Occam's Razor Supports that Hans Niemann did not cheat against Magnus, or in OTB in general.

#81: A better result to hypothesise about is Niemann's FIDE rating. There's a lot of evidence to take into consideration. The best and simplest explanation is the one that best matches that evidence. It's just common sense so there's no need to invoke Occam's Razor unless someone wants to appear clever to people who haven't heard of it before. There's no need to back it up with university degrees unless they're trying to convince others that the logic is less trivial than it is. If they've done the data analysis themselves then I'm interested in credentials but no credentials are required for watching YouTube videos and posting an opinion on these forums.

Only two components are needed to make that cheating method work: a device, and an accomplice.

Stage magicians / mentalists already use this technique - so it's not as implausible as it may seem. The device (and the technique itself) is called a "thumper" - a small, flat device (usually concealed in a coat pocket) that sends discrete vibrations to the stage magician - signals from the accomplice.

This way, the magician/mentalist can appear to have "magical" powers of perception - possessing answers and insights that seem impossible to have.

The only real difficulty here is finding a device that can elude the Garrett SuperWand. (That part of the theory is beyond my knowledge ...)

Though, if (hypothetically) a player truly wanted to, they could purchase the Garrett SuperWand online.

Then they could use it to scan their cheating equipment, to see if their method is detectable or not ...

They didn't say that though. They just said there isn't conclusive evidence that he did. Big difference. 

But his play isn’t extraordinarily perfect. Stock fish gave him a score of like 92% in his game with Magnus. He played well but not impossibly well by any means.

I've made the point many times that many people with lots of credentials, making technical arguments on internet sites to either impress or bully others would be better employed putting their undoubted skills to work as junior management in baked beans factories. I don't mean you because I don't know you and I can't assess your credentials. I have a son with a condensed matter physics PhD who works in engineering and computing, a daughter in law who's a hostpital consultant in acute, infectious diseases and a wife who teaches and practises psychotherapy but I'm the one who shovels the proverbial sh2t for a living. I'm aware that most highly qualified people tend not to verbally make anything of their qualifications but that's just most and there has to be room for differences in personality and intention among people, because otherwise we are not being who we really are.

I have no real opinion on whether Hans was cheating or whether Magnus is a baby. I confess I'm not sufficiently interested to acquire the facts to form an opinion. Cheating does happen and so do false accusations. Here we have someone who already admitted having cheated. Again, it's difficult to make anything of it either way but my GUESS is that he was caught and had to admit it and is hoping that people will refrain from taking that into account. If I had to guess, I'd say he probably cheated but I wouldn't have him executed for it, because I have no proof. I think that Occam's Phazer is an interesting and fun concept and I think it's fine to bring it up and discuss it because, that way, we all learn something.

But from what I understand the broadcast is transmitted with a delay. Would that not make it very difficult ? The cheater getting in to lack of time problem ?

Hey troll king give it a rest. Your 1200+ rating isn't exactly grounds for superiority.

Hey troll king give it a rest. Your 1400+ rating isn't exactly grounds for superiority.

Thats fair. But I also didn't say someone "understood nothing." I.e. Id like to think I'm not trolling anyone. But go ahead, feed the trolls.

Thats fair. But I also didn't say someone "understood nothing." I.e. Id like to think I'm not trolling anyone. But go ahead, feed the tro-

Sorry, I just found it funny that your reasoning was founded upon rating.

Well not entirely. But this guys been making fun of people in the forums for their low ratings. Figured someone should call him out on it.

Yes, the delay helps combat certain cheating methods. Personally, I think the delay should be even longer (an hour, or even 2 hours). But a 30-minute delay is still better than no delay.

This delay was not in effect until recently, though. In the Carlsen-Niemann Sinquefield Cup game, for example, (the game that began this whole controversy) there was no broadcast delay ...

I wish I could go back in time and give occam's mother an abortion so that people in 2022 wouldn't use occam's razor to try to draw any kind of conclusion

Oh no🫣

Ummm, if you knew the origin of the term you would know it would be William's mother...

Some just like to say Occam’s Razor. That’s about the simplest explanation it can be.

Occam's razor would've suggested that a known cheater, who lied about cheating, who has had suspicious rating increase during the same period he cheated over 100 times online, and was accused by a brilliant man who has never accused anyone else ever before, cheated. Don't overcomplicate things.

The amount of coincidence would have been almost overwhelming had he really not cheated OTB.

That said I believe Hans is no longer cheating and he is a capable GM level player. The only way for him to really prove doubters wrong is to continue his meteoric rise in rating and become a top 5 player in two to three years.

I haven't read all the comments, and someone way ahead of me probably already said it, but I think the issue isn't that one particular game. It's the overall situation, many different games. 

When many different games have extraordinary results there are really only three options in my opinion. First, the player really is amazing. They are the best, or near the best that has ever existed. The second option is Divine guidance. Or as Hans called it "ridiculous miracle". 

And the third option, which to many appears to be the most logical and reasonable explanation, is simply outside assistance. Now that I'm becoming familiar with what occams razor is I think cheating is the most logical and uncomplicated answer.