True or False Chess is a Draw with Best Play from Both Sides

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Prometheus_Fuschs
Ziryab escribió:
Prometheus_Fuschs wrote:
ponz111 escribió:

Prometheus   I both assume chess is a draw AND claim chess is a draw. This is based on a whole lot of evidence gathered over the years. Most of this evidence you are either not aware of or don't understand.

[it is very obvious you do not know most of the evidence]

As I said, it doesn't matter if there is a "whole lot of evidence", this is still a mathematical problem and as such, a proof is requiered to make a claim, then again, this has been said ad nauseum here.

 

Why is it a mathematical problem? Make your case.

Steinitz, who sought to put chess on a scientific foundation, asserted confidently that chess is a draw with best play. A century and a half later, we have far more reason to share his confidence. The preponderance of evidence demonstrates that chess is a draw with best play.

How is it not a mathematical problem? The simple fact that a proof can in principle be done through the mini-max algorithm already shows it's a mathematical problem. Regardless, I see you want to keep insisting on your evidence even though I already told you I believe chess is a draw so I implore you to stop being redundant.

Prometheus_Fuschs
GMproposedsolutions escribió:
pfren wrote:
iicsa έγραψε:

That is not an analogy.

 

Oh yes it is. There is not just a single proofing method in chess, as ell as several other sciences.

Squaring the circle is fairly easy, although not possible by using just classical geometry. 

Some still haven't given up on trisecting an angle.

As I said before, this thread just had to have some words altered to get opinions, not be asking true or false of something that cannot, at least presently, be proven.

 

In seeing engines go at it, I see around a rating of 3700 the draw rate with a comparable engine goes up to near 100% which tells me there's an upper limit in ratings right near that as opposed to some saying not and with some saying it's many hundreds of points higher (in our current non-robust system). If there is some way to wiggle into a forced win, we do not know but I believe chances of that are so slim to none now as there appears to be equalizing ability to prevent that, and even if a slight imbalance in pieces occurs, a blockade or perpetual checking dos the evening out. Still not a proof and I wouldn't use the word proved in this regard. I'd simply say it seems extremely unlikely that with "best play" from both sides that there can be anything but a draw.

This conclusion 3900 posts ago I suppose wouldn't stop this ongoing debate on account of the true or false aspect of the question.

Trisecting the angle with a ruler and compass has been proven to be impossible.

Prometheus_Fuschs
Ziryab escribió:
Prometheus_Fuschs wrote:
Ziryab escribió:
Prometheus_Fuschs wrote:
Ziryab escribió:

Evidence is not proof. Think about how courts look at it.

There is the evidence to indict, and there is the evidence to convict.
In a criminal trial, the evidence must remove all reasonable doubt.
In a civil trial, the standard is lower: preponderance of evidence.


Is there any reasonable doubt that chess is not a draw? No.


Then, there is mathematical proof.
We need stronger computers to reach that standard, perhaps.

Of course, but the question of the game state of chess is a mathematical problem, not a court ruling, let alone an empirical statement.

 

I think that one could make that case. But, I see people assuming it, not making it.

Point is: plenty of evidence has been presented in this thread that chess is a draw. The evidence is much stronger than anything presented to the contrary, but still falls short of mathematical proof.

The OP asked for a particular sort of evidence to refute his claim. No one has come forward with it.

Rather, they have claimed that he failed to prove a point that in fact all the evidence presented here supports.

There has been some limited evidence for chess not being a draw in this thread, namely, the increase of the ratio between white and black victories and the complexity of the opening position which dwarfs the complexity of endgames that had been long misevaluated. Regardless, you are right in that it's by far the most likely case that chess is a draw.

Getting aside from that, it's clear plenty of people in this thread including ponz are claiming chess is a draw, that's not the same as assuming chess is a draw.

 

There has been zero evidence to the contrary. The original question was simple: post a game where the loser did not err. No one has done that.

I already mentioned the evidence to the contrary... Regardless, you guys are being hypocritical in your request given the fact that what you are asking for is in fact, a proof that chess is not a draw.

DiogenesDue

The burden of proof lies with the person claiming a forced outcome.  Obviously.  And at current levels of human technology it has a next to zero chance of being proven in our lifetimes.  It's more likely that God will come down and give us the answer while being pulled along in a rickshaw by Bobby Fischer than it is that it will be mathematically proven by human built computers crunching out the full 32-piece tablebase within the next 75-100 years.

