles of the Ideal. Science doesn't work like that, at all. Yes, science attempts to seperate variables and constants, so they may be assessed and measured. However, it doesn't then insist that the World should follow the principle that those factors are, from then on, dissected from one-another in reality. Perhaps anyone with any sense will accept this argument and learn from it, by realising that many such arguments can be made, which show that it is impossible to verify that chance does not play its part in obtaining the result of a chess game.

You're mistaking a complex unknown outcome with chance and calling it luck in hindsight.  A human bias that is quite normal.

DiogenesDue
Optimissed wrote:

You haven't made an argument that luck doesn't exist in chess, however. You've cited a few instances where we can ascribe some level of skill to situations where a player makes a sort of reflex move. There are so many situations where genuine chance or luck, because effectively they're the same thing, can alter a result in a game of chess. Many examples have been presented. Can't quite understand why you and Coolout are fighting.

Disingenuous attempt to join us at the hip.  The reasons are glaringly obvious wink.png.

lfPatriotGames
Optimissed wrote:

There's a missing post.

In a nutshell, in order to make, successfully, an argument that there's no luck in chess, it's necessary to find some means to demonstrate the truth of such a claim.

It isn't sufficient to show that skill is present for all scenarios, even if one can do that. It is necessary to show that luck is absent from all scenarios.

That makes sense. Chess is a game of skill, so I think most games have most moves based on skill. I think a lot of games are all skill. Such as a grandmaster playing a beginner. The grandmaster might win in 12 moves. I would say that's all skill. 

Skill is probably present for all games (with the possible exception of computer generated random moves) and some of my games on occasion. I just don't see how it could be shown or proven luck is absent in all scenarios. Games where moves are made for absolutely no valid reason I would say are luck. 

I've had games where my only two options are to not move, or, move a piece for no reason. No plan, no idea, no strategy or tactic or even guess. In those cases the only reason I move is because it's my turn. A couple of times I've even said "I can't decide, where would you move?"

I would call the result of that move, good or bad, luck. 

Kotshmot
btickler wrote:
Kotshmot wrote:

What I'm arguing is that there are scenarios in chess where you make an objectively good move for the wrong reason and since the correct idea was missed, the move turns out to be completely random. For example the reason why you made this move could be objectively bad, maybe there was an easy defence against your threat that you missed.

My argument is that this scenario can be compared to one where a random number generator chose the move, as there were no correct ideas behind choosing the move but it turned out good.

An objectively good move chosen for the wrong reason = an objectively good move chosen by random number generator

Except that one is based on lack of skill and the choice of a player, and one is chosen by a random number generator.  It's a pretty clear distinction.  Decision/choice vs. no decision/choice.

It is a clear distinction but this still doesn't support your stance on this topic and it's a pretty worthless point to mention here in terms of relevancy.

For luck to NOT be involved, a good move can't be based on LACK of skill. This is the whole reason I made the comparison and you apparently missed it.

Kotshmot
CooloutAC wrote:
Kotshmot wrote:
btickler wrote:
Kotshmot wrote:

Problem in this lack of skill vs luck comparison at the end of your post is that they don't contradict each other at all.

If I make a move that I don't understand at all but it happens to be the best move, I haven't shown any skill but rather lack of it. My opponent also did not see the power of the move and let it happen, therefore its also a display of lack of skill. Skill level of the players hasn't been shown to differ, yet we have a winner. Chance, luck, whatever you want to call it is the decisive element in this scenario, coexisting with lack of skill by two even players. You don't have to design a random factor in the game, luck will always exist everywhere.

Skill and lack of skill are a spectrum, and in human terms, a spectrum with quasi-asymptotes at either end ...it's very rare for perfect skill or complete lack of skill to exist.

On a percentage scale, even if one hypothetical player has 2% skill, the 3% opponent can win the day.  Your statement "if I make a move that I don't understand at all" is also exceedingly rare.  Even a first time player often responds to e4 with e5.  They often move their knight towards the center of the board by preference.  They often move pawns to open lines for pieces, and this becomes apparent when they immediately follow up by moving one of those pieces. 

That's skill.  A very minor amount of skill, borrowed and adapted from other games/endeavors, but non-zero skill nonetheless.

