I haven't deeply analysed this position, but a3(intending b4), Rb1(intending b4) and Qd2(solidifying and waiting to see which way the wind blows) seem to be the main choices.
Another plan could be the "piece improvement power", playing moves like Nb3 c5, Nxc5(after Black takes with dxc5), Qf2, Rd1 and suddenly the rook's on a half-open file, the knight is in a good position, the queen and bishop are staring at the queenside and the a and b pawns are itching to jump forward.
Qd2 is probably the best move.
Yeah, these positions can be tough as far as planning is concerned, and b4 probably looks like a natural idea on the surface. In general (because sometimes b4 can come in handy) I would advise against it. The first way I go about this reasoning is based on what b4 can and can't achieve:
Let's say that after you played a3 and b4, your weaknesses made could never be taken advantage of. Even then, you're not threatening a whole lot -- b5 could just be met by ...Ne5, so the pawns are just sitting there, hoping that they don't become weak later. Perhaps they won't, but you never know, and it's something white will have to think about for the rest of the game, because those pawns can't move back. So I would conclude that best case scenario, white's position remains as good as it was before, but no better, as a result of b4.
As a worst case scenario, b4 can lead to all sorts of tricks on the long diagonal -- once b4 is played, the c3 knight has little protection and is pinned to the a1 rook, so white's knight on d4 will feel like if it moves, black'll unleash ideas like ...Nxe4, or just ...Nd7 when d7 is cleared, opening the g7 bishop. Moreover, ideas like ...a5, ...c6 (after say black plays ...Nxd4), ...a4 and ...Qa5 -- all of these ideas are at black's disposal to put pressure on the queenside.
Also keep in mind that white is giving black a lot of free moves as he prepares b4, time black might use to strike in the center.
To be fair, I don't think b4 is horrible for white; I just don't think it's a great plan, and its drawbacks probably outweigh the good sides. However, if you really feel that black will be cramped by b4, in some cases it might prove useful.
i wouldn't mind playing around with the Nd5 idea
Excellent post by Estragon. I would add that there are certain moves in the position that aren't effective now, e.g., g4 or b4, that might become effective later on depending on what black does. For example, if you managed to get rooks on c1 and d1, the queen on d2, the pawn on a3, meanwhile black has been fiddling with his position with (bad) moves like ...Bc8, ...Nd7, trying to go to c5, the move b4 for white would suddenly become more relevant (not to say b4 would be good, but these are the kinds of things to look out for), as it would make black's ...Nd7 move look silly and white would be better developed for the move. Alternatively, or perhaps in combination, if black messes around on the queenside too much, he might leave his kingside too open, allowing for ideas like g4 and h4-h5 after all -- again, this needs to be timed well.
And finally, of course, a central move like e5, Nd5, or even c5, could also be good if black has moved too many pieces away from the center.
A computer will probably say the position is fine for black, and honestly, it pretty much is, but that doesn't mean black can just move back and forth -- he has to be very wary that he is not giving white an extra opportunity like the possibilities mentioned above. This is indeed a position for patient players.
Thanks for all the help.
Is a plan involving b2-b4 and queenside expansion good for white in this position?