Ratings Fluctuation

Good afternoon,

I am wondering the opinion of players, from weak to strong, about rating fluctuations.

I have several thousand games, and my rating is usually around 1250.  It has occassionaly dipped below 1175 or above 1325, but usually it comes back toward 1250 pretty quick.

In that time, I have had win and loss streaks of 9 several times.

When I am on a good run, getting up toward 1350, I feel strong--like I will see combinations and *bam* I win again!

When I am on a bad run, getting down toward 1150, I feel weak--like how in the heck did I hang *another* freaking piece.

The expected rating of a person winning 10 straight games against ~1200 level opposition is something above 1700 and the performance rating for losing 10 straight is something below 700 -- a swing of about 1,000 points.

So...if others have similar experience...how much of that do you think is just a run of good or bad luck, and how much do you think is actual difference between your best play and your worst play?

IMO the average rating is that when you are maximally relaxed and just play for fun. If you are focused, you can play better than average rating, but no more than 100-200 rating points.

I've noticed that my rating on this site will swing +/- 150 points or so over the course of several months. I think the variation is almost all related to how focused I am, how much sleep I've had, and other life factors that influence my playing ability.  

Rating fluctuations are inevitable and I think reflect your thinking process more than anything.  on the other hand; improvement is Possible.  I truly believe this!  but such improvement (for many) will not occur without a good study program.

you have to slowly be understanding more about the game and working through your tactical and endgame weaknesses.

as for the Amount of fluctuation.  you guys that blitz incessantly tolerate a lot more losing that I do.  after a bad game or so- I want to understand why I'm losing- and brush up on my tactics.

and I don't like the "gambling" feeling of trying to win just to get back to where I was.

instead I'd rather call it a bad day. "cash in my chips" and try again when I feel more focused an positive.  

RCMmorea : I suppose you play mainly blitz ? Then you must play a lot of games, like a hundred each months. Then probability science says it's just very likely you will have long winning streaks. In fact, it is a basic case of random walk, where you will fluctuate around your average rating (1250), but can still make wild fluctuations. So the answer to your question is just large numbers law.

Of course, being tired, depressed, and drunk can significantly increase the probability of a long loosing streak.

I play with same level players or nearly 100+ than me. If I can match with them and be competitive, my ratings is virtually same .

In the past two months, I have been over 1900 and under 1700 in blitz. I have lost a dozen games in a row and won nearly that many. I have often dropped 150+ rating in an afternoon but never go up as fast. What I can lose in a day usually takes several days or even weeks to regain.

When I think about my rating during the game, it goes down. When I enjoy the struggle for an advantage, my rating rises.

My USCF OTB in the past three years fell from 1982 to 1847 and rose back over 1900 before falling just below again. In my city at my level, a single tournament loss usually results in lowering my rating. 

I feel like I'll suddenly jump up 100 points. I see more, realize more, learned a ton. And then revert back for a bit before jumping 150 and going back down and then having an average of 50 higher. 

No evidence to back this, but it feels like i've learned some, and then brain is rewiring and settling that new learning, and in that process I temporarily lose ability. Once completed, I kick back. That's genuinely what it feels like. It's strange

In my opinion, one of the main differences between titled players and random goombahs like us is consistency. Titled players aren't all THAT much stronger than we are when we're really on form... but they tend to be far more consistent than we are.

Hm, good point^

I have the exact same experience and then I realized something.

1. Play the computer on the rating of your choice If you can beat it 3x in a row up the rating until you can't anymore. 

2. Play your rated games and analyze them via the game report button and walk through the game. Try to understand what you did right.  

3. Keep playing rated opponents until you notice you start blundering pieces. STOP playing

4. Go Play the computer at the level where you last beat it 3x in a row. If you can't beat it 3x in a row then stop playing rated opponents. You are now in your low performance phase.

5. Learn lessons and relearn lessons then replay the computer. If you can not beat the computer 3x in a row do NOT play a rated match or you will lose all of the progress you made. Do NOT heed my words and you will be the definition of insanity.

6. It does not matter how long you are in low phase do not play rated games without beating the computer 3x in a row. Use this time to learn lessons relearn lessons watch chess games on youtube and practice practice practice. Low phase is perfect for developing solid foundations. 

7. Lastly try and understand what chess accuracy is in your own words. The more accurate you are to understanding the essence of chess accuracy and understand how to move your pieces in lieu with this you will no doubt rise in rank. Learn what is accuracy,  why it is important and how you move your pieces with respect to accuracy. Gaining a solid understanding of what chess accuracy is will keep your mind focused during game play, and will help you to pull of some very nice moves. 

I usually do good for a week gain like 100-200 points then plummet a week or two later. 

With this strategy in 1 month I climbed from 900 rating to 1014. Now I am in low phase so I am focusing on learning and playing the computer. When I can beat the computer 3x in a row I will know I am ready to play a rated game. Good luck and Good games!

I still consider myself a beginner. My fluctuations are very wild . Around 200 points or more. I have been as low as 854 and as high as 1149. Many times I have somehow beaten people rated couple hundred points above me (people whom were around 1300 or so) and at others I get my clock cleaned from people 800 rated.

  I have pin pointed the factor/s. Lack of sleep. Negative and Positive mood is probably the biggest factor. When I had a rough day and play chess I could lose to anyone. When I have a great day and things are going fantastic with life, I feel like I can see more of the board better  and process moves much better and faster.  Positivity I think plays a huge role in playing a chess game.  You must be relaxed too. If you just play to have fun you're probably going to be alot better.

Don't ask about rating fluctuations.

honestly at that level ELO playing correspondence, you probably run into a decent amount of cheaters blueemu, so I wouldn't get too down on yourself about it.