Skill is also a range from move to move, not a discrete value.  There's a powerful gravitational pull towards the center of the range, but sometimes anomalies occur...ergo Karpov resigning in 11 moves one time in his professional career, et al.  Nobody, including probably Karpov, will know exactly what distracted him, but something did.  It was not random chance, and you can't blame it on luck.  

Think of it more like biting your cheek while eating.  Your brain knows how to chew, the food is not hard or unwieldy, etc.  But somehow, you bite your cheek anyway.  Not luck.  A lapse of skill, one time out of thousands.  

The example that I gave was very specific and this did not address it at all. If you make good move but you have no idea why it's good, no skill is involved in making this move at all. Yet it can win the game on the spot.

 

You don't seem to understand what exercised skill is in sports.  Like sharpened reflexes and muscle memory, sometimes its not even a matter of just not knowing why,  its not even knowing when you are doing them.    Magnus himself says he is good at speed chess because his intuition comes from experience and knowledge.    Players "guessing" at moves are still making educated guesses based on their limited abilities and knowledge which is a measure of skill,  not luck.  Human force as the reason for the positive or negative results negates the very definition of the word luck.  You can't determine what is luck, if not only you don't know the definition,  but can't determine its antithesis which is skill.

Yea sometimes its this and sometimes its that, precisely why Im specific with the example. Player "guessing" the correct move because they calculated the following sequence wrong has nothing to do with positive skill related reflexes, experience, any of that. So I would rather stick with relevant arguments if possible.

Kotshmot
CooloutAC wrote:
Kotshmot wrote:
CooloutAC wrote:
Kotshmot wrote:
btickler wrote:
Kotshmot wrote:

Problem in this lack of skill vs luck comparison at the end of your post is that they don't contradict each other at all.

If I make a move that I don't understand at all but it happens to be the best move, I haven't shown any skill but rather lack of it. My opponent also did not see the power of the move and let it happen, therefore its also a display of lack of skill. Skill level of the players hasn't been shown to differ, yet we have a winner. Chance, luck, whatever you want to call it is the decisive element in this scenario, coexisting with lack of skill by two even players. You don't have to design a random factor in the game, luck will always exist everywhere.

Skill and lack of skill are a spectrum, and in human terms, a spectrum with quasi-asymptotes at either end ...it's very rare for perfect skill or complete lack of skill to exist.

On a percentage scale, even if one hypothetical player has 2% skill, the 3% opponent can win the day.  Your statement "if I make a move that I don't understand at all" is also exceedingly rare.  Even a first time player often responds to e4 with e5.  They often move their knight towards the center of the board by preference.  They often move pawns to open lines for pieces, and this becomes apparent when they immediately follow up by moving one of those pieces. 

That's skill.  A very minor amount of skill, borrowed and adapted from other games/endeavors, but non-zero skill nonetheless.

Skill is also a range from move to move, not a discrete value.  There's a powerful gravitational pull towards the center of the range, but sometimes anomalies occur...ergo Karpov resigning in 11 moves one time in his professional career, et al.  Nobody, including probably Karpov, will know exactly what distracted him, but something did.  It was not random chance, and you can't blame it on luck.  

Think of it more like biting your cheek while eating.  Your brain knows how to chew, the food is not hard or unwieldy, etc.  But somehow, you bite your cheek anyway.  Not luck.  A lapse of skill, one time out of thousands.  

The example that I gave was very specific and this did not address it at all. If you make good move but you have no idea why it's good, no skill is involved in making this move at all. Yet it can win the game on the spot.

 

You don't seem to understand what exercised skill is in sports.  Like sharpened reflexes and muscle memory, sometimes its not even a matter of just not knowing why,  its not even knowing when you are doing them.    Magnus himself says he is good at speed chess because his intuition comes from experience and knowledge.    Players "guessing" at moves are still making educated guesses based on their limited abilities and knowledge which is a measure of skill,  not luck.  Human force as the reason for the positive or negative results negates the very definition of the word luck.  You can't determine what is luck, if not only you don't know the definition,  but can't determine its antithesis which is skill.

