Lower Rated Players Are Better

Whether I’m playing blitz or rapid, the lower rated players I play are better. Not slightly better, significantly better, specifically on Sundays. This defies logic. It’s not an opinion, it’s a fact. I’ve evaluated over a thousand of my games and lower rated players make fewer mistakes and blunders and more great or brilliant plays. They play at a higher accuracy and are more likely to make 10 top engine moves in a row. Level of play also correlates to the day of week. I win more games than I lose 5 days a week, Wednesday’s I lose slightly more. I lose Sundays, as in every Sunday, bar none. I became curious about this 2 years ago because my rating would climb during the week then plunge on Sunday. It was difficult to track because I was improving and improved play skewed any analysis. Now that my play has plateaued, my opponent’s rating is constant. This pattern is undeniable. Can anybody explain this? I’m reasonably certain I know the answer.

Yes I think it’s generally accepted that your rating would be almost 300 points higher if not for cheaters. A lot of cheaters on here for sure.

Yeah it is out of control and an existential threat that needs to be kept under the rug 🤫

Last month, chess.com banned 70k users for cheating. The months past over 110 k a month. So now, chess.com is banning on an average, 40k less a month. It is way out of control and you cann see they DO NOT CARE ANY MORE!

So... there's 2 ways that could happen.

First is someone playes cheaters frequently enough that it directly lowers their rating. In this case your rating will be very volatile as there will be periods of recovery vs periods you're playing cheaters. For it not to be volatile, chess.com has to be in on it, or the 2nd way...

Second is that even if you never play a cheater, the total bulk of cheating on the site overall has deflated ratings by removing points from the system (they win games, then are banned, so in a sense those points are deleted).

The first case isn't true because ratings aren't volatile and chess.com isn't ensuring an even mixture of cheats and non-cheaters.

The 2nd case isn't true, or rather, isn't relevant in the first place, because deflation impacts everyone equally. Ratings are always a relative measure, so shifting everyone as a group one way or another isn't important other than aesthetics.

For it to be an average, you'd want to take values for multiple months, and weight them by total number of users.

You can't just look at 2 data points and say it's going up or down... if fewer people cheat this month than last that has nothing to do with chess.com's cheat detection.

Self fulfilling prophecy. You expect to lose on Sunday so it affects the way you play.

It's that or mental illness, or you're a troll.

This account is new and already 2300+ Was your last account banned for cheating ?

Does being banned for cheating have anything to do with understanding statistics above a 4th grade level?

The answer to both is "no" by the way.

your nose will grow like pinocchio.

I've been active on the forum for years and I'm pretty well known so... I don't really have much to say.

Sure new kids wouldn't know me, but your account has been open a year so... well anyway, it doesn't matter.

Inb4thelock and all that.

So why the new account?

That question has a really long answer, and I'm not going to post it.

Being suspicious of a new high rated account is normal. You can report me and see if I still exist a few weeks from now. That's how I treat accounts I'm suspicious of.

Right ( wink)

Report me so that a few weeks from now I won't have to suffer your winking.

Thanks.

hello Llama, while I agree with you in general, your first way of explanation has a flaw in the data to support your conclusion.

Idk what you guys are yak’n about but my account has been zeroed out twice, I have no clue why. I’ve played over 30K games on this site. I got reprimanded last week for stalling or quitting games. I NEVER quit games, EVER. I defy them to provide a game in which I did.

I think its just when you are playing a higher rated player, you just focus and you play better. However, when you are playing lower rated player, you are more relaxed resulting in worse play. Just a guess

@booklover834 Not a chance. I have looked at thousands of my games. I lose on Sunday, 106 Sundays in row to be exact. This is outside any statistical anomaly.

If you live in America and you play a game on Sunday evening, you will often play a player who lives in Russia and those dudes are beasts when it comes to Chess.