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Reason why all matches of this WCC will be drawn just like the previous match

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kartikeya_tiwari

Ok so the answer is very simple, the better player(which is carlsen by quite a big margin) has absolutely NO NEED to win the classical portion. Magnus and Ian both know that nepo is no match for magnus in rapid and that's why magnus is under no real pressure to create chances and since he is the only one who can possibly win(him being way better than nepo) and he will not take any chances himself(like he did against karjakin and lost), the WCC match is 100% guaranteed to be a 14 game draw fest unless Ian explodes in the head and makes huge mistakes, letting magnus take the lead.



Really deciding the classical champion via rapid games is stupid, make it a sudden death format where if no wins are obtained in classical format, they will play an infinite number of matches till SOMEONE wins and as soon as someone wins, it will be over. Ofcourse it will be unlucky for the guy who gets black pieces and loses in the sudden death phase but it's a lot better than this 14 game drawfest where there is ZERO INCENTIVE for the better player to win

EDIT - solution 2, if the match is tied in classical then make the WCC seat vacant. For example for the inevitable 14 game draw which is about to happen, when it does happen magnus would lose his title but nepo won't gain the title and the next champion would be decided by a separate event. This will give some incentive to magnus to go for the win

JustARandomPatzer

Wasn't the only time Magnus took a draw in a better position in the final game of the match against Caruana?

llama47
JustARandomPatzer wrote:

Wasn't the only time Magnus took a draw in a better position in the final game of the match against Caruana?

Yeah, it's silly to suggest he wont try winning in the classical portion.

Arnaut10

Game 2 shows us that they are both willing to win. Even if we get 14 draws, it doesn't have to be bad just because they are draws. We have an example for that from yesterday when game was exciting but still a draw. People complain when one of two of them makes a mistake and they also want a decisive result. Its not possible to win with perfect play from your opponent.

AussieMatey

Nepo is an excellent rapid player and could easily beat Carlo if it comes to that.

 

tygxc

"magnus is under no real pressure to create chances"
++ We saw 2 games of fighting chess, with Carlsen willing to go down a pawn in game 1 and a pawn and an exchange in game 2. Carlsen tries to win in classical even at risk of losing.

"they will play an infinite number of matches till SOMEONE wins and as soon as someone wins, it will be over" ++ We know from Karpov-Kasparov that this does not work.

"if the match is tied in classical then make the WCC seat vacant"
++ This makes no sense. Carlsen ousted the sitting World Champion Anand. Challengers Karjakin and Caruana failed to overthrow Carlsen, so Carlsen is still the worthy World Champion.

kartikeya_tiwari
JustARandomPatzer wrote:

Wasn't the only time Magnus took a draw in a better position in the final game of the match against Caruana?

Magnus never pushed in any game in that match. Yesterday in press conference carlsen himself said that if he was in a must win situation he would not have played Qg4.

The issue is that magnus does not even need to train classical to become the classical world champion. He is a god tier rapid player and that ALONE is enough to make him the classical world champion.

Mark my words, even if magnus gets an advantage in any game, even +1 or +1.5, he won't push if there is even a slight chance of danger. He would just be like "well i know im gonna beat this dude in rapid, so my goal is to make all draws"

Magnus plays for all draws, nepo isn't good enough to outplay magnus, result? 14 draws incoming, guaranteed

EnCroissantCheckmate

14 classical draws, 4 rapid draws, 10 blitz draws, and 1 armageddon draw

2 down, 27 to go!

kartikeya_tiwari
tygxc wrote:

"magnus is under no real pressure to create chances"
++ We saw 2 games of fighting chess, with Carlsen willing to go down a pawn in game 1 and a pawn and an exchange in game 2. Carlsen tries to win in classical even at risk of losing.

"they will play an infinite number of matches till SOMEONE wins and as soon as someone wins, it will be over" ++ We know from Karpov-Kasparov that this does not work.

"if the match is tied in classical then make the WCC seat vacant"
++ This makes no sense. Carlsen ousted the sitting World Champion Anand. Challengers Karjakin and Caruana failed to overthrow Carlsen, so Carlsen is still the worthy World Champion.

What are u saying? magnus himself said that the "pawn sacrifice" was forced since he missed Nc5. He never intended to do it. However magnus did say that "if i was in a must win situation, i won't have played Qg4"... 

Magnus is playing to draw 14 games since he is guaranteed a win in rapids. Nepo is not even close to being good enough to beat magnus in classical.. the result is 14 draws. 

World chess championship is a giant joke. It is 100% decided on a player's rapid strength now.

kartikeya_tiwari
KnightAttack1567 wrote:

14 classical draws, 4 rapid draws, 10 blitz draws, and 1 armageddon draw

2 down, 27 to go!

It's very difficult, even borderline impossible, to draw 4 rapid games. It won't be short of a miracle for nepo if he manages to draw magnus in rapid

kartikeya_tiwari
llama47 wrote:
JustARandomPatzer wrote:

Wasn't the only time Magnus took a draw in a better position in the final game of the match against Caruana?

