Variance isn't real in the sense that when both players are doing their best it's either 100% or 0%. There's none of this uncertainty. Carsen will beat an 1800 rated player 100% of the time.
But humans are humans. They do things like play under the influence of drugs, or play when they don't care about the result and play ridiculous moves. Stuff like that.
So if a low rated player beat a top GM in an online game no one important would care. Sure maybe some non-players would care, but it wouldn't be viral or important, not to the chess playing community.
I was wondering if there have been cases where some Top GM has ever lost to a much weaker player. I don't mean an amateur player with a rating of 2400, but amateur players with a rating of less than 1800.
Some GMs regularly play on the internet and sometimes against very weak players (Carlsen has played against guys with 1300 rating).
Has it ever happened? And if not, what do you think would happen if let's say a 1500 by some sort of miracle defeats Carlsen on an online game? The 1500 guy would go viral? Would he become a sensation? Nothing would actually happen? What do you think?