Yea sometimes its this and sometimes its that, precisely why Im specific with the example. Player "guessing" the correct move because they calculated the following sequence wrong has nothing to do with positive skill related reflexes, experience, any of that. So I would rather stick with relevant arguments if possible.


its extremely relevant to your false premise because those things are considered skill,  even when players don't plan for them.   As btickler also explained.  And as my Magnus quote accentuates with intuition in regards to speed chess.   But my example goes even further then them,  because I'm explaining they are also considered skill even when the player is not even conscious of his actions.

You deny all this because  you are disregarding the very definition of the word where the positive or negative results determined from human force constitutes skill, not luck.

All of those things that go into considering a move exist including intuition, they just do not counter my argument at all. In a classical game you pick your candidate moves based on intuition. Then you calculate the line and see if it actually works. If you miscalculate a line, you will make your choice based on misinformation. If despite your miscalculation anything good follows, you cannot account the following sequence to your skill. Thats just a glaring fact.

DiogenesDue
Kotshmot wrote:

It is a clear distinction but this still doesn't support your stance on this topic and it's a pretty worthless point to mention here in terms of relevancy.

For luck to NOT be involved, a good move can't be based on LACK of skill. This is the whole reason I made the comparison and you apparently missed it.

Apparently you are still on the "luck and skill are opposite ends of the same spectrum" wagon train.  I am not.  I notice you haven't addressed the breakdown of games into low to high skill vs. low to high luck, and how they co-exist because they are not the same thing.  Nor has anyone else.  The reason is simple...it busts the "when we can't see an outcome coming, that is luck" argument. 

Your argument is that lack of skill leaves a vacuum that is ergo filled by "luck", but it is only filled with uncertainty, nothing else, by virtue of chess moves being skill-based decisions.  My argument is that that's a mis-use of the word and that lack of skill is just that...lack of skill.

Kotshmot
btickler wrote:
Kotshmot wrote:

It is a clear distinction but this still doesn't support your stance on this topic and it's a pretty worthless point to mention here in terms of relevancy.

For luck to NOT be involved, a good move can't be based on LACK of skill. This is the whole reason I made the comparison and you apparently missed it.

Apparently you are still on the "luck and skill are opposite ends of the same spectrum" wagon train.  I am not.  I notice you haven't addressed the breakdown of games into low to high skill vs. low to high luck, and how they co-exist because they are not the same thing.  Nor has anyone else.  The reason is simple...it busts the "when we can't see an outcome coming, that is luck" argument. 

Your argument is that lack of skill leaves a vacuum that is ergo filled by "luck", but it is only filled with uncertainty, nothing else, by virtue of chess moves being skill-based decisions.  My argument is that that's a mis-use of the word and that lack of skill is just that...lack of skill.

Yes you did get my argument right.

So going by what you are saying, it's correct to say that "I won the game by my lack of skill." There is no word to use in this context as two players with equal display of skill have still one player winning the game. If skill difference didn't decide the game, I think it's incorrect to just use "lack of skill".

DiogenesDue
CooloutAC wrote:

There is definitely something wrong with you if you are arguing with koshmot that there is no skill in chess,  and then arguing with me that there is.  wow.   I've never seen a worse troll in a gaming community then you.  In fact I don't even think these conversations exist in any gaming community but a chess one lol.  

There's definitely something wrong with you, if you interpret my post that way.  Your comprehension level is in the sewers.

Again,  the only element of random chance  in the game of chess is the choosing of ones colors.  But it is not luck because the colors don't determine success or failure.

As already proven to you, getting white will statistically win you up to 5% more games. So, by force, the random chance becomes "lucky" to one player at that point.  You're still the only person trying to claim that color selection is not a boon for either player.  That's because you are dead wrong.

And I never said that lack of skill means something is luck.   IT all depends on the context,  and we are applying these definitions to gaming specifically.   

I replied to Kotshmot, not you.  More misinterpretation.  