Yeah, it's silly to suggest he wont try winning in the classical portion.

he won't. Going for a win also comes with a risk of losing against a 2750 player(one can't just steamroll the other person in classical at that rating). Magnus knows very well that his win in rapid portion is guaranteed, so do the math. What would be silly is for magnus to NOT go for 14 draws, that would be extremely stupid.

Not magnus's fault but the fault of this format. It makes u the classical world champion based on your rapid strength, can't get more stupid than this

llama47

Well, it's not just conjecture, because we saw 2 games where Carlsen wasn't playing for a draw.

In fact there wasn't much playing for a draw in the previous match either. The Karjakin match was the bad one in that regard.

And anyway, even low level tournament players know that playing for a result (including playing for a draw) is bad. They're not trying to win or draw, they're trying to get playable positions with chances and then make good moves from there.

kartikeya_tiwari
llama47 wrote:

Well, it's not just conjecture, because we saw 2 games where Carlsen wasn't playing for a draw.

In fact there wasn't much playing for a draw in the previous match either. The Karjakin match was the bad one in that regard.

And anyway, even low level tournament players know that playing for a result (including playing for a draw) is bad. They're not trying to win or draw, they're trying to get playable positions with chances and then make good moves from there.

karjakin game was more exciting since karjakin drew first blood and had he found the forced draw in game 10 he would have won the championship, so it atleast had some twists and turns in it.

This match will just be so predictable. Magnus will never ever push, nepo is not good enough to push, result would be 14 draws and magnus(once again) would win in rapid.

I said it, screenshot this, this is the future

llama47

Karjakin was boring because, first of all, he was barely a top 10 player. Even if he managed to beat Carlsen he would be a fake world champ, just like Euwe.

Secondly it was boring because Karjakin was playing stale boring chess. He only accidentally won a game because Carlsen pressed too hard... and even after being gifted a game, he still managed to lose the match (thank god).

llama47
kartikeya_tiwari wrote:


I said it, screenshot this, this is the future

Easily 9 out of 10 things that I've read people saying about the match are nonsense.

(To be fair, I've read comments in places like youtube and chessbomb chat)

Which is too bad, because I suppose a GM would say 9 out of 10 things I say are also nonsense.

Oh well.

But anyway, it's safe to assume I disagree with everyone, all the time tongue.png

kartikeya_tiwari
llama47 wrote:

Karjakin was boring because, first of all, he was barely a top 10 player. Even if he managed to beat Carlsen he would be a fake world champ, just like Euwe.

Secondly it was boring because Karjakin was playing stale boring chess. He only accidentally won a game because Carlsen pressed too hard... and even after being gifted a game, he still managed to lose the match (thank god).

lol... if karjakin was "barely" a top 10 player then maybe all the real and better challengers should have won the candidates tournament? why didn't your real better players like aronian and caruana smash the candidates? karjakin deserved the spot even though he is way weaker than carlsen like every single challenger is (including caruana)

Next, karjakin was playing "boring" chess simply because magnus is just way too good for literally anyone else. If u try to press vs him u are guaranteed to lose, that's why karjakin, caruana, nepo everyone would play stale since u cannot beat magnus by playing exciting chess, he is simply way too strong.

As i have said, the only way magnus will lose is if he has to press and with the current rules it will "never" happen. Magnus never needs to press since he is guaranteed a title win in case of a tie. That's why magnus mentioned ding as his strongest competitor since ding is literally the only person who can maybe, barely manage to challenge carlsen in rapid.

This is a weird situation right here. If u tie all games with carlsen u are guaranteed to lose, if u press hard u are guaranteed to lose, u will never outplay him positionally. The only shot is if magnus himself pushes which he never needs to do since his win is guaranteed in case of a tie.

kartikeya_tiwari

This is why it's literally impossible for the current crop of players to take the crown from magnus as long as magnus stays active. The only title change hope is firouza since he hasn't reached his stable rating yet and we don't know what his stable rating is. However his rapid rating leaves a lot to be desired but as i said, he is just growing and no one knows his stable rating

llama47
kartikeya_tiwari wrote:

lol... if karjakin was "barely" a top 10 player then maybe all the real and better challengers should have won the candidates tournament?

That's not a question, no need for a question mark.

Tournaments are a bit of a lottery. Your final placement depends both on your performance and the performance of others. For example in Carlsen's 2013 Candidates Tournament it was a bit annoying how Ivanchuk played solidly against Carlsen, but played the freaking Budapest gambit against Aronian and lost, (after which Aronian was a half point behind Carlsen with 2 rounds to go).

Anyway, soon enough Karjakin dropped out of the top 10 where he's stayed ever since. So obviously he would not have been a real world champion.

tygxc

#18
Wait and see if we get decisive classical games or not.
Otherwise FIDE might consider 90|30 time control in the future.
#19
That is right.
Tournaments are won by winning against weaker players and not losing against the stronger players.

blueemu

The play in the first two match games was exciting and original. To categorize them as "just two more draws" is a superficial, beginner's mistake.