a player rated below 2000 winning 7 tournaments in a row agaisnt a field in the Class B-CM.
the great odds ?
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A banana morphing into a carrot that kills the prime minister.
Don't laugh:
It could happen.
Also:
a 1000 rated player winning a tournament filled with Class B and A players.
The following position:
chessmaster102 wrote:
What are the odds ....
of a expert winning a tournament with 2500-2600 rated players
of a Class C player beating a IM in match play
of a 900 playerbeating a expert
add some stuff you think to be less than 10% possible.
Effectively infinitely impossible in all cases.
200 player drawing a game with a 1000 rated player.
Davidjordan wrote:
a player rated below 2000 winning 7 tournaments in a row agaisnt a field in the Class B-CM.
make that Class B -LM.
Given an infinite amount of time, all those things would happen sooner or later, but it would take trillions of years on the average for them to occur. Given an infinite amount of tries, sooner or later I would be able to beat the world champion ten games in a row by accidentally making the right moves. So it's possible. But the odds of it happening at any one attempt are so vanishingly small, you might as well say it's impossible.
woodshover wrote:
Given an infinite amount of time, all those things would happen sooner or later, but it would take trillions of years on the average for them to occur. Given an infinite amount of tries, sooner or later I would be able to beat the world champion ten games in a row by accidentally making the right moves. So it's possible. But the odds of it happening at any one attempt are so vanishingly small, you might as well say it's impossible.
+1
woodshover wrote:
Given an infinite amount of time, all those things would happen sooner or later, but it would take trillions of years on the average for them to occur. Given an infinite amount of tries, sooner or later I would be able to beat the world champion ten games in a row by accidentally making the right moves. So it's possible. But the odds of it happening at any one attempt are so vanishingly small, you might as well say it's impossible.
This presumes that move selection by a player is predominantly random. But that isn't true. While there may be a random factor to some degree, there is an inherent logic to the process that precludes the results suggested.
Regardless of the amount of time, the above results are not going to occure because move selection is not predominantly a random thing.
But there's still some randomness in the non-random moves and given an infinite amount of time they will eventually line up in such a way to beat a WC, or to even beat a WC in multiple sequential games.
I was at a tourney once where a 900 beat a 2100. The opening moves were 1 e4 Nf6 2 e5 Ng4 (!)...and the expert let the guy take his move back, then went on to lose (!!). Talk about feelings of regret...
Then there was the time Joe Bradford won the US Open.
By and large, though: "less than 10% possible"? LOL Get real. 
TheGrobe wrote:
But there's still some randomness in the non-random moves and given an infinite amount of time they will eventually line up in such a way to beat a WC, or to even beat a WC in multiple sequential games.
I'm skeptical of this. Some things are (probably) impossible, no matter how much time you give them.
TheGrobe wrote:
But there's still some randomness in the non-random moves and given an infinite amount of time they will eventually line up in such a way to beat a WC, or to even beat a WC in multiple sequential games.
I really don't think so. What is random is how the GM will evaluate the position and choose between various continuations, not if the GM will happen to hang 3 pieces to allow the class D player a chance to win. Some happenings just aren't a product of randomness at all.
Now, what might happen given enough time is that the GM will get bored playing the same patzer over and over again and toss a game just to get it over with -- but that's not really the same thing ;)
AndyClifton wrote:
TheGrobe wrote:
But there's still some randomness in the non-random moves and given an infinite amount of time they will eventually line up in such a way to beat a WC, or to even beat a WC in multiple sequential games.
I'm skeptical of this. Some things are (probably) impossible, no matter how much time you give them.
Given an infinit amout of time it is NOT impossible. It is not impossible to accidently make the right move even if the WC doesn't play randomly.
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What are the odds ....
of a expert winning a tournament with 2500-2600 rated players
of a Class C player beating a IM in match play
of a 900 playerbeating a expert
add some stuff you think to be less than 10% possible.