DiogenesDue
Optimissed wrote:That doesn't affect what I'm saying, for various reasons. One is that the opponent's skill level is unknown, so it can't be included in the assessment, except for my subjective assessment, which is that I definitely wouldn't have won without making the error. You seem to be making Coolout's mistake, by assuming that anything that contains some skill cannot be affected at all by luck. You'd have to prove it, systematically and logically but it isn't possible to demonstrate the truth of an ideology, except by demonstrating premises which show the ideology to be real and correctly relating to the real interactions between events in the World.
That isn't the point that I was making. It's possible to invent any number of scenarios, which can get quite ridiculous, although they could really happen. I kept it at one, realistic example. However, I could come up with a dozen situations, which really could occur and which would affect the outcome of a game through the application of chance to processes leading to the result.
You're claiming that chance doesn't exist in anything, aren't you? That's a belief, held by some humans, based on the idea of determinism ... that everything is determined as inevitable outcomes of previous causes. It cannot be proven to be correct, since it is by hindsight only that it is assumed that the events which WERE the effects of causes were the ONLY possible effects which could have been caused.
I disagree with the thesis that guesses are inevitably educated guesses. Basing the idea that luck is made impossible as a result is wishful thinking in the extreme. By that, I mean that it's a completely artificial means of supporting a proposition, which cannot be supported by any other means.

 

You first paragraph essentially confirms that luck is a subjective perception, thus you cannot assess the opponent.  But it doesn't matter whether you can or not.  The skill or luck involved exist with or without your correct or incorrect perception of them.

If you can come up with a dozen examples, I will be happy to debunk them all.  Just be aware that my effort in doing so will be unfairly small compared to your time put in, so...that's your decision.

I am not at all claiming that chance doesn't exist.  You just read my football field goal analogy yesterday, so I find it difficult to believe that you actually think I am claiming that chance events do not occur...rather, you would prefer that other posters think I am claiming that wink.png.  Chance events don't occur *within the deliberations of two entities playing chess*.  It's an easy distinction.  The argument people try to make is that if those deliberations turn out to be faulty, that is due to random chance...but it's due to lack of skill.

DiogenesDue
Optimissed wrote:
btickler wrote:
Optimissed wrote:

You haven't made an argument that luck doesn't exist in chess, however. You've cited a few instances where we can ascribe some level of skill to situations where a player makes a sort of reflex move. There are so many situations where genuine chance or luck, because effectively they're the same thing, can alter a result in a game of chess. Many examples have been presented. Can't quite understand why you and Coolout are fighting.

Disingenuous attempt to join us at the hip.  The reasons are glaringly obvious .

Absolutely. The two of you are making the same arguments, using the same wording and are pretending to fight with one-another.

Nope.  My arguments preceed Coolout's arrival here by over 3 years, as already pointed out on this thread.  Coolout and I disagree on some gigantic points:

- Coolout thinks that skill and luck are opposites.

- Coolout thinks that color selection is not "lucky" because he will not admit white has a first move advantage.

- Coolout thinks that chess players as a rule want to see luck in chess because it helps them feel superior by writing off their losses...which is a ridiculous argument when considered for longer than 3 seconds.

That you cannot see the difference is par for the course.

DiogenesDue
Kotshmot wrote:

Yes you did get my argument right.

So going by what you are saying, it's correct to say that "I won the game by my lack of skill." There is no word to use in this context as two players with equal display of skill have still one player winning the game. If skill difference didn't decide the game, I think it's incorrect to just use "lack of skill".

This comes from the subjective viewpoint that you win or lose games on your own.  You don't.  You are always interacting with your opponent, and if their application of skill is less successful than yours, then yes, you won through "lack of skill" on the part of both players.

krazeechess

yall are overthinking.. the only luck in chess is who moves first which isnt even that huge of a difference at our level

DiogenesDue
Optimissed wrote:

All the same, it's remarkable that you and Coolout are having such a long-running battle and yet your opinions and Coolout's, on this matter of skill and luck, are completely identical.

Except that they aren't, which you didn't even attempt to refute.  Good choice...since there's no refutation.

Since your opinions are identical to one-another's, why do you fight?

That's like asking why Charles Manson and Jon Stewart would fight if they both like ice cream, but one likes chunky monkey and the other likes gelato.

Regarding your attempted refutations of what I'm saying, again, your confidence is extremely high but there's no substance to your answers, which basically consist of dodging this way and that. I'm starting to find it interesting why you react so negatively when I mention my high IQ. I wonder if there's some relevance to this situation, for instance.

Note for later engagements how you just brought up IQ when I didn't say a word.  Moving on...