https://www.fide.com/fide/handbook.html?id=172&view=article
Table 8.1b
Table of conversion of difference in rating, D, into scoring probability PD, for the higher, H, and the lower, L, rated player respectively.
D |
PD |
D |
PD |
D |
PD |
D |
PD |
||||
Rtg Dif |
H |
L |
Rtg Dif |
H |
L |
Rtg Dif |
H |
L |
Rtg Dif |
H |
L |
0-3 |
.50 |
.50 |
92-98 |
.63 |
.37 |
198-206 |
.76 |
.24 |
345-357 |
.89 |
.11 |
4-10 |
.51 |
.49 |
99-106 |
.64 |
.36 |
207-215 |
.77 |
.23 |
358-374 |
.90 |
.10 |
11-17 |
.52 |
.48 |
107-113 |
.65 |
.35 |
216-225 |
.78 |
.22 |
375-391 |
.91 |
.09 |
18-25 |
.53 |
.47 |
114-121 |
.66 |
.34 |
226-235 |
.79 |
.21 |
392-411 |
.92 |
.08 |
26-32 |
.54 |
.46 |
122-129 |
.67 |
.33 |
236-245 |
.80 |
.20 |
412-432 |
.93 |
.07 |
33-39 |
.55 |
.45 |
130-137 |
.68 |
.32 |
246-256 |
.81 |
.19 |
433-456 |
.94 |
.06 |
40-46 |
.56 |
.44 |
138-145 |
.69 |
.31 |
257-267 |
.82 |
.18 |
457-484 |
.95 |
.05 |
47-53 |
.57 |
.43 |
146-153 |
.70 |
.30 |
268-278 |
.83 |
.17 |
485-517 |
.96 |
.04 |
54-61 |
.58 |
.42 |
154-162 |
.71 |
.29 |
279-290 |
.84 |
.16 |
518-559 |
.97 |
.03 |
62-68 |
.59 |
.41 |
163-170 |
.72 |
.28 |
291-302 |
.85 |
.15 |
560-619 |
.98 |
.02 |
69-76 |
.60 |
.40 |
171-179 |
.73 |
.27 |
303-315 |
.86 |
.14 |
620-735 |
.99 |
.01 |
77-83 |
.61 |
.39 |
180-188 |
.74 |
.26 |
316-328 |
.87 |
.13 |
> 735 |
1.0 |
.00 |
84-91 |
.62 |
.38 |
189-197 |
.75 |
.25 |
329-344 |
.88 |
.12 |
|
|
I am trying to find or develop a guide for predicting the probable outcome of a game given a certain difference in ratings between the players. For example, I have a vague recollection that a difference of something like 150 points will result in a win for the higher ranking player about 80% of the time. I would like to know how to predict the probably outcome for other differences. Does anyone know of a source of information about that, maybe a table, or a formula, or a guide of some kind?