True or False Chess is a Draw with Best Play from Both Sides

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USArmyParatrooper
GOLDLORD230 wrote:

False, cause white always starts. They get the first move and the first chance to advance.

 To definitively say it’s false you need to go beyond the first move being an advantage for players (humans and computers alike), who  have not solved the game.

 

 To say White wins a perfectly played game, is to say Black starts off trapped in a mating net before the first piece has ever been moved. 

 

 I find that extraordinarily unlikely. 

lfPatriotGames
drmrboss wrote:

, omg you need to learn chess database first, the lower the rating, the higher win/loss! The higher the rating, the more draw. 3300+ engines like SF/Komodo/Houdini  in standard 90mins/game in std pc have 90-95% draw rate now. The draw rate will be higher when the rating are even higher. In ten years, there will be 95-98% draw rate and so on. Some computer experts believe that at rating between 4000- 5000, there will be  100% draw and engines will reach perfection.(solved)

I didn't say the draw rate is higher because everyone knows most games at the highest level end in draws. I said the percentage of white wins is higher. The higher the rating, the higher the percentage of white wins. At the very highest level is where white wins the most. We aren't talking about low rated games where huge mistakes results in large swings in wins for either side. So both the rate of draws is going up AND the rate at which white wins is going up too. To me that says it's far to early to be speculating about what can be forced from the start of the game. I understand there is a belief that white can always win and there is another belief that its a draw. But both beliefs are based on something no one has ever seen, and that is "best play" from the start of the game. As long as humans and machines still make mistakes best play is probably a long way off.

drmrboss

 Really upset with too much low rated people and too little chess knowledgeable people , i am out!

EndgameEnthusiast2357

I think the tempo argument is invalid, because the material is equal, so any attack white has, black should be able to defend. Consider a queen vs queen endgame, whoever moves 1st doesn't really matter, it's still a dead draw!

ponz111
lfPatriotGames wrote:
drmrboss wrote:

, omg you need to learn chess database first, the lower the rating, the higher win/loss! The higher the rating, the more draw. 3300+ engines like SF/Komodo/Houdini  in standard 90mins/game in std pc have 90-95% draw rate now. The draw rate will be higher when the rating are even higher. In ten years, there will be 95-98% draw rate and so on. Some computer experts believe that at rating between 4000- 5000, there will be  100% draw and engines will reach perfection.(solved)

I didn't say the draw rate is higher because everyone knows most games at the highest level end in draws. I said the percentage of white wins is higher. The higher the rating, the higher the percentage of white wins. At the very highest level is where white wins the most. We aren't talking about low rated games where huge mistakes results in large swings in wins for either side. So both the rate of draws is going up AND the rate at which white wins is going up too. To me that says it's far to early to be speculating about what can be forced from the start of the game. I understand there is a belief that white can always win and there is another belief that its a draw. But both beliefs are based on something no one has ever seen, and that is "best play" from the start of the game. As long as humans and machines still make mistakes best play is probably a long way off.

The rate of draws in high rated games is going up from 90% to 95% to 98% and eventually higher. The rate of White wins will be eventually limited by the rate of draws. [and eventually limited to zero or near zero]

White wins ONLY if Black has made a mistake.

In the history of chess with tens of billions of games played--not 1 out of all of those games has White won without an error from Black. 

HorribleTomato

True or false basketball is a draw with best play from both sides

True or false baseball is a draw with best play from both sides

True or false football is a draw with best play from both sides

True or false volleyball is a draw with best play from both sides

All true.

ponz111

that is horrible. Smile

HorribleTomato

yet totally true!

harrybloggs

 I think Chess is psychologically damaging; they give prizes for destroying a person mentally; it is an offensive game, no matter which way you look at it.

harrybloggs

Why do I play it then?

Because my mind distracts me.

lfPatriotGames
ponz111 wrote:
lfPatriotGames wrote:
drmrboss wrote:

, omg you need to learn chess database first, the lower the rating, the higher win/loss! The higher the rating, the more draw. 3300+ engines like SF/Komodo/Houdini  in standard 90mins/game in std pc have 90-95% draw rate now. The draw rate will be higher when the rating are even higher. In ten years, there will be 95-98% draw rate and so on. Some computer experts believe that at rating between 4000- 5000, there will be  100% draw and engines will reach perfection.(solved)

I didn't say the draw rate is higher because everyone knows most games at the highest level end in draws. I said the percentage of white wins is higher. The higher the rating, the higher the percentage of white wins. At the very highest level is where white wins the most. We aren't talking about low rated games where huge mistakes results in large swings in wins for either side. So both the rate of draws is going up AND the rate at which white wins is going up too. To me that says it's far to early to be speculating about what can be forced from the start of the game. I understand there is a belief that white can always win and there is another belief that its a draw. But both beliefs are based on something no one has ever seen, and that is "best play" from the start of the game. As long as humans and machines still make mistakes best play is probably a long way off.

