Well, I definitely agree with your thinking. You're correct, the Alien Gambit, to my knowledge, has a high success rate because it makes a position where the opponent is more likely to blunder. As I covered in my blog post, some gambits are more risk than anything. So, there is nothing forced and the win rate using the gambit absolutely gets lower the higher-rated your opponent is. Stockfish doesn't take into account risk, only reward, so for something for Stockfish to register as an okay move, there has to be a 100% chance of success. You won't win with it against IM's or GM's, but maybe a 200-600 -rated player would fall for it.
The wrong opening
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I think the Alien gambit opening is a wrong opening because it causes us to lose the knight and stockfish also considers it a wrong move but many people use it and if they win it is not because the Alien gambit is too strong but because the opponent is too weak and I think if you want to play a logical and good game, I think everyone should consider playing openings like the queen gambit, Italy, or India
This is just my opinion. If there are any mistakes, I hope everyone will forgive me and give me feedback.Thanks for reading