Magnus Carlsen's "Popularity": By the numbers

There has been much discussion here about whether Magnus Carlsen is a true celebrity by modern international standards.  I believe the consensus is that Carlsen has a long way to go before he can acheive the fame and name recognition of Bobby Fischer and Garry Kasparov.

I posit that this may be impossible due to Carlsen being from Norway, which has a tiny population of only five million.

Conversely, both Fischer and Kasparov were from large nations with populations into the hundreds of millions.  Therefore, both Kasparov and Fischer's inherent national fanbase was literally fifty times (or more) what Carlsen's national fanbase is.

When you take into account that only about 70,000 people are interested members of the "international chess community," and you see that the size of one's country directly control's one's international popularity.

Of course, not every single citizen of Norway is going to be a "Carlsen fanboy".  We should control for those that aren't paying attention to chess, such as the very young, the very old, the fishermen, woodsmen, etc., by halving the national population (which is roughly how one arrives at the potential "workforce" of a nation as well).

Then, the number of domestic Carlsen fans is estimated at 2.5 million.  Add to this the 70,000 in the international chess fanbase, and you arrive at a figure of 2.57 million worldwide Carlsen fans.

This 2.57 million fanbase is of course dwarfed by the easily 100+ million fanbase of Fischer and Kasparov.

Therefore, it stands to reason that structural constraints will keep Carlsen's popularity potential relatively low.

In response to Ziggy, I can attest that Kasparov was a household name in the USA in the 1980's and 1990's.  I was certainly not part of the "chess community" back then (not that I really am now).

Garry Kasparov was a guest on David Letterman about 20 times in the late 1980's.

this is a pitiful thread

Fischer was hardly known outside chess circles before 1972. Then he became known all across America (and perhaps around the world) because he won the World Chess Championship from the Russians. Which, for those of you who are too young to know, were the mortal enemies of America at the time.

Chess players are just not known by the general public. But don't let it bother you. More people play table tennis than do chess and, still, nobody can name many if any famous ping-pongers.

I never said that the general population of the USA knew who Magnus Carlsen was.  I said that the general population of the USA in the 1980's and 90's when I was growing up knew who Kasparov was.  Once again, I did not grow up playing chess nor did any of my friends.  I played baseball in school and was by all accounts a normal Miami kid.  However, I and all my friends knew exactly who Garry Kasparov was.  He was a guest on Late Night with David Letterman about twenty times, and I think on the Tonight Show with Johnny Carson also.

Remember back in those days, those NBC late night shows were a much bigger deal than they are today.

Then the Deep Blue matches in 1996 and 97 were a media sensation.

some people knew who kasparov was  and Fisher was know before he won--There was big lead up to him winning.  The current world champ is not widely known

Ok. I admit. It's me. I am the current world champion.

Yes that's what I'm saying.  Why do you think that not many people know who Carlsen is?  If Carlsen is as telegenic and fashionable as his promoters claim, he should be more well known, than less.

My post attempted to explain this disparity with national population figures.  Carlsen is the first world champion from a small country since Capablanca (Cuba).  Cuba, however, is still much larger than Norway.  Even the city of Havana (great town by the way) is larger than Norway.

I believe richb8888 was saying that people knew about Fischer before he won the 1972 World Championship because of the media attention before the games.

In 1972, The U.S. and The USSR were competing for everything in the world. The USSR pretty much owned chess at the time.

If it were not for this, I am certain Fischer would not have been as well know to non-chess players as he is now.

Now. If Carlesens promoters could get hostilities going with America, then perhaps more people would know him.

Maybe a cod war?  Disagreement over fishing quotas?

Yes, the media loves a story, and there is no big story in chess at the moment.  That's fine; I enjoy the tv in a broom cupboard feel of watching Lawrence Trent and Jan Gustaffsoncommentate on the candidates tournament.  I'm not joking; I find it one of the most entertaining things going. The Ant and Dec of chess.

All I'm saying really is, that with Carlsen hailing from a small country, it is almost impossible for Carlsen to acheive worldwide fame, no matter what he does.  Any amount of fashion modelling, singing, movie roles, etc., never will boost his visibility sufficiently, since Carlsen's built-in "national fan base" is small.

The size of the country you are from has NOTHING to do with your potential to reach worldwide fame.

Bjork achieved worldwide fame and she is from a country with a much-much smaller population than Norway.

When you think about it, there are very-very few things that someone can do that would bring them worldwide fame.

In fact, I would think there are only 2; politics and performance arts (acting/music)

Maybe if Magnus could sing while playing chess, he could reach worldwide fame.

Then how do you explain that Bobby Fischer and Garry Kasparov acheived worldwide fame?

You contradict yourself in your first sentence.

Unless, Chess is performance art.  I would agree with that.

And to Gigi: I totally agree Fischer would be the type to have been found slumped in a hotel room bathtub, dead of a heroin overdose in the 70's.

I'm tired of this carlsen fad. so lame boring and overused. Don't care much for professional blitz either

Carlsen is a cool customer. As long as he keeps winning his fame will spread. His "feud" with Nakamura is also serving both of them well off the board but not necessarily on it.

If you scroll up a bit, you will see my theory why Fischer achieved fame.

I just went back and re-read your original post. Do you really believe that Fischer and Kasparov have 100+ million fans? I am 46 and never met a 'fan' of either until I came to Chess.com late last year.

You said their fame was due to coming from large countries, therefore they have a larger fanbase. Then you equate this to having worldwide fame. What then is your definition of worldwide fame? I live in Thailand, you live in The USA, someone else lives in Europ, we all know someone who has acheived something, does that count as worldwide fame?

Is the definition you are using based on being generally known around the world? Because I can tell you, outside of Western countries, the number of people who would know Fischer and Kasparov is essentially nill.

Don't make the thinking mistake most Westerners, and particularly Americans(and I say this as an American myself) make; that is believing that these things that we find important we automatically apply to the rest of the world.

OP needs to get a girlfriend

Most of them seem to.