The rate of draws in high rated games is going up from 90% to 95% to 98% and eventually higher. The rate of White wins will be eventually limited by the rate of draws. [and eventually limited to zero or near zero]

White wins ONLY if Black has made a mistake.

In the history of chess with tens of billions of games played--not 1 out of all of those games has White won without an error from Black. 

I dont doubt that any of that is possible. But what is also happening is the rate of white winning is going up. Historically from about 53% to now about 60% at the very highest levels. The rate of white wins could be eventually limited by the number of draws. But what is also possible is the rate of draws may be limited by the number of white wins. We just dont know yet because none of us have ever witnessed or experienced "best play".

SmyslovFan
lfPatriotGames wrote:
...

I dont doubt that any of that is possible. But what is also happening is the rate of white winning is going up. Historically from about 53% to now about 60% at the very highest levels. The rate of white wins could be eventually limited by the number of draws. But what is also possible is the rate of draws may be limited by the number of white wins. We just dont know yet because none of us have ever witnessed or experienced "best play".

There is so much that is factually wrong in this statement it's hard to know where to begin. 

Let me start with the obvious. Yes, we have experienced "best play" in numerous games. There have been probably thousands of games that have been played without any error, and the game ended in a draw rather quickly. 

Also, we now know, beyond any doubt, what "best play" looks like in every 6-piece endgame and almost every 7-piece endgame. 

 

As far as the winning % stats go, anyone can look those up to see what the facts reveal. 

Loudcolor

False; since there are only two players, the proper word is "better" play between the two, as "best" implies more than two.  Perhaps you mean "optimal" play which still does not necessary end in draw.

lfPatriotGames
SmyslovFan wrote:
lfPatriotGames wrote:
...

I dont doubt that any of that is possible. But what is also happening is the rate of white winning is going up. Historically from about 53% to now about 60% at the very highest levels. The rate of white wins could be eventually limited by the number of draws. But what is also possible is the rate of draws may be limited by the number of white wins. We just dont know yet because none of us have ever witnessed or experienced "best play".

There is so much that is factually wrong in this statement it's hard to know where to begin. 

Let me start with the obvious. Yes, we have experienced "best play" in numerous games. There have been probably thousands of games that have been played without any error, and the game ended in a draw rather quickly. 

Also, we now know, beyond any doubt, what "best play" looks like in every 6-piece endgame and almost every 7-piece endgame. 

 

As far as the winning % stats go, anyone can look those up to see what the facts reveal. 

In your opinion it's factually wrong, but it's just your opinion. Someone elses opinion could be that it's factually right. As I said, in endgames I'm sure there are many cases where mistakes can be made by either side and still have a draw. But we were talking about forcing something from the beginning of the game where there are a lot more possible moves. There is a difference, probably a big difference, between a 6 or 7 piece endgame and a 32 piece game from the start. Firstcomment is right, maybe you meant better play, not best play. None of us have ever seen "best play" from the beginning of a game. If we had, this topic wouldn't exist because chess would be solved and we would know the answer.

SmyslovFan

There really are people who believe facts are opinions.

lfPatriotGames

And there really are people who believe opinions are facts. Takes all kinds I guess.

SmyslovFan
lfPatriotGames wrote:

And there really are people who believe opinions are facts. Takes all kinds I guess.

Ok.  Using ChessBase's 2018 database:

 

When both players are rated +2200 the ratio for White wins-Black Wins-Draws is: 34.3 25.1 40.6%

When both players are rated +2400, the ratio is: 29.4/18.3/52.3

When both players are rated +2750, the ratio is: 28.6/18.7/52.7

In general, as ratings go up, draw rates go up. This is a fact. It's not an opinion. It's something that can be verified.  

 

Added: White's win rate hasn't changed in any statistical meaningful way when comparing rating groups from 1980-1999 and 2000-2018. In games played between GMs rated 2600-2800, White won just over 55% (wins and .5 draws) in the first period, and just over 55% from 2000-2018. There's been no meaningful change over time.

Hegamania

Chess is like a war. Of course you waiting for the enemy to make a mistake, or either force him to be weaker so that it doesn't matter if he play correct he is overmatched. 

DavidHHH

The statement proves itself and requires no analysis. if a move led to a loss then it was a mistake. That's why nobody will find a game which ended up in a loss and had no mistakes.

EndgameEnthusiast2357

Winning Stats are irrelevant here. Only Perfectly played games can be used, not GM games