So the claim is pointless, and will remain pointless.

Ziryab
btickler wrote:
Ziryab wrote:

There has been zero evidence to the contrary. The original question was simple: post a game where the loser did not err. No one has done that.

Respectfully, that is the not the question posed by the subject line of this thread, and posting such a game would be meaningless to that question, as nobody, neither human or engine, is currently capable of making the claim "this game has no errors".  

Chess players are free to decide that it's all but assured that chess is a forced draw (or win).  As long as they don't claim it's proven when it is not.  Ponz has made this claim, after he broke this thread off from the "Will computers solve chess?" thread years ago to better control his narrative .

 

So, you read the title of the thread, but not the first post. Please do not post in any threads that I start.

https://www.chess.com/forum/view/general/true-or-false-chess-is-a-draw-with-best-play-from-both-sides?page=1

ponz111

btickler and others The name of this forum is "true or false-chess is a draw with best play from both sides?"  The name of this forum is NOT "Is there math proof that chess is a draw with best play from both sides?"

So people can look at all the evidence and can give an answer to the question of this forum. Many say they don't know the answer to the question. That is fine--THEY don't know. But very few who state they don't know have looked at all the evidence given.

There are a very few who are so radical as to say NO evidence has been given.  That is simply a lie.

There are some who say there must be math proof before they can say chess is a draw. They are ignoring that there are other ways to know something without math proof. 

For probably hundreds of years it was known by the best players that checkers is a draw with best play.

This was way before checkers was math proven to be a draw. How did they know? They knew because of all the evidence that checkers was a draw. Of course they knew a lot about checkers. 

In this forum we see much the same thing. The players who have only a little knowledge about how best to play strong  chess will tend to say they don't know that chess is a draw? But the strongest  players do know chess is a draw. When Magnus or a strong correspondence player plays his games--his game plan always assumes chess is a draw from the opening position. If the weak players became a lot more skilled--they too would understand chess is a draw.

Of course the fact that virtually all the strongest players know chess is a draw does not in itself prove chess is a draw--it is just one piece of evidence.

Those who do not know if chess is a draw or not should not try to tell others that those others don't know that chess is a draw.

And it is unfortunate that some including Mr. Prometheus go out of their way to disparage my chess ability. 

lfPatriotGames

Ponz

You are just repeating yourself. Everything you say, you've said before. You believe chess is a draw. Maybe it is. It PROBABLY is. But you can't prove it and neither can anyone else. You've mentioned checkers before, but that's not a good example because there is a first move advantage in chess, not in checkers. With "best play" the very best first move in checkers makes no difference. Same with tic tac toe. Now with horrible play, yes there is a first move advantage in checkers and tic tac toe. 

But this topic is about best play. And so far, nobody knows if best play produces a draw or win. Which means nobody knows if there is a first move advantage in chess. Right now there is, but only because of our limited knowledge. So of course you don't know chess is a draw. Neither does anyone else.

Someone else compared it to believing in God. Sure you might say you "know" it, but you really just believe. This belief probably comes from others not seeing the light, not believing what you believe, not weighing the evidence like you weigh it. But in the end chess is a math problem, so it doesn't matter how much you believe. Only proof matters. 100% is the only number that works. Otherwise we will just have to agree to disagree that nobody knows yet what the best outcome is. 

DiogenesDue
Ziryab wrote:

So, you read the title of the thread, but not the first post. Please do not post in any threads that I start.

https://www.chess.com/forum/view/general/true-or-false-chess-is-a-draw-with-best-play-from-both-sides?page=1

I've read it all.  As proven by my posts throughout this thread over the years.  You seem unaware of this.  Have you read it?  Ponz is trying to claim proof of the positive by asking for a refutation of the negative,  It's a logical fallacy. 

If the OP is inconsistent in the titling vs. the content, that's Ponz's problem, but the the subject of the post, along with Ponz's claims here, make it quite clear what he is going after.  You're also missing the context of Ponz starting this thread when he could not make any headway in the "Will computers solve chess?" thread.

NikkiLikeChikki
I actually haven’t seen any worthwhile evidence either way. Pointing to lots of draws on computers is meaningless since we’d expect the vast majority of games to end in draws. Indeed, the fact that there are so many decisive games could be construed that it’s a win. Could be that there are multiple lines that white could play where best defense is still a loss. Who tf really knows.

Aside from this, only rhetoric has been employed, and as I’ve said previously, absent concrete proof, just because you out-argue someone doesn’t mean you are right, it just means you argue better.
Legendary_Basilisk

Anyone who believes that chess is a forced win in the computer age is delusional. Modern computers have proven that chess is a draw. In the top levels of correspondence chess(where engines are allowed) there is a 97% draw rate. 

karthik1232

As i assume chess is a mental game you might wanna get good sat scores this i the first video I have made on it give me feedback and subscribe https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=to5CTBwgwBo

NikkiLikeChikki
97% draw is still 3% decisive. You only need one line to reject the null hypothesis of “draw.”
lfPatriotGames
Legendary_Basilisk wrote:

Anyone who believes that chess is a forced win in the computer age is delusional. Modern computers have proven that chess is a draw. In the top levels of correspondence chess(where engines are allowed) there is a 97% draw rate. 

If chess were a forced draw, why isn't the draw rate 99.99999% or even 100%? 97% sure leaves a lot of room for some other possibility. 

DiogenesDue
karthik1232 wrote:

As i assume chess is a mental game you might wanna get good sat scores this i the first video I have made on it give me feedback and subscribe https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=to5CTBwgwBo

Take your advertising elsewhere.

Legendary_Basilisk
lfPatriotGames wrote:
Legendary_Basilisk wrote:

Anyone who believes that chess is a forced win in the computer age is delusional. Modern computers have proven that chess is a draw. In the top levels of correspondence chess(where engines are allowed) there is a 97% draw rate. 

If chess were a forced draw, why isn't the draw rate 99.99999% or even 100%? 97% sure leaves a lot of room for some other possibility. 

Obviously because Modern engines and correspondence players aren't perfect.

lfPatriotGames
lfPatriotGames wrote:
Legendary_Basilisk wrote:

Anyone who believes that chess is a forced win in the computer age is delusional. Modern computers have proven that chess is a draw. In the top levels of correspondence chess(where engines are allowed) there is a 97% draw rate. 

If chess were a forced draw, why isn't the draw rate 99.99999% or even 100%? 97% sure leaves a lot of room for some other possibility. 

Now that I think about it, if modern computers have proven chess is a draw, the draw rate would be 100%. Proven is proven. There would never be any wins, by either side. Unless the computer made a mistake. In which case it wouldn't be proven. 

DiogenesDue
NikkiLikeChikki wrote:
97% draw is still 3% decisive. You only need one line to reject the null hypothesis of “draw.”

And eliminating 97% of games (ever position therein) still leaves over 10^40 possibilities for a winning line.

lfPatriotGames
Legendary_Basilisk wrote:
lfPatriotGames wrote:
Legendary_Basilisk wrote:

Anyone who believes that chess is a forced win in the computer age is delusional. Modern computers have proven that chess is a draw. In the top levels of correspondence chess(where engines are allowed) there is a 97% draw rate. 

If chess were a forced draw, why isn't the draw rate 99.99999% or even 100%? 97% sure leaves a lot of room for some other possibility. 

Obviously because Modern engines and correspondence players aren't perfect.

Yes. Which means they aren't performing best play. Which means it's  not proven. You said it was. 

Legendary_Basilisk
lfPatriotGames wrote:
Legendary_Basilisk wrote:
lfPatriotGames wrote:
Legendary_Basilisk wrote:

Anyone who believes that chess is a forced win in the computer age is delusional. Modern computers have proven that chess is a draw. In the top levels of correspondence chess(where engines are allowed) there is a 97% draw rate. 

If chess were a forced draw, why isn't the draw rate 99.99999% or even 100%? 97% sure leaves a lot of room for some other possibility. 

Obviously because Modern engines and correspondence players aren't perfect.

Yes. Which means they aren't performing best play. Which means it's  not proven. You said it was. 

Do you know what a hyperbole is?

ponz111

Nikki because you cannot see the evidence [or don't understand the evidence]--does not mean the evidence is not there.

At the Very top levels of correspondence chess there is all draws --not just 97%  Top levels of correspondence chess is much more than a human with an engine.

And as you state that you only need one line to to reject the null hypothesis of "draw" BUT after trillions of games played there has never been one such line.